The Red Army city in northern Donetsk seems to be just an inconspicuous dot on the map, but on the battlefield, this place has become the key to the Eastern Front.
According to Russian media reports, Ukraine is facing the embarrassing situation of defeat in the direction of the Red Army City. Russian expert Gakin mentioned that the Russian army has gradually seized multiple areas of the Red Army City, and now the countdown to victory has entered.
As soon as these words were uttered, it felt that the war situation had been settled. The Ukrainian side had completely collapsed, and the Russian side had victory in sight? But if you really spread out the timeline and information from all parties, the scene is actually not that simple, and it can even be said that it is far from the final stage.
The rumored "total collapse"?
In early October, Russian media frequently that "the Red Army city has been completely occupied by the Russian army", and Russian military experts directly said that "the Ukrainian defense here has completely failed."
At the same time, Kiev's response was to order to stop the increase in troops, as if this order symbolized that the Ukrainian army once again faced the unavoidable reality in this war of attrition: broken logistical support, collapsed morale, and strategic mistakes, leading to the overall collapse of the Ukrainian army's defense line.
But sometimes victory or defeat on the battlefield is not just decided by guns and guns. News that sounds extremely explosive, such as "Kiev orders a stop to troop increases", is often part of psychological warfare.
This news is circulating everywhere, coupled with the saying that a large number of Ukrainian soldiers surrendered or fled their positions. The purpose is to create an atmosphere in which the morale of the Ukrainian army is collapsing and its troops are defeated.
To date, however, no reliable public documents can confirm this “stop-up” order. On the contrary, the Ukrainian military’s public statement is that they are actively mobilizing forces to try to block Russian infiltration. This makes that order look more like a means of propaganda than a tactical decision.
The Russian side claims that it has won mainly through these few things:
First, to say that he has taken control of the entire battlefield; secondly, to move out the data, to say that from the beginning of this year to now he has occupied five thousand square kilometers of land; and to add some especially emotional words, such as “this may be the greatest outcome of the year.”
But when we turn our eyes from propaganda slogans to the ground, we see a different picture through satellite images and geolocation videos.
The Russian army has indeed made progress in some villages and towns, but there is still a long way to go before completing the strategic encirclement of Pokrovsk. It is obviously too early to assert that "the victory is set".
Like a front.
If the two sides were to remove the propaganda, the actual situation in Pokrovsk would be similar to a brutal sawing war. The front form is described here as a rubber thread that is repeatedly stretched, extremely unstable, and both sides are consuming each other in their best ways.
The pattern of the Russian army's attack is clear: small-scale sharp forces penetrate like a sharp knife, and in the air there are a large number of sliding bombs for intensive coverage and suppression.
The Ukrainian army's response is full of the characteristics of modern warfare. They use drone clusters extensively, not only for reconnaissance, but also directly for strikes.
At the same time, relying on highly mobile counterattack forces, we quickly counter-encircled the invading Russian troops. According to the report of the Ukrainian General Staff from the end of September to the beginning of October, the average number of battles per day in this area exceeds one hundred, making it one of the fiercest areas on the entire front.
This is a typical unequal competition. The Russian army has more advantages in terms of strength, industrial production capacity and heavy ammunition.
The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, has more experience in the tactical use of drones, the efficiency of the anti-artillery network and the fight against enemy targets behind them.
Why take it down here?
Both sides have invested such enormous resources in this city, even at the expense of blood, because of its irreplaceable strategic value.
First, we must clarify the fact that the “city of the Red Army” we are discussing is Pokrovsk, not Krasnohorsk, which was occupied by the Russians in September this year, and confusing the two would lead to a serious misjudgment of the battle scene.
Pokrovsk is a veritable choke point. It is not only an important railway transportation hub, but also an important highway leading to the two core urban agglomerations of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
Once the Russian army successfully carries out a pincer offensive here and cuts off the Ukrainian army's supply lines, the Ukrainian army's defense line throughout northern Donetsk may fall one after another like dominoes.
This explains why Moscow regards it as a "major victory" because it may force Ukrainian troops to completely withdraw from Donetsk.
For Kiev, holding here means stabilizing the entire war zone. The outcome or defeat of this battle may even directly affect the military support determination of American and European Union friends. If Ukraine fails to demonstrate effective defense capabilities, it will face extremely unfavorable conditions at the negotiating table in the future.
conclusion
So instead of listening to either side's "victory is in sight" or "collapse is imminent" propaganda, pay attention to a few more tangible variables.
The direction of the future battlefield depends on whether the Russian army’s shaped offensive can truly unite and effectively control the traffic line. It also depends on whether the Ukrainian army’s anti-infiltration operation will continue to be efficient. More importantly, the ammunition and drone supply speed of both sides, who can persist longer in this consuming war.
Until these critical questions were clearly answered, the most appropriate description of the situation in Pokrovsk remained a massive, risky, and unshakable clutch confrontation between the two sides.
Any premature assertion may be ruthlessly slapped in the face by the rapidly changing reality on the battlefield.