Preliminary
Kuala Lumpur storm suddenly!
Trump issued an "ultimatum" to Malaysia, the host of the ASEAN summit, demanding that China be "kicked out" at the scene of the peace agreement, and even plotting rare earths and coercing them to take sides.
However, in less than 24 hours, China and Malaysia held an unprecedented joint military exercise and used thunderous means to declare a firm stance, completely disrupting Trump's wishful thinking.
A big gamble before the summit
In late October, as the world’s eyes were focused on the upcoming 47th ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, a storm was brewing silently in Kuala Lumpur’s political core.
The US President Trump, who has never been listed according to common sense, sent the host a list of meetings that could be "heavenly".
The list is more of a diplomatic note than an ultimatum, and Trump’s team has made it clear that the president’s presence at the summit is conditional on his ability to hold a ceremony to sign a historic peace agreement on his own.
The main protagonist of the agreement is Thailand and Cambodia, which aims to pinpoint the two countries’ decade-long Bervey Khashoggi sovereignty dispute, which was a regional peaceful event, but the additional conditions of the United States have made the atmosphere weird.
They demanded that all Chinese officials must be excluded from the participation of this highly anticipated ceremony. Behind this condition, there is a restless heart.
According to sources, Trump's personal motive for this move is to gain a sufficient weight of peace achievements for himself before the announcement of the Bell Peace Prize today.
His team has been intensely lobbying the Norwegian Nobel Committee and European politicians recently, and Trump himself even personally called Norwegian officials, claiming that not winning the prize would be a “insult to the United States.”
However, personal vanity is only an appearance, and the deeper abacus has already been played at the economic and strategic levels. The real target of the United States is the astonishing reserves of rare earth minerals in Mondulkiri Province, Cambodia.
A September report by the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that there are 1.2 million tons of strategic resources, of which more than 60 percent are rare earths such as uranium, uranium, etc., which is the key raw material for the U.S. new energy industry to feed.
The Trump administration's intention is clear: in the name of the peace agreement, it will seize resources and break China's control of more than 90% of the region's rare earth market in one fell swoop.
This "quotation" is far more than that. It also bundles a series of strict requirements for Malaysia's sovereignty: during the summit, U.S. military ships must be allowed to dock at Penang Port, and U.S. companies must be allowed to bid for the natural gas pipeline project in Sabah.
In the joint statement of the summit, harsh words of "opposing economic coercion" against China should be added.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar is caught in a dilemma. He was full of expectation of Trump's arrival, hoping to take the opportunity to negotiate on the damage caused by US tariffs to his economy.
Continuing trade frictions have shrunk Malaysia’s trade volume, forced economic growth to slow down, and increased domestic unemployment risk and fiscal pressure.
However, Trump's conditions are tantamount to setting Malaysia on political fire. The Trump administration's clear pro-Israel stance is extremely unpopular in Malaysia, where Muslim-majority Malaysia is.
Openly collaborating with such a controversial figure to play a "great show" that excludes China, its political risks are obvious.
What’s more, China’s role in mediating the conflict in Cambodia is seen in the eyes of all. China has been deeply involved in the mediation before, and Cambodia’s Prime Minister, Mr. Hong-Mane, has even publicly expressed his gratitude.
At the ceasefire rules meeting on August 7th, China was an official observer alongside the United States and Malaysia. Now, the United States wants to kick this important mediator out.
It was that the air in Kuala Lumpur was instantly condensed, however, less than 24 hours after Trump’s condition was exposed, a quick and firm response, coming from the other direction, radically changed the course of the agency.
The Chinese side announced that it will hold a joint military exercise with Malaysia, code-named "Peace Friendship 2025".This is the sixth of the series of exercises, but this time has been chosen, but is full of obvious intentions.
The exercise is scheduled to take place from October 15 to 23, just before the opening of the ASEAN Summit.
The location is selected in the waters near the port of Guantanamo in Punjab, Malaysia, where the two sides will invest more than 1,000 troops, including more than 700 Chinese soldiers from the Southern battlefield, such as the land and sea air force and the port troops.
The official themes of the exercises sound shocking: humanitarian relief, disaster mitigation and unconventional maritime security.
But everyone understands that, in the context of the US’s exclusive demands, the exercise itself is a strong political statement, it shows the high degree of strategic mutual trust between China and the United States, in contrast to the U.S. hegemony.
Addition and subtraction on economic ledger
Malaysia’s decision is not a simple side stance, but a profound balance of two distinct development models.
The Trump administration has thrown out the draft of the ASEAN-US Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA), which seems attractive, but in fact it hides a mystery.
This core clause is full of exclusiveness: compulsory exclusion of Huawei’s 5G equipment, establishment of a coalition aimed at supplying U.S. rare earth, demanding that 30% of its exports be prioritized to the U.S., and establishment of an infrastructure fund audited by the U.S.
Accepting this agreement is tantamount to drinking poison to quench thirst for Malaysia. It not only means giving up technological sovereignty, but also may directly lead to the instantaneous abortion of a $12 billion "digital free trade zone" project led by Chinese capital.
This is a typical “short-term blood transfusion” pattern that seems to give the market, but is accompanied by high political costs and long-term development barriers.
China’s proposal is an upgraded version of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP).
The plan is more open and pragmatic: it proposes expanding the range of zero-tariff goods for cross-border e-commerce, establishing a US$5 billion ASEAN Green Transformation Fund, and promising to share deep-sea exploration technology.
At present, most of the US$12 billion investment in Malaysia is concentrated in the financial services industry that is highly liquid and easy to withdraw.
China's investment of up to 48 billion US dollars is deeply rooted in the real economy such as manufacturing and infrastructure, and is deeply tied to Malaysia's economic structure.
The economic dependence on China accounts for 31% of GDP and only 7% for the United States, this figure itself explains everything.China's "deep cultivation" model provides Malaysia with a more stable, longer-term "bloodmaking" function.
This is the mutual benefit and win-win of "port-to-route" and "market-to-efficiency", and in the face of such real interests, any blameless political slogans seem blank and powerless.
New security code.
If the economic record makes the choices of Malaysia clear, then cooperation in the field of security adds a heavier code to the shadow, in the past, Malaysia is heavily reliant on the security of the United States, but now, a new model of cooperation is quietly forming.
It is undeniable that Malaysia still needs the United States to provide maintenance of F/A-18 fighter jets, paying US$230 million a year for this, and relies on the United States 'Global Hawk drones for intelligence. This is the "stock" of security cooperation and an established fact.
But the eyes of Malaysia are more focused on the future.
In the next five years, we have seen a marked trend shift in weapons procurement plans of up to $4.5 billion, with the U.S. F/A-18E/F fighter aircraft scheme being degraded, accompanied by tough political conditions, while the Chinese LNG submarine scheme, which promised to transfer technology, was given higher scores.
China is not only willing to sell equipment, but also promises to train 200 submarine operators for Malaysia. This is teaching people to fish and also teaching people to fish.
This shift from "equipment dependence" to "capability co-construction" has greatly increased Malaysia's strategic autonomy.
The upcoming "Peace and Friendship-2025" joint exercise is a concentrated expression of this new type of cooperative relationship. It has long gone beyond mere political symbolism, but has entered a stage of deep integration of technology and strategy.
One detail in the exercise is enough to explain the problem: the two sides will use China's Beidou-3 navigation system for the first time, with a positioning accuracy of 0.1 meters, far exceeding the existing GPS system of the Malaysian army.
This is not just the use of a new set of equipment, it means the acceptance and trust of Chinese technology in the core command chain.
The level of trust is still deepening. China will provide Malaysia with 12 sets of ground stations for "Pterosaur-2" drones to monitor the crucial Strait of Malacca.
In exchange, Malaysia opened the data interfaces of all 24 radar stations of the Integrated Shore-Based Surveillance System (IBSS) to the China Navy in an unprecedented manner.
This is equivalent to handing over part of one's "eyes" to partners, marking that the mutual trust between the two parties has reached the level of tactical data link sharing. This deep interembedding of "technology for data" cannot be bought by any money.
conclusion
When Trump’s special aircraft was about to land in Kuala Lumpur, what he faced was no longer a country he imagined would shake and let go.
What he is facing is a community of interests whose core interests have been deeply integrated with regional partners after precise calculations.
Whether it is the Thai-Cambodia peace agreement or the Nobel Prize he is longing for, the core is short-term behavior that serves personal political capital. The core of the cooperation model between China and Malaysia, whether it is "port for route" or "intelligence for customs clearance convenience", is to focus on mutual benefit and long-term interest binding in the future.
Malaysia has not shaken sharply because of a sudden “offering list.”It has long since steadily calibrated its balance point in one specific cooperation project, in each actuarial interest book.