On October 10, 2025, Trump posted several posts on his social platform, with a fierce tone and direct content. He said he would impose a 100% tariff on all goods from China, and also made word that he would consider not attending the upcoming "China-US meeting" during the APEC summit.
Not only did the operation upset Washington, but also pushed the global markets to the tip of the wave.The U.S. stock market crashed on the same day, and the media used the "Black Friday" to describe this sudden political storm.
On the surface, Trump is “irritated” with China.To look at it in detail, this actually involves three things: one is that he has no relationship with the Nobel Peace Prize again, the second is that China has just announced new rare-earth export restrictions, and the third is that his current political situation needs a “high-tone strike” to shift the focus.
The Nobel Prize failed, Trump lost control
Trump has always felt that he should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.He has openly expressed his desire for the prize many times before, and he feels that his “unprecedented” efforts on North Korea and the Middle East deserve recognition.
But the reality is that he has not even received official news of the nomination for many years since the awards were announced. In early October this year, the Nobel Committee announced the Peace Prize winners as usual, but Trump's name was still not found.
For Trump, who has always regarded “accomplishments” and “recognition” as heavy, it was a shameful failure.
He needed a stronger gesture to re-attract the eye and restore the “strong man’s image”. It was at this point that China issued a new rare-earth export policy. Trump’s succession saw this as a “provocation” and launched a direct counterattack.
So, this time he is tough on China, is not all political considerations, but more like a leak of emotions.
But this time it is different. The last time tariffs were launched resulted in the clearing of Sino-US agricultural trade. Farmers all believed that it was caused by Trump's tax increase. This time Trump will increase taxes again, which can be said to be disappointed with Trump again.
China's new rare earth regulations are a precise operation of "stuck neck"
Just a day before Trump’s anger, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced two new rules to tighten the control of rare earth exports.
The new regulations clearly state that as long as the products contain a certain proportion of Chinese rare earths or use Chinese rare earth technology and equipment, no matter which country they are produced in, they must be approved by Chinese officials before they can be exported.
This means that China not only controls the export of rare earth resources, but also extends its control to many links in the global supply chain. This practice is not uncommon in international trade. The United States itself has engaged in similar "long-arm jurisdiction" in the chip field. Now China has responded in a similar way, which is both legal and reasonable.
More importantly, China also prohibits companies and individuals from participating in key links in overseas rare earth processing without approval, directly blocking the United States 'attempt to establish an "alternative chain" overseas. This is not a simple market adjustment, but a clear red line is drawn in the supply chain. Anyone who wants to circumvent it must consider it.
From a Chinese perspective, this is not "revenge", but a strategic adjustment. Rare earth is not an ordinary commodity, it has a very high value in the fields of high-tech, military, energy, etc. China has long dominated this field, and now faced with external pressure, it is natural to protect its strategic resources through rules.
Trump made an attack at this time. It seemed like a response to China's "first move", but in fact it was more like a pretext. He needed an "enemy" to maintain his political rhythm, and this policy of China happened to be that target.
A 100% tax increase is loud, but it is difficult to implement
Trump said he would impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. It sounds fierce, but it's not so easy to really land. The current situation of the U.S. economy is not optimistic, inflationary pressures have not completely eased, and consumers are very sensitive to prices. If there is a comprehensive tax increase, the Americans themselves will ultimately pay the bill.
Moreover, many U.S. manufacturing enterprises rely on Chinese parts and raw materials. Once tariffs rise, costs will follow up, and these enterprises can’t withstand, and job cuts, price increases, and transfer costs are ahead.
More realistically, the United States is not monolithic. Chambers of commerce, enterprises and trade associations will jump out to oppose this extreme policy. There are also many people in the Republican Party who are afraid that this will hurt their own economy, and may not support it to the end. Therefore, this policy is more of a political statement than a decision to be implemented soon.
As for his threat not to attend the "Sino-US meeting", it is more like a negotiation strategy. In the past, Trump used to using meetings and dialogues as bargaining chips, shouting "quit" while waiting for the other party to give in. This operation also carries the same flavor. He knew that this high-pressure posture could create tension and hold the initiative in his hand.
But the problem is that the Chinese side is not in the rhythm.The response from the foreign sector has always been restrained and there is no emotional response.
This shows that China has long seen Trump’s path and does not intend to play with him.This calm approach, instead, makes the other party’s “threat” look more like a single-player play.
The real confrontation is in the supply chain and rules
This incident may seem to be an accidental incident, but in fact it reveals a new form of competition between China and the United States. In the past, the game was more at the superficial level of tariffs and trade deficits, but now it has penetrated into the underlying logic of rule-making and supply chain control.
Trump's call for tax increases seems to be very loud, but it is still the same old story. However, China's adjustment of rare earth policies this time does not rely on quantity, but on rules and systems to make it deeper and more accurate. This shows that China's role in the global supply chain is changing from "exporting in large quantities" to "controlling in key quantities."
For the United States, this is a big challenge. They have always hoped to reduce dependence through "de-Chinaization", but the reality is that many key links are inseparable from China in the short term. Not only rare earths, but also many basic materials and intermediate links, China still plays a key role. This kind of "stuck point" check and balance is more difficult for the United States to cope with.
Trump's fierce reaction illustrates this point. He understood that this was not an ordinary trade friction, but a precise attack on the U.S. industrial chain. But he did not propose a new solution, just repeated the same tune and responded with tax increases. This approach may make him appear "tough" in front of voters for a while, but it will not solve the supply chain problem.
conclusion
This wave, in the end, is the result of Trump’s personal emotions, campaign needs and China-US strategic game overlap. He didn’t get the Nobel Prize, he wasn’t happy in the heart, China was again on rare-earth policy, he was happy to tie the two together, creating a big news.
China's side is more calm, steadily playing a "rare earth card" through institutional means, and taking control of the initiative at the level of rules. The two modes of operation, one stimulating and the other stable, one emotional and the other institutionalized, form a sharp contrast.
In the future, the competition between China and the United States will no longer be the past "whoever buys more goods will suffer", but who can master the key nodes and who can make rules. Trump's tax increase card is not powerless, but its deterrent power is weakening in the face of China's increasingly mature counter-tools.
In the end, this storm may still end through dialogue. But the process will not be simple, because this is no longer just a transaction between the two countries, but a contest under the background of reshaping the global supply chain and restructuring technical rules. Trump's anger is only superficial, and the real test has just begun.