Putin's words came from the BRICS summit in October 2024, when he chaired a meeting in Kazan and commented in passing on the imposition of tariffs by the United States on China. He said that the United States wants to use such trade barriers to slow down China's economy, but it cannot be done at all. It is as absurd as trying to stop the sun from rising on time every day.

This is not random, but based on the contrast of the economic strength of the two countries and the judgment of the global trend. Putin, as the Russian president, often points out the weaknesses of American hegemony in international occasions, this time targeted by the tariff war resumed after Trump took office.

After Trump took office in January 2025, he soon imposed high tariffs on goods imported from China, up to 245%, but this is mainly targeted at certain medical supplies, other such as lithium batteries, electric vehicles, etc. Putin's prediction sounds quite accurate, because by October 2025, China's economic growth is still around 5% and has not been clearly pulled back.

The United States began to increase tariffs on Chinese goods from 2018, when Trump for the first time as president, launched a trade war, claiming to balance the trade deficit.

By 2024, China's manufacturing output value will account for nearly 30% of the world's output value, while that of the United States will only account for about 16%. China is far ahead in the fields of electric vehicles and solar panels, accounting for more than half of the world's output. The United States wants to protect local industries through tariffs, but the supply chain is too dependent on China, such as chips. Many American companies cannot do without factories in Taiwan and mainland China.

Putin saw it clearly. He said that the United States was 15 years behind China. He was not bragging, but supported by data. Calculated by purchasing power parity, China's GDP surpassed that of the United States as early as 2014. Nominally, China's GDP will be 18.9 trillion dollars in 2024, and the United States' GDP will be 28.8 trillion dollars. However, the growth rate is much faster in China, and the United States' GDP will only be 2-3%.

Why is Putin so confident? because economic growth can not be reversed by a single paper tariff.China relies on investment pull, consumption upgrade and the integrity of the industrial chain, and more on the U.S. side is the financial bubble and debt accumulation.

U.S. government debt now exceeds 36 trillion, accounts for more than 130% of GDP, per capita debt of 450,000 yen, government shutdown risk is growing.China's debt structure is different, the main corporate debt and local debt, total of 280% of GDP but can be controlled.

In his speech at the summit, Putin emphasized that economic development is determined by comprehensive factors and historical laws are there. Britain could not stop the rise of the United States in the 19th century, and now the United States cannot stop China. Russia itself has also been sanctioned by the United States, but through cooperation with China, its trade volume has been rising steadily, exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2023, and the proportion of settlement in RMB has also increased.

The tariff war is specific to 2025, and the Trump administration is acting quickly. In February, the general tariff was added to 10%, in April it was expanded to specific categories, electric vehicles were added to 100%, batteries were added to 173% and even fish and toys were all in the market. The New York Times that these tariffs were gradually increased, intended to force China to make concessions, but what is the actual effect?

China's share of exports to the United States fell a little, but turned to ASEAN, Africa and Europe, and trade volumes hit new highs. In 2023, China's exports to ASEAN will be RMB 6.4 trillion, to the EU will be RMB 5.7 trillion, and to Africa will be RMB 2.8 trillion. These data come from the Official Bureau of Statistics and are not made up. After the expansion of BRICS, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and other countries were added, forming an economic circle that circumvented the United States.

After the U.S. freezes Russian assets, global de-dollarization accelerates, with RMB cross-border payments accounting for 3.5 percent in 2023, and CIPS systems processing 175.3 trillion in 2024, accessing 185 countries.

The chip ban begins in 2019, targeting Huawei why, but China's mature process self-sufficiency rate in 2023 exceeds 70%, and the 28nm production line is completely decentralized.

Huawei Mate60 mobile phone will be released in 2023 and will come with a 5G chip to directly face the US blockade. Putin said it was like the sun rising and couldn't be stopped because China has an engineer dividend, training 6 million people every year, compared with the United States only 700,000. Labor costs in China are 1/6 of those in the United States, and manufacturing returns to the United States? Difficult, infrastructure cannot keep up.

China¡¯s high-speed railway has a total mileage of more than 40,000 kilometers and a magnetic suspension of 600 kilometers per hour in testing, and the U.S. high-speed railway project has been delayed for a decade. R&D investments in China accounted for GDP 2.4% in 2023, growth rate of 7%, U.S. 3.5% but low efficiency and high cost. AI models such as DeepSeek, China¡¯s development cost 1/30 of the U.S.

Putin's prediction also involves institutional differences. China's five-year plan can pool resources to do big things, building Beidou satellites, ultra-high voltage power grids, and desert management projects. There is serious party strife in the United States, and the infrastructure bill has been debated in Congress for several years. Land ownership has helped a lot in China, allowing rapid land acquisition, and privatization in the United States has caused projects to become stuck.

Looking at the historical cycle, the rise and fall of powerful countries are regular. Both Rome and Britain have declined. The United States now has great internal friction, with military expenditure accounting for 4% of GDP and China's 1.7%, but the efficiency is high. After the 2024 summit, Putin will continue to promote Sino-Russian cooperation and visit China in May 2025 to sign an energy agreement. Russian oil is sold to China and settled in RMB to avoid US dollar risks.

The tariff war has been fought for more than six months, China's GDP growth is expected to be 5.5%, the United States is 3%. China's new energy vehicle sales are the world's leading, accounting for 60%, US subsidies chase but the market share is small.

The debt crisis is brewing in the United States, and Congress is fighting over the debt ceiling. China has adopted the Belt and Road Initiative, with projects covering more than 100 countries. Ports and railways have been built, and trade has been smooth. Under the BRICS mechanism, non-Western countries grouped together, the share of the US dollar fell, and the euro and yen were also affected. Putin's words are becoming more and more like reality. The United States wants to contain them, but its own economic problems are huge, with high inflation and hollowing out manufacturing.

Because economic development is a natural process, depending on the population, resources, science and technology accumulation, not one or two policies can be overturned.China's population quality is high, education investment is large, the U.S. immigration policy is chaotic, and the labor force is aging.

Putin has seen that the cost of U.S. hegemony is too high, it intervenes everywhere, spends money like water, and has a weak internal momentum.

In the next 15 years, if there is no war or black swan, China's nominal GDP over the United States is not a dream. According to the IMF forecast, in 2030, China will account for the global GDP of 25%, the United States of 20%.