The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fighting to now, for more than three years, and the situation is becoming more and more sticky. Russia initially claimed to be in order to "de-Nazis" and protect the eastern region, forces directly advancing from multiple directions.
Ukrainian forces blocked the first wave of the offensive outside Kyiv, and Russia later withdrew from the north and instead concentrated its forces on Donbas and the south. In the summer of 2022, Ukraine's counteroffensive regained part of Kharkiv's territory, and in November it regained the city of Kherson.
But Russia is not idle. They captured Bakhmut in 2023. The battle was particularly tragic and both sides suffered heavy losses. Entering 2024, Ukraine tried to counterattack in the direction of Zaporizhzhia, but did not make much progress. The Russian defense line was too hard.
The Ukrainian military is now primarily defending, occasionally attacking Russian refineries and energy facilities with drones and missiles, such as recent attacks that have led to Russian gasoline shortages and rising prices.
As of 2022, the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries have given Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars in support. The total amount of aid approved by the United States is approximately $177 billion, of which the military aid accounts for the majority, approximately $100 billion.
But not all of this money was given to Ukraine. A lot of it remained in the United States to produce weapons and replenish inventories. The European Union has also given a lot of support in the form of loans, totaling more than 120 billion US dollars.
Zelensky mentioned in an interview with the Associated Press on February 1, 2025 that Ukraine actually received only about US $76 billion in military aid, and the rest went to neighboring countries or American companies. Many people don't understand this point, thinking that all the money has gone into Ukraine's pockets, but this is not the case.
Zelensky’s statements are becoming more and more realistic.He said at a press conference on February 23, 2025 that the aid proposed by the United States is too harsh, and later $2 per $1 military aid is returned, which is equivalent to 100% interest.
He directly rejected such clauses, saying that past aid was a grant, not a loan, and would not acknowledge any debt. Even after meeting with Trump, he publicly stated that he would not sign any agreement that would require ten generations of Ukraine to pay back the money.
Why are you so tough? Because Ukraine already owes huge foreign debts, which were quite a lot before the war, and now it is a huge mountain. In April 2025, Ukraine failed to reach a restructuring agreement with GDP-linked bondholders. These debts are tied to economic growth. If the economic recovery after the war is slow, the repayment pressure will be even greater.
Zelensky stressed that money is nothing more than losing a war, but it must also face the reality: aid is always conditional, and Western countries are not philanthropists.
After Trump took office, the U.S. policy toward Ukraine changed.On the day he took office on January 20, 2025, he ordered the freezing of all foreign aid for 90 days, including Ukraine.
At the end of February, Zelensky went to the White House to meet Trump and Wans, and had wanted to talk about the mineral deal, the United States wanted to take Ukrainian mineral resources in exchange for aid, but Zelensky refused, unless there were security guarantees.
As a result of the talks, Trump felt that Zelensky did not respect him and suspended all military aid, including ammunition and vehicles already on the road on March 4. This caused Ukraine to have trouble, a shortage of military ammunition and recruitment was also difficult, and in April 2025 the age of recruitment was reduced from 27 to 25, many young people were pulled to the frontline.
The Russian side seized the opportunity to advance in the direction of Avdiivka and Pokrovsk. The report on October 8 said that they hoped the Ukrainian resources would run out before winter.
However, Zelensky's attitude is softening. In the past, he insisted on restoring the 1991 borders, including Crimea, but now he mentions that the Crimea issue can be solved diplomatically, and he is willing to follow the Israeli model to build an army and rely on the defense system to block the attack.
In March 2025, he publicly said that ending the war may be far away, but he also invited Trump to come to Ukraine to see the front line. This sounds like seeking peace, but the reality is that Ukraine cannot live without Western support.
If aid is cut off, the army will not be able to withstand it. Russia now claims to have the strategic initiative. Putin said on October 9 that Moscow's offensive is continuing, and although Ukraine's long-range strikes have an impact, they cannot change the overall situation.
More than 280,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and wounded this year, and Ukrainian losses are also small, with Ukrainian Volunteers reporting in October that Russian attacks have intensified and civilian casualties have risen.
The debt issue is at the heart of the aid. The money the West gives is divided into several: donations, loans and arms aid. The EU is mostly loans, and the United States has also tried loans before, but later found it could not repay, and turned into aid.
However, there are tricks in weapons assistance. Many of them are old inventories or production contracts, and the actual value is not so high. Zelensky said on February 26, 2025 that he would not accept even a 10-cent repayment clause because Ukraine's sovereignty would not allow it.
He also mentioned that Israel, Saudi Arabia and other countries have different aid conditions. Why does Ukraine have to double the aid? This has hit the pain points of many people. Western aid does have geopolitical calculations, not pure help.
Ukraine now owes foreign debt to the mountains, after-war reconstruction will take trillions of dollars, a generation not yet.Zelensky's goal is to receive $1 billion monthly aid from the West, but on September 30, 2025, he said he hoped to stabilize the flow of funds through the agreement.
The conflict entered a new stage. Russia was attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure with missiles. On October 10, a power outage occurred in Kiev, leaving 270,000 households without power. It was later restored with Polish assistance.
Ukraine responded, attacking Russian gas facilities and trying to block fuel supplies, but the Russian economy was able to withstand, and although gasoline prices rose, it did not collapse.
Speaking of aid on the other side of NATO, German Prime Minister Martin Schulz proposed a substantial increase in defense spending in March 2025, influenced by Trump and Zelensky's dispute. France and Britain also wanted to participate in the negotiations, Zelensky welcomed Stammer and Macron's help, but Trump did not buy the bill.
From Zelensky’s realistic attitude, he knew that aid was not a free lunch, debt repayment or concessions.
Speaking on 28 February 2022 in Belarus, there was no result. At the 2024 Swiss Peace Summit, Russia did not go. In October 2025, the conflict entered the 1324th day, Russia continued to attack the east, and the Ukrainian army defended in the direction of Chernigov.
The problem of desertion is serious, with 160,000 Ukrainian deserters in the first nine months of this year. Zelensky's "victory plan" was changed to a "peace plan", including suggestions from China and Brazil, and emphasizing dialogue. But the West has not abandoned Ukraine, the EU is still giving money, and the United States may resume some aid after the suspension.
In the long run, Ukraine will have to pay its debts for a generation. Pay off part of the loan within 30 years and delay the rest. At the end of the war, reconstruction was a problem and mineral resources became a bargaining chip. The United States wants a piece of the pie, but Zelensky will not budge unless there is a NATO-style guarantee.
But Trump was not interested, saying the war in Ukraine was "unnecessary bloodshed." Zelensky fought back, saying not to aid was risking World War III. This makes sense. The risk of conflict spillover is high, and the European energy crisis is still ongoing.
Conclusion:
Ukraine loses its population and territory, the Russian economy is wounded, the West spends money on security.Zelensky recognizes the reality, is smart, but cannot change the overall situation.
Aid is not a gift, it has to be paid back. In the future, Ukraine will have to be self-reliant and rely less on foreign debt. Russia also has to face the aftermath of sanctions. Peace depends on compromise, not crushing by one party. I hope it ends soon and there are no more casualties.