hot question and answer| What are the variables brought about by the sudden rupture of Japan's ruling coalition

Tetsuo Saito, leader of the Komeito Party of Japan, met with sanae takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, on the 10th, and conveyed the Komeito Party's decision to withdraw from the ruling coalition. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party have formed a ruling coalition since 1999, and have always maintained a cooperative relationship. Why did it suddenly break down at this time? Will this affect Takaichi's election as prime minister? What impact does it have on Japan's domestic and foreign affairs?

Why did the Party withdraw?

On the same day, the meeting between Saito and Takaichi lasted about one and a half hours. Saito said at the subsequent press conference that the Komeito Party would end its long-standing joint ruling relationship with the Liberal Democratic Party because it did not get a satisfactory answer from the Liberal Democratic Party on the rectification of "black money politics". Saito also said that in the future, the Komeito Party "will not blindly take an opposition to the Liberal Democratic Party" in Congress, but will make judgments according to specific policy contents.

For the next prime minister's nomination election, Saito said that he would not write "takaichi sanae" on the ballot paper, but would vote for himself.

Takashi won the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party held on the 4th of this month and was elected as the 29th president of the Liberal Democratic Party. For the withdrawal of Komeito Party, Takashi said at the press conference that he felt very sorry.

Noda Yoshihiko, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, the largest opposition party in Japan, said on the morning of 10th that during the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party, all candidates talked about "expanding the ruling coalition", but on the issue of maintaining the coalition, they lacked due attention to the partner Komeito Party, which had cooperated for more than 20 years, which may be the reason why Komeito Party had a strong sense of crisis.

Will he be elected prime minister?

For Takashi Saami to become prime minister, he still needs to be elected by the prime minister. Although the withdrawal of the Komeito Party from the ruling coalition will bring certain variables, judging from the number of seats held by each political party in the National Assembly, Takashi is still likely to succeed Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister.

The Prime Minister's nomination election is held in the House of Representatives and the Senate respectively. If a candidate gets more than half of the votes in the first round of voting, he can win directly. If no one gets more than half of the votes, then the top two candidates will enter the second round of voting to decide the outcome, and the one with more votes wins.

The Japanese Constitution stipulates that when the Plenary Session of the two Houses of the People's Republic of Japan shows different results in the election of the Prime Minister, the two Houses of the People's Republic of Japan are negotiated by the two Houses of the House of Representatives.

According to the official website of the Japanese House of Representatives and Senate, the self-government party currently has 196 seats in the House of Representatives of all 465 seats, the self-government party has 24 seats; the self-government party has 100 seats in the Senate of all 248 seats, and the self-government party has 21 seats.

As the Communist Party withdraws from the ruling coalition, the Democratic Party becomes even more distant from the 233 and 125 seats required by the majority in the House of Commons. However, the Democratic Party remains the largest political party in Congress. If the opposition cannot unite, in the case of no majority in the first round of voting, the High City can still win with a majority in the second round of voting.

Regarding the current situation, the Constitutional Democratic Party said that as long as the opposition parties unite, it is not impossible to achieve regime change. However, the Constitutional Democratic Party has only 148 seats in the House of Representatives, and even with the seats of Komeito Party and the left-wing Japanese Communist Party, it cannot surpass the Liberal Democratic Party. To overthrow the Liberal Democratic Party, the Constitutional Democratic Party must gain the cooperation of at least one of the Japan Reform Association and the National Democratic Party. However, the policy propositions of these two parties are quite different from those of the Constitutional Democratic Party, and it is difficult to reach cooperation. At the same time, Takashi is also considering winning the support of the National Democratic Party. Whether Takaichi can become prime minister or not depends on the result of the game between political parties.

Impact on internal diplomacy

Even if High City succeeded in being elected Japanese prime minister, High City will also face many challenges in domestic and foreign affairs because of the Party's withdrawal from the ruling coalition.

First of all, after the Komeito Party withdraws, if Takashi cannot form a ruling coalition with other political parties, the Liberal Democratic Party will govern alone, and it will be more difficult to implement policies in the future, and the political turmoil may further intensify. Even if Takaichi forms a ruling coalition with the Japan Reform Association, which has 35 seats in the House of Representatives, the total number of seats will not be more than half.

Second, according to Japanese media reports, the prime minister's named election may be postponed until after the 20th of this month, which means that the "political vacuum" will be extended. As a rule, all Japanese cabinets often resign on the day of the election named by the prime minister. After the new prime minister is elected and takes office, a new cabinet is formed to complete the transition of power. Therefore, although Takashi has become the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Shigeru Ishiba is still the prime minister. This situation is also called the "General Secretary Separation" situation in Japan, that is, the Prime Minister (Prime Minister) and the President are not the same person. During this "political vacuum" period, it may be difficult for the government to introduce effective policies.

Third, political instability may affect Japan's diplomacy. According to the plan, Shigeru Ishiba's successor will usher in a series of diplomatic activities. Japan and the United States are coordinating on U.S. President Trump's visit to Japan at the end of this month, and the APEC Leaders 'Informal Meeting is about to be held in South Korea. Japan's new prime minister has postponed his appointment, and the preparation time for a series of important foreign affairs activities is bound to be shortened, which may adversely affect Japan.

Source: Xinhua News Agency

Reporters: Chen Zhejiang, Liu Xiaobo