In October, a sudden wave of air strikes completely stunned Ukraine.
Ukraine President Zelensky, who was still talking about the "results of the counterattack" in the media a while ago, was instantly slapped in the face by reality.
Russia did not beat around the bush this time. It went straight to the theme and specifically picked Ukraine's "lifeblood"-the energy system.
This is not an ordinary strike, but a prepared, orderly, quick and accurate strike.
As a result, the whole of Ukraine has fallen into the true sense of "gas-out", watching the winter coming, and tens of millions of people's heating and electricity use have become a problem.
This blow is not only a victory or defeat at the military level, but also a strategic contest.
Ukraine believed that by several drone strikes, the situation could be pushed back, and it did not think that Russia had already arranged the situation, waiting for a rebel.
Zelensky may have felt the smell of victory too early. Now it seems that this war is far from time to breathe a sigh of relief.
The Russians are weak and striking.
This time, Russia did not play a game, did not disperse its strikes as it did before, but directly targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
In the past, the Russian army mainly attacked the power system, resulting in short-term power outages, but this time it was completely different, targeting the natural gas production and transmission system.
Once the energy is paralyzed, the operation rhythm of the entire country will be in chaos, not to mention how ordinary people will survive the winter.
From the perspective of combat methods, the Russian army adopted a very systematic style of play this time.
Not striking one or two places, but continuously striking and destroying key nodes in a rhythm.
This shows that Russia is not temporarily engaged, but has prepared intelligence in advance, knowing where it will hurt the most.
More importantly, this type of strike is not only intended to damage Ukraine militarily, but to completely overthrow the enemy on a psychological and life level.
For Ukraine, energy is not only the economic lifeline, but also the guarantee for people to spend the winter.
Once natural gas is disrupted on a large scale, not only is the heating problem, but even industry, transportation and basic life are severely affected.
It’s like a man who’s stuck in his throat and hasn’t even the strength to speak.
Russia obviously wants to use this method to exhaust Ukraine's will to resist little by little, forcing it to bow its head.
The Zelensky administration thought that the counterattack would disrupt the Russian deployment, and did not think that it would find itself in greater trouble.
The actions of the Russian military were very clear, not to play a war of consumption with you, but to directly dismantle the system that you depend on.
If you hit my refinery, I will make it impossible for the whole country to warm up, and this way, with teeth and teeth, will make Ukraine invincible.
Instead of fighting against Ukraine, they set fire.
In the face of Russia’s heavy strike, Ukraine, of course, did not sit down.
Soon, the Ukrainian army dispatched drones to attack oil refining facilities in Russia, trying to create pressure with "asymmetric strikes."
This approach has indeed impacted Russia’s energy exports in the short term, but the problem is that the consequences are coming very quickly.
Ukraine's counterattack may seem tough, but it is actually extremely risky.
As the world's major energy power, once Russia's refining system is damaged, not only its own country will be affected, but the entire international market will fluctuate accordingly.
And this shock will ultimately affect Ukraine itself.
Because once oil and gas prices rise, the cost of aid from Western countries will increase, and support efforts will naturally weaken.
To make matters more complicated, Ukraine thinks it has hit the key point, but ignores Russia's adaptability.
Russia quickly adjusted its export direction, rearranged its energy sales channels, and shifted some exports to Asian countries.
In this way, although the western front was damaged, the eastern front was immediately repaired, which did not put Russia in much trouble at all.
On the other hand, it was Ukraine, which caused disappointment in the West because of its “excessive attack.”
While the Western countries continue to support Ukraine in their mouths, they are actually playing drums in their hearts.
On the one hand, war escalates and slows down the global economy.
On the other hand, it also questions Ukraine's strategic judgment.
After all, this war has been going on for years, everyone is tired and does not want to be taken away anymore.
Zelensky originally wanted to use this to make his allies more determined to take sides, but the result made the other party more hesitant.
This also reveals a problem: a war is not won by momentary courage, nor can it be reversed by a few beautiful attacks.
What really determines the outcome is who can stabilize the overall situation and who can control key resources.
Ukraine's current play, more like the battle of the beast, fights, but after the battle is over, but can not finish.
Western aid shrinks, Ukraine is isolated
This energy battle has not only plunged Ukraine into domestic trouble, but also caused it to suffer from a cold stream diplomatically.
The previously promised West has now begun to refine and refine the aid repeatedly.
It was not that they were unwilling to help, but that they began to wonder: Is the war in Ukraine worth continuing to invest money?
Opinions within the EU are divided, and some countries have begun to discount aid due to their own energy security considerations.
Some key technologies are no longer unconditionally available and funding is slowing.
Ukraine had hoped to support this winter with external aid, and now it seems that even this “support” has begun to loosen.
The United States has also begun to adjust its pace.
Some of the originally promised weapons were delayed in delivery, and the aid program became vague.
Although it still says "firm support" in lip service, it has begun to control risks in actual actions and avoid completely tearing up with Russia.
This change in attitude is undoubtedly a heavy blow to Ukraine.
More complicated, the contradictions inside the West are also growing.
Some countries feel that Ukraine’s counterattack is too radical to trigger a new energy crisis.
Others worry that if aid wanes, it will make Russia even more arrogant.
This vacillating attitude has put Ukraine in an "unreliable" predicament.
The Zelensky government is still calling for "continued assistance", but more and more voices are beginning to question:
Does Ukraine really have clear strategic goals?
Can aid be converted into tangible results?
If the answer is unclear, aid will naturally not flow endlessly.
War enters deep water, Ukraine faces real test
Now Ukraine is not only facing victories on the battlefield, but the operational capacity of the whole country is being weakened a bit.
The destruction of the energy system is only the beginning, and it may also involve infrastructure, supply chain, financial system and other levels.
This is a system attack from the outside, not a one or two victories can be reversed.
The difficulty of the Zelensky government lies inining the situation of war, stabilizing people's livelihoods and addressing the weakness of external aid.
These three restrain each other, and a little carelessness will completely collapse.
Russia, on the other hand, is gradually advancing its own pace, holding the situation firmly in its own hands in a "draw-and-draw" way.
The bigger problem is the feelings of the people.
When the heating system goes down, the cost of living rises, and there is no hope in sight for the future, popular support will also waver.
War is not a sprint, but a marathon. Whoever can survive until the end is qualified to talk about victory.
Now it seems that Ukraine's endurance is constantly being consumed, while Russia is becoming more and more stable.
In this context, the Zelensky government needs not only to inspire morality, but also to rethink its strategy and find a path that can truly bring about change.
Otherwise, Western aid alone and a few tactical raids will not last long.
This battle is not about who can win, but who cannot hold it first
The war has been fought so far, it is no longer who has the most weapons and the big position, but who can withstand the pressure and maintain the rhythm.
Although Ukraine frequently takes strategic counterattacks, it is itself who is really hurt.
Russia used a set of "attacking the weak spots" methods to push Ukraine to the brink of survival.
Zelensky may have thought that a few victories could reverse the situation.
But the reality is that war is not a stage play, audiences don't applaud all the time, allies don't always be generous.
When energy is pinched, aid is shrinking, and people's hearts are shaken, the real test for Ukraine has just begun.
The war is not over yet, but Ukraine has already felt the taste of “lose.”
Perhaps it was in this "invisible victory" that Russia tightened the pace step by step and shifted the war from the front line to the life of every Ukraine.
The outcome or defeat of the war will not be written on the map in the end, but will be branded in people's daily life.