On the evening of October 8, Eastern Time, US President Trump posted on social media to announce that Israel and Hamas had reached the first phase agreement. Many domestic and foreign media are optimistic that the Gaza conflict is expected to end, but this author does not see it that way.
The Israeli public broadcaster Kan has released copies of the agreement, the main contents of which include:
The Israel Defense Forces will withdraw to the agreed route, which will be completed within 24 hours after Trump's announcement and the Israeli government's approval. Israel said that as long as Hamas fully implements the agreement, the IDF will not return to the areas it has withdrawn.
Within 72 hours after the withdrawal of Israeli troops, Hamas needs to release all Israeli personnel detained in Gaza, including the living and the dead. According to data released by the Israeli government, 48 hostages are currently held in Gaza, of which 20 are still alive.
As Hamas releases all detainees, Israel will simultaneously release the corresponding number of Palestinian prisoners on the list.The exchange will be carried out in accordance with the mechanism agreed by the mediator with the International Committee of the Red Cross, without any public ceremony or receiving media reports.
A working group composed of representatives of the United States, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and other countries agreed by both parties is responsible for following up and coordinating the implementation of the agreement between the two parties.
The "agreed line of defense" mentioned in the agreement refers to a vague map Trump shared on October 4 that marked Israel's initial withdrawal areas in yellow. Currently, Israel controls more than 80% of Gaza's 365-square-kilometer area. According to the map released by Trump, the area within the yellow line is about 155 square kilometers, The remaining approximately 210 square kilometers (58% of Gaza) remain under Israeli control. In addition, Israeli forces will remain in multiple previously densely populated Palestinian communities and continue to control all crossings into and out of Gaza, including the Rafah crossing with Egypt.
Overall, Hamas made more concessions in the first phase of the agreement. This situation is determined by the negotiating status of both parties. Hamas is currently in a difficult situation: Israel's large-scale attack on Gaza City is extremely lethal. If the war continues, Hamas troops may be completely annihilated; At the same time, the pressure of the humanitarian crisis not only affects Israel, but also Hamas, which nominally manages Gaza. In addition, the coordinators, the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, most likely also exerted pressure, further exacerbating Hamas's plight. Therefore, in order to retain the remaining military power and ensure the survival of the people, Hamas has to make greater concessions.
Israel has also made a small amount of concessions, mainly due to international pressure. With the increasing pressure from the international community, especially Western countries, the attitude of the United States has been affected, directly pushing Israel to make concessions this time. The EU is Israel's largest trading partner. If trade sanctions are imposed on Israel, Israel's economy will be affected to some extent; Once port sanctions are launched, the channel for the United States to ship arms to Israel may be blocked. The excessive favoritism of the United States towards Israel has caused widespread dissatisfaction, and it is also facing tremendous pressure. Without the support of the United States, it is difficult for Israel to continue the war.
Judging from the content of the first phase of the agreement, it can only be said that limited progress has been made so far: the hostage crisis has come to an end, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza will be alleviated, and Netanyahu has something to boast about at home. However, it is too early to conclude that "the war is over". There is still a big gap between the two sides from a real ceasefire. At present, there is little problem for the two sides to implement the first-phase agreement, but the core contradiction has not yet been resolved-Hamas and Israel have serious differences on several key issues.
In addition to rescuing hostages, Israel has two core goals: disarming Hamas and establishing a Gaza regime that completely excludes Hamas and is not a threat to Israel. But in order to survive, it is difficult for Hamas to agree to the two demands to drop arms and withdraw from the future Gaza power agency. According to the 20 points plan announced by Trump and Netanyahu, the final phase of the agreement, the Israeli military will withdraw to the designated “safe buffer zone” and still exercise military control over a small part of Gaza, while a “international administrative agency” is responsible for overseeing Gaza’s governance and transition work.
The signing of the first phase of the agreement is only the first step, and there are still many questions to be addressed.How the follow-up agreement will be negotiated and implemented, the specific time and scope of the Israeli withdrawal, the ultimate fate of Hamas, the clear borders of Palestinian territories, the specific functions of the international administration, and the future fate of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank are uncertain.