The cold winter has not yet really arrived, but Ukraine's energy system has collapsed by half ahead of schedule.
On October 3, the Russian Aerospace Force launched a new round of strong strikes on the gas mining facilities of the Naftogaz Group (the Ukrainian State Oil and Gas Company).
According to the Washington Post, the general manager of the group revealed that related facilities in Kharkiv Oblast and Poltava Oblast were "attacked by 35 missiles and 60 drones, many of which were ballistic missiles."
Why are the Russians looking at Ukraine’s energy networks and daring to give “one week” such a short deadline?
Symmetric game, asymmetric life
The logic on the battlefield is sometimes scary: you hit me, and I have to give you a shot.The logic is playing out in the energy warfare.The Russian strike is becoming more and more systematic, and it is no longer a zero-break.
Just on October 3, the Russian Air Force dispatched about 35 missiles and 60 drones, many of which were powerful ballistic missiles, to carry out a devastating attack on natural gas facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava Oblast, hitting the energy heart of eastern and central Ukraine.
Their special forces also immediately launched a counterattack, targeting energy facilities in the Russian state of Volgograd, including the important "Luk Oil-Korobkovsky" gas treatment plant in the south of Russia.
The Ukrainian side claims that with only five rounds of strikes within a week, it has successfully affected more than 20% of Russia's oil refining capacity.
However, the consequences of this seemingly "symmetrical" fight are completely "asymmetrical". For Russia, this may be a temporary damage to production capacity. But for Ukraine, this is already a suffocating blow of life and death.
After two months of continuing bombing, Ukraine’s natural gas production capacity has been destroyed by 60 percent, which means that to survive this winter, they urgently need to import an additional 4.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas from abroad, which accounts for one-fifth of their national annual total consumption.
Where's the money? The Ukrainian government has a long-term fiscal deficit and can't afford this money at all. The cost estimated by the media ranges from 800 million to 1.2 billion euros, and there are even claims that it may be as high as about 2.2 billion dollars.
This astronomical hole can only be filled by international aid or bank loans. Although the European Union has set up a 50 billion euro aid fund to Ukraine, the use of the funds has already been planned and the approval process is slow, which is really far from quenching the thirst.
The collapse of energy directly led to military paralysis. A massive power outage was catastrophic for the Ukrainian army. Fixed nodes and communications relay stations at the command station would instantly fail. Front soldier drones, tactical tablets had no place to charge.
Logistics supply lines will also be interrupted.Intelligence transmission slows, artillery strike accuracy decreases, troop coordination falls into chaos...even large, fixed air defense systems that rely on electricity have difficultyining normal combat readiness.
This has further increased Ukraine's dependence on external weapons, but the problem is that the donors 'own weapons inventories are almost bottoming out.
Red Line Bumpy and the Global Firearms Barrel
The most frightening thing about this energy war is that it is constantly testing and even crossing red lines that were once considered untouchable, leading the risk of conflict to the two most dangerous areas: nuclear security and NATO's direct intervention.
Just on October 7, a drone was intercepted and detonated near the cooling tower of the Voronezh nuclear power plant in Russia. Although no damage to the core facilities was caused, this scene was enough to make the whole world break out in a cold sweat.
Putin issued a warning of a "mirror response" in response, implying that if Russia's nuclear power plant is attacked again, Russia may take reciprocal countermeasures.
Don’t forget that before this, the new safety shelter at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant had also been damaged by drone attacks.
If the nuclear risk still has a vague threat, then the friction with NATO is more direct. On the night of October 9, eight Russian drones entered the airspace of NATO member Poland for the first time.
Polish Prime Minister Tusk directly characterized this matter as a potential "large-scale provocation", which is by no means diplomatic rhetoric. In response, the European Parliament quickly passed a resolution, providing a legal basis for EU countries to shoot down Russian military aircraft or drones that violated their airspace.
This indicates that Europe's response posture is shifting from passive defense to active interception, and the possibility of direct military friction has suddenly increased.
Ukraine is not only an energy consumer, it is also an important hub for the transport and storage of natural gas in Europe.
Once Ukraine’s energy system is completely paralyzed, its chain reaction will directly impact the stability of Europe’s energy supply and market prices, putting the economic cost of the war on the bill of every European household.
Bleeding wounds after the war
Even if the gunfire ceases, the trauma that this energy war has caused to Ukrainian society will continue to bleed for a long time in the future.
The United Nations report clearly states that the ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure are a major reason for the displacement of Ukrainians.The July 2024 data show that half of those who choose to leave their homes have put energy as their primary reason.
You can imagine the scene: severe winter is coming but there is no heating. Cities fell into darkness, schools were forced to close and factories were shut down. The thermal power plant owned by DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, has been attacked more than 200 times.
This systematic destruction means that the national reconstruction will face an astronomical bill and a desperately long time period. The lasting destruction is firmly tied to Ukraine's post-war economic recovery and social development, making it bear the heavy consequences of this energy war in the next few years or even decades.
conclusion
These effects will persist for a long time after the end of the war. Rebuilding the damaged energy infrastructure requires a lot of time and resources, which means that even if the conflict ends tomorrow, the people of Ukraine will still suffer the consequences of these attacks for a long time.
But from the current situation, it is not easy for Ukraine to resolve these issues in a week.
If the requirements of the Russian military cannot be met, it is almost a high probability that the energy network in western Ukraine will be hit. By then, whether it is military operations, industrial production or people's livelihood security, Ukraine will fall into a more difficult situation.