Trump just revealed that the Ukrainian "Tax" missile made "some decision", Putin immediately strongly responded: not only to upgrade the air defense system counteraction, but also officially announced that "has mastered the testing of the target new weapons, the recent public debut". on the one hand, the range of 2,500 kilometers, can cover Moscow cruise missiles, on the other hand, is unclear but sufficiently deterrent "mysterious equipment", overlap the game of the New Strategic Weapons Reduction Treaty extension, the tension of the US Russian military role has filled Eastern Europe.
1. Timeline coincidence: the linkage between Trump's "temptation" and Putin's "counter-measure"
The connection of time nodes in this space contest between the United States and Russia is by no means accidental.
On October 6, Xinhua news agency disclosed Trump's latest response: when asked whether to pin the "war ax" of Ukraine, he did not directly deny, only emphasized "to first clarify the use of Ukraine", and added that "not wanting to see the escalation of the war."This seems to be room, in fact is to throw the "possible aid" test - to know that the "war ax" bullethead weighs 400-450 kilograms, the range is enough to cover the Russian depth, once the Ukrainian army is delivered, Moscow will be in the range of strike, Russia naturally can not sit.
Putin then gave a tough response: if the United States dared to deliver the "strike ax", the Russian side must upgrade the deployment of air defense. More impactful is his supplementary statement: "China's new weapons test results are excellent, will be officially shown in the near future".
What is intriguing is that Putin specifically mentioned the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty: "There is still preparation time, and the extension will be beneficial to both sides, otherwise strategic weapons will lose their restraint." While releasing new weapons signals and talking about treaty extension, it is like shining muscles in the left hand and leaving steps in the right hand, firmly grasping the initiative in deterrence and negotiation.
2. Weapon conjecture: An air defense weapon aimed at the "Tomahawk"?
Putin did not disclose the specific model of the new weapon, but it is not difficult to judge based on the context. This high probability is a targeted counter-attack against the "Tomahawk" air defense equipment, and behind it is a direct response to actual combat needs.
The existing Russian air defense system is not weak, the S-400 and S-500 have been deployed several sets, of which the S-500 has a range of 600 kilometers, can intercept high-speed targets. but the Turkish defense characteristics of the "tacks" are quite threatening: low-air cruise radar, can also fly along the ground, before the Russian Ukrainian battlefield there were cases of Ukrainian modified missiles break through the Russian air defense. If the United States really delivered the "tacks", the security pressure on the Russian border and even the core region will increase sharply.
The military circle gave two reasonable speculations: one is an upgraded derivative of the S-500--The reaction speed is faster than that of active equipment, and it can simultaneously lock multiple low-altitude small targets, specifically targeting cruise missiles such as the "Tomahawk"; The second is new global electromagnetic interference equipment—— can accurately interfere with the navigation signal of the “Taxic Axis” and make its loss of target a waste iron. Whichever “good test” statements indicate that Russia is prepared before the United States takes a crucial step.
This kind of vague disclosure is Putin's brilliance. Unclear models can not only whet the other party's appetite, create poor information, but also amplify the deterrent effect-you can't guess the trump cards in my hand, so naturally you dare not cross the line easily. This kind of "unknown deterrence" gets twice the result with half the effort than straightforward weapons.
3. Calculation between the two sides: the game of interests behind the weapons
1. Putin's dual demands
Tactically, the "Tomahawk" is Russia's security red line.If the Ukrainian army has it, it can attack Russian local military bases and energy facilities without advancing the front line. Putin's talk of upgrading air defense + lighting up new weapons is to break the thoughts of the United States and Ukraine: Don't think that relying on the "Tomahawk" can dominate, Russia has already prepared countermeasures. This can also stabilize the hearts of the people in the country. Recently, drone attacks on Russia's border have occurred frequently, and people have doubts about air defense capabilities. Official announcements of new weapons are equivalent to giving "reassurance."
Strategically, new weapons are a bargaining chip in treaty negotiations.The new Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Weapons is the final cornerstone of US-Russian strategic stability, and Putin has made it clear that the withdrawal from the treaty is "wrong and short-sighted."He revealed the new weapons, in fact, is to pass on the "breakability capacity": if the treaty is not negotiated, the Russian side has the power to develop more new equipment, when the strategic weapons out of control is not a good thing for the United States.
Trump's Two Difficult Situations
Although Trump called it a "certain decision," he has not implemented it. The core is the trade-off between campaign and security. On the one hand, the "Tomahawk" aiding Ukraine can please domestic hawks and create a "tough image", which is a ready-made campaign achievement; On the other handHe was afraid to anger Russia — if Putin’s new weapons were really subversive, or if Russia increased its struggle against Ukraine, the escalation of the war would instead lose votes, and therefore left the way with the “purpose of questioning”.
The United States is more aware of the importance of the treaty: without constraints, Russia will develop new weapons without a doubt, the security cost of the United States will rise dramatically. Trump took the "tacks" trial, wanted to force the Russian side to make concessions on the treaty, not expecting Putin to directly unveil new weapons, in turn let himself fall into passivity.
4. Trend of the situation: Deterrence is the key, negotiation is the key
The essence of this game is "military psychological warfare", and the probability of the situation getting out of control is extremely low.Putin's core is "stop loss": preventing the "Tomahawk" from aiding Ukraine and maintaining the stability of the treaty. New weapons are only deterrent tools to achieve goals. There is a high probability that they will "show their muscles" at military parades or military exhibitions, rather than be used in actual combat. The United States is also calculating the cost: the unit price of "Tomahawk" is US $1.5 million, and the batch aid costs a lot. It is even more afraid that Russia will counter-attack in the energy and Middle East fields. Trump will most likely only shout slogans and send short-range missiles to deal with it.
In the short term, The Russian “show muscles” will be more intense: Russia may deploy new weapons to create momentum, and the United States will continue to haggle with its allies about the details of assisting Ukraine. But the ultimate breakthrough still lies in the treaty negotiations-if the two sides reach a consensus, the United States may give up its "Tomahawk" aid to Ukraine, and Russia will "postpone" the display of new weapons; if the talks fail, tensions in Eastern Europe may escalate again.
A few words.
Putin's new weapon is a red line and an olive branch for the United States; Trump's "certain decision" is a test that is difficult to get down.In this game, no one wants to touch the "war escalation" minefield, but they all rely on "shining their muscles" to fight for chips. For Russia, new weapons are both an "amulet" and a "negotiating table"; for the United States, the "Tomahawk" is a "pressure tool" and a "hot potato." The outcome may be hidden in the dual rhythm of the unveiling of new weapons and treaty negotiations.