On October 9, the U.S. Department of Transportation suddenly issued a "proposed order" requiring China airlines to no longer fly over Russian airspace to fly Sino-US routes, and to "respond" within a 48-hour limit.
Behind this seemingly technical instruction lies a multiple game across airspace, trade and votes.
What's more unfortunate is that the ultimatum came at a coincidental time-just after American airlines complained about a three-year "year-end summary" of a loss of US$6 billion, the White House urgently needed to find a way for Trump.
What seems to be a conflict about air routes is actually another "political smoke bomb" thrown at Sino-US relations.
A self-directed and self-acting price game
On the surface, the reason for the U.S. Department of Transportation's ultimatum is very straightforward: Chinese airlines fly faster than the United States because they use Russian skies. American Airlines, on the other hand, was blocked from Russia, with long detour flights and high costs, and lost $6 billion in three years.
It sounds like a “flight unfair” business dispute, but it’s not that easy just by turning the timeline.
When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in 2022, the United States first jumped out to impose airspace sanctions on Russia, not allowing Russian Air Force to enter U.S. airspace. Russia is also not accustomed, directly counter: US Air Force does not want to fly Russian airspace.
Previously, American Airlines flew from New York to Beijing, 13 hours can be reached, now have to travel around the North Atlantic or the Middle East, more than 2 hours, the flight time has increased by 20%.
The American Airlines crew at Kennedy Airport in New York complained to us: "In the past, the crew could rest more when flying to Beijing. Now it takes more than 15 hours to fly. The fuel bill has increased a lot. Passengers always complain,'How come it's so slow than before?'
The fuel consumption increased, and the cost naturally increased. The lobby group “American Airlines” of US Airways estimated that US Airways earned less than $2 billion in market share each year because of the flight.
To put it bluntly, this is a chain reaction caused by the United States 'first sanctions. It has nothing to do with whether China airlines can fly into Russian airspace.
The starting point is the United States itself.
What about China Airlines? They flew over Russia and signed the agreement as early as 2018. They operated within an open legal and commercial compliance framework, and there was no "back door" problem.
Such airspace cooperation is permitted under the rules of the International Civil Aviation Organization and cannot compete with the "fraud" eight.
But in the US context, this has become "unequal competition." The Trump administration chose to turn a blind eye to the sanctions trap it had set, and instead put China airlines on the target, trying to turn the route issue into a narrative of "China takes advantage and we suffer losses."
Logic is like locking the door yourself and blaming the house next door for being able to come in and out freely.
In fact, the dilemma of U.S. airlines is not just a matter of flight routes. In the past three years, they have also faced a series of "internal troubles" such as labor shortages, management disorders, and aircraft delivery delays.
However, these cannot be used as political articles. The only line of "China Aviation Company flying into Russian airspace" is the most suitable for playing the "foreign enemy card."
Therefore, regardless of the actual situation in the industry, the Trump administration forcibly threw the pot to China, and also limited it to 48 hours "you must choose sides".
China has made it clear that aviation cooperation should not be politicized, everyone is equal in front of the rules.The United States has set its own limits, but wants others to settle for it, which is inevitably too loud.
The 48-hour ultimatum is a smoke bomb in the political show
The “proposed order” appears to have been issued by the Ministry of Transport, but the outside world knows who is behind it.
The Trump administration is currently in the outpost stage of the 2026 mid-term elections, and the aviation industry is one of the long-term gold owners of the Republican Party.
Political contributions from Delta, United Airlines and American Airlines have not fallen from year to year, and at this time a "justice for American Airlines" action is thrown out, which can both favor Mr. Kim and create a wave of "anti-Chinese positions" among conservative voters.
The wording of this document is also very particular. It does not take action directly, but it releases enough threats: "If we do not comply, we may completely ban Chinese airlines from November."
To put it bluntly, it is to hang a knife in the air, put pressure on China and give an explanation to domestic voters.
But the question is, does it really work? If we really do it, not only will China's aviation department be disturbed, but the global air transport chain will also be disrupted.
China-U.S. is one of the busiest civil aviation lines in the world, carrying hundreds of thousands of passengers and maritime freight needs.When the confrontation is interrupted or intensified, the first to suffer is not necessarily China, but the U.S. indigenous tourism, student market and multinational enterprises.
More importantly, it is not that China has no countermeasures to play. If the United States really dares to block China's airlines, China is likely to restrict US airlines 'aviation rights in China and even affect Boeing's orders in China.
This is tantamount to adding insult to injury for the already troubled American Airlines. In other words, if the United States steps off in this "gamble on navigation rights", it may lose faster.
A closer look at these 48-hour "ultimatum" is more like the Trump administration's usual script: crisis creation, external pressure, and selective demands.
However, this operation is not new on the international stage, and it is becoming more and more clear to the outside world. You can put pressure, but you can't change the reality: you have to bear the problems you cause after all.
Another front of the game.
Although this dispute is on the surface a matter of route, the pattern behind it is far more than an aviation field. This "airspace dispute" is actually an extension of the "high-tech, energy, supply chain, aviation" multiple fronts in China-US relations.
Especially in the current context, the Trump administration frequently hits China, the motivation is hard to think about.
In early October, the U.S. announced a new round of counter-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, and trade friction escalated again.
Looking forward, China has released new rules on rare-earth exports, and has strengthened control of foreign exports in the field of high-end magnetic materials.The "technical resource war" of the two countries is growing, and the aviation industry is the crossroads of this game.
Boeing's share in the China market has continued to decline in recent years, and Airbus has gradually replaced its dominant position.
The Trump administration has always hoped to use diplomatic or policy means to "open a breakthrough" for Boeing in the China market, and this aviation ultimatum is likely to be related to Boeing's bid for orders in China. In the name of "fair competition," pressure China to "make concessions" in other areas.
There is also a layer of calculation behind this: Trump knows that a paper ban has a huge impact, even if it is ultimately not implemented, it can play the effect of "bite the mountain shark".
Use administrative orders to create uncertainty and drag the Chinese airline into the quagmire of negotiations in exchange for more favorable bilateral agreements. This kind of "policy kidnapping" technique has been common in past Sino-US negotiations.
But China’s attitude is very clear: it will not accept discriminatory treatment in the name of security, nor will it accept unilateral hegemony that politicizes aviation.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China responded that airlines of various countries should compete fairly under international rules, and the United States should stop abusing administrative means to interfere in the international civil aviation market.
China is not opposed to negotiation, but it does not accept coercion. The Trump administration wants to use an ultimatum to force China to make concessions, and the result is likely to shoot itself in the foot.
ended
The "48-hour ultimatum" set by Trump this time seems aggressive, but it is actually a bluff. The dispute over the route is just an excuse. What we really want is a bargaining chip at the negotiating table, a topic in the election campaign, and a shift of domestic pressure.
But no matter how harsh the ultimatum is, it can't change the rules of reality or cover up its own predicament.
This chess between China and the United States, each step is not just a game, but also a test. and the next step, who goes right and steadily, is the key to deciding how to win.
Reference information: Observer Network: The United States wants to make another mistake: Chinese flights to and from the United States are banned from Russian airspace