7 October 2025 in Moscow.
An earlier conventional meeting to discuss Afghanistan has become a “temporary” geopolitical summit.
What attracted the most attention this time was not the meeting itself, but a spectacle-China, India and Pakistan were rarely on the same front.
To know, the usual three countries to come together is often fireworks, but now they can shout side by side, for only one reason: Trump is back.
He suddenly announced that he wanted to “recall” the Afghan air base, and the result was not to scare anyone, and turned back a blow, accidentally hitting a rare “Asian consensus.”
That’s Asia, don’t let foreigners get involved.
Why did you think about the base?
Speaking of Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan, it is an old acquaintance of the United States.
It is close to the Afghan capital, about fifty kilometers north of it, not far away, not near, but it is absolutely not light.
Unfortunately, the empires all love fighting in Afghanistan.
The earliest Bagram was actually built by the United States itself.
In the 1950s, the U.S. made money to help build the base in Afghanistan.
During the Cold War, whoever controlled Afghanistan could strike the throat of Central and South Asia.
In 2001, the United States launched the war in Afghanistan under the banner of "anti-terrorism", and Bagram instantly became the center of the US military.
In the past twenty years, it has not only been a hub for fighter planes to take off and land, but also a prison.
The captured Afghans, Pakistan, and even civilians suspected of being terrorists have all suffered inhumane torture here.
Prisoner abuse, suicide, and nervous breakdown, this prison has become an eternal nightmare in Afghans' hearts.
In August 2021, the U.S. military and NATO troops evacuated in a hurry. When they left, they did not even turn off the electricity. Even the Taliban were shocked.
At that moment, Bagram became the tombstone of the American “Imperial Illusion.”
Four years later, Trump came back.
In September 2025, he suddenly announced that he wanted to “take back” Bagram.
The question is, what is America doing at this time?
He also stated that it is close to our nuclear facilities.
It sounds scary, but it's actually more like finding an excuse. In the final analysis, the United States is not willing to be completely kicked out of Central Asia.
CNN said Trump had already asked security advisors in March to study a plan to “restore control of Bagram.”
On September 18, during a visit to the UK, he said directly that he was trying to get it back.
It’s like going to take back the lost farm.
But he forgot, Afghanistan is not a farm. It was the graveyard of countless empires.
Asia ignited by Trump
Trump’s voice could light up this geophysical barrel of fire in South Asia.
On September 20, 2025, he again threatened on social media platforms that bad things would happen if Afghanistan did not return the base.
The voice just fell, and the pot immediately exploded on the side of Kabul.
Afghanistan will not surrender even a centimetre of land.
He even went straight back, saying that America should learn “realism and reason.”
In just a few days, Afghanistan also issued a special announcement to remind the United States to implement the 2020 Doha Agreement and stop interfering in other people's internal affairs.
To know, the impression of the Afghan people on the U.S. military is colder than the Hindu Kush mountain in the winter.
Twenty years of war cost them millions of lives and a piece of scorched earth, and now hearing the words "I want to come back" is like spreading salt to the wound.
But Trump just felt that this would boost the prestige of the United States.
He even hinted that there was a “anti-terrorist need” there.
But experts do not see that, looking through the United States is actually playing rare ground cards.
Afghanistan is buried underground with millions of tons of rare-earth resources, which is a “strategic mineral treasure” for the now-stricken United States.
Once they can plant the flag, they can rise again in the new energy supply chain.
The problem is – Afghanistan is not an island.
It is surrounded by countries such as China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Iraq.
Any wind blowing will touch the whole continent’s nerves.
If the United States forcibly intervenes, not only will Afghanistan refuse to agree, but surrounding countries will also be nervous.
So, at the Moscow meeting on October 7, things finally had a "collective reaction."
The birth of "Asian Consensus"
The seventh consultation conference on Afghanistan, known as the “Moscow Model,” was originally a routine.
Participants are China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, the five countries of Central Asia, and Belarus.
As a result, Trump's "theory of withdrawing the base" became the topic of discussion throughout the audience.
At the opening of the meeting, the Russian Foreign Minister said it would never allow any other country to engage in military deployments in Afghanistan and its neighbors.
He also named and called on Western countries to "return occupied Afghan national assets" and assume the responsibility of post-war reconstruction.
Subsequently, both China and India and Iran have repeatedly stated that they will not accept the return of the United States to Afghanistan under any pretext.
At this point, India’s attitude is striking.
As a "US-India strategic partner", India did not follow the United States this time, but clearly stood on the side of the regional countries.
Why? Because India is also afraid.
If the U.S. really re-establishes its bases in Afghanistan, the first threat is the South Asian security pattern — the back yard of India.
The joint statement of this meeting is also very hard: it is unacceptable for any country to try to deploy military infrastructure in Afghanistan and its neighboring countries.
This is equivalent to lighting a red light on Trump.
Even better, the statement added that those countries that bear the primary responsibility for the situation in Afghanistan should shoulder the obligations of recovery and reconstruction.
The implication is-America, don't try to repay the debt you owe.
The Afghan foreign ministers are also officially present this time, meaning the Taliban regime is participating in such a meeting for the first time as a full member.
The Russian Foreign Minister also met with him individually, reiterating that Russia does not intend and will not establish any military bases in Afghanistan.
This is the most direct signal to the outside world: what we want is stability, not confrontation.
And the most unexpected outcome of this conference was that the attitude of Asia was unprecedented.
In fact, as early as September 25th, during the 80th United Nations General Assembly in new york, a low-key but extremely heavy meeting was quietly held.
The four foreign ministers of China, Russia, Pakistan and Iraq sat around and talked specifically about Afghanistan.
Don’t see this as an “informal” meeting, but the content is not “informal” at all.
The four sides directly issued a joint statement, which clearly addressed the situation in Afghanistan, counter-terrorism cooperation, economic aid, and even U.S. military ambitions.
In other words, it is warning the United States not to use the idea of an Afghan ghost.
It can be said that Trump’s blow not only didn’t open the door to Afghanistan, but instead struck a new situation: a regional consensus centered on Asia.
Looking back, his wave operation is simply a “geographical oron.”
He wanted to be tough, but instead became a "promoter of Asian unity."
On the geopolitical chessboard, this is called "strategic reaction".
The world is changing and Asia is changing too.
The old saying appeared in particular in this event – the power that wants to dominate Asia will eventually be re-educated by the reality of Asia.
References:
After Trump threatened to re-occupy the Afghan air base, China-Russia issued a joint statement, Observer Network, 2025-09-26
The United States targets Bagram Air Force Base, what is its intention? Upstream News, 2025-09-22
After Afghanistan explicitly refused, Trump became angry from embarrassment, but this had nothing to do with China, Niu Tanqin, 2025-09-22
Afghanistan stresses that it will not give up even an inch of territory, @CCTV International, 2025-09-22
A consultation meeting on Afghanistan was held, "China, India and Pakistan unexpectedly stood on the same side", Observer.com, October 8, 2025