The U.S. rare earth stocks are in urgent need, and Pakistan "affectionately" submitted an agreement a few days ago.
As soon as the United States and Pakistan dreamed their respective "dreams," an announcement from China quickly brought them back to reality.
It is well known that after Trump regained power, he launched a trade war with China and “crazy” imposed tariffs on Chinese exports.
China quickly took countermeasures: controlling rare earth exports.
Soon after, the United States, which relied heavily on importing China's rare earths, could not withstand it, and the rare earth industrial chain was seriously affected.
For this reason, Trump has thought about many ways. One of the most effective ones is to find cooperation with other countries and seek rare earth suppliers other than China.
In this case, some countries that want to make big money in the United States, naturally, start off.
Among them, the most typical one is Pakistan.
Pakistan wants to attract U.S. funds through rare earth materials, ease the pressure on foreign debt, and broaden foreign exchange sources.
The United States wants to get rid of China’s dependence on rare earth through Pakistan.
Therefore, the United States and Pakistan, which "each had a bad intention", hit it off immediately.
After consultation, a few days ago, the United States and Pakistan started their first strategic cooperation on rare earth materials.
At the beginning of October, a cargo ship set sail at Karachi Port, Pakistan, and its destination was new york Port, USA.
The freighter is carrying 2,000 tonnes of minerals, 15% of which is rare earth concentrate, containing key light rare earths such as neodymium and praseodymium, and the rest is copper and antimony.
There is also a rare earth recycling agreement.The Border Works Organization, run by the Pakistani military, signed with US Strategic Metals.
The signing of the rare-earth cooperation agreement did not satisfy the "appetite" of the two sides.
In addition to ore, the two sides are also planning to build a new port to create a new channel for rare earth supply.
According to the Financial Times, a team of Pakistani military advisers had proposed to the United States to work together to build a deep-sea port on the coast of the Arabian Sea in Pasni, dedicated to the export of rare earth.
This port is only 112 kilometers away from Gwadar Port invested and built by China, almost doing things in front of you.
Pakistan's abacus is really loud: when the port is built, American investment poures in, and its own minerals can directly reach the European and American markets; In addition, let the United States and China fight, and get benefits from both sides, and be happy.
Trump is also secretly pleased with his “wise action.”
Here's the question: Can Pakistan really help the United States get rid of its dependence on China's rare earths?
With regard to this U.S. and Pakistani cooperation, the outside world generally believes that China will choose to stay silent and watch the change.
However, China’s response was faster and more direct than expected.
At 9 a.m. on October 9, the Ministry of Commerce of China issued No. 62 announcement, implementing export controls on rare earth-related technologies, and implemented immediately from the date of release.
The number of words is small, but the amount is very heavy.
It has shifted from a simple "rare earth embargo" to a comprehensive blockade of the rare earth technology chain.
From mining to separation, from metallurgy to magnetic manufacturing, everything is controlled.
China's technical control announcement completely blocks the possibility of the United States and Pakistan extending from ports to processing chains.
The port is easy to build, and it is harder to supplement rare-earth technology than landing.
Rare earths are not potatoes, digging them out is just the beginning.
Without purifying, separating, and making a high-performance magnetic material, this process is "gold strip with mud", in the end, it can only be stacked in the warehouse "eat ash".
Dozens of countries around the world have rare earth minerals, but only China can truly turn rare earths from "ore" into "high-performance magnets."。
China not only controls about 70% of the world's high purity rare earth refining capacity, but also controls more than 85% of the rare earth magnets manufacturing capacity.
More importantly, more than 70% of relevant patents are in the hands of China companies and institutions.
For example, the production of neodymium iron boron magnets requires extremely high purity neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide, as well as high-end processes such as vacuum smelting and directional sintering.
These technologies can't be done just by buying a device.
While the U.S. has mines, such as the Muntington Pass mine, which has been calling for years to resume the rare earth industry, even the test line has not been opened.
The United States has previously tried to build a rare earth separation plant in Texas and cooperated with Australia mining companies. However, the technology chain is incomplete, the industrial cluster is immature, and the project advancement has been repeatedly postponed.
Even if construction starts in 2023, it will not necessarily be able to build enough capacity before 2027.
Even if they are given raw materials, without technology, they can't really get rid of dependence.
The U.S. can only do crude processing, can not make military-grade products, let alone missiles, electric motors, F-35 fighter parts.
China's control of rare earth technology this time is more deadly than previous controls on rare earth minerals.
More seriously, this announcement, in addition to the ban on technology exports, “Technical services” are also included in the scope of control.。
No Chinese citizen, legal person, or non-legal organization may provide “substantial assistance” to rare-earth mining, metallurgy, and recycling activities abroad without permission.
What does that mean?
It’s not that you can’t sell machines so easily, it’s. Equipment debugging, remote guidance, technical consultancy, maintenance and maintenance of these "soft outputs" are also banned.
This is equivalent to fundamentally cutting off the connection between China technicians and overseas rare earth projects. Whether you are in the United States, Pakistan, or a third country, you cannot circumvent permission to cooperate.
In the past, the United States or other countries often relied on Chinese engineers and consulting teams to provide program support for rare earth projects.Now this road is completely closed.
China's counterattack on rare earth technology control is precise and direct, and is obviously not a temporary intention.
In fact, from the end of 2024, China will begin to implement export licensing management for gallium, germanium, graphite and other metals.
At the beginning of 2025, medium and heavy rare earths will also be included in the control.
Then this time, Announcement No. 62 implements comprehensive supervision of technology.
The scope of control covers the entire rare earth industry chain: mining, smelting, metal conversion, magnetic material manufacturing, recycling, and even equipment debugging and maintenance.
From “Raw Materials Control” to “Technical Blockade” formed the whole chain of rare earth protection.
With the immediate implementation of Announcement No. 62 of the Ministry of Commerce of China, The U.S. attempts to bypass China, borrowing other countries to rebuild the rare-earth supply chain, the "good dream" is thoroughly blurred.
Pakistan wants to borrow rare land to attract U.S. capital to ease the pressure of foreign debt; the construction of a new port for the United States and China to fight, and the goodwill of both sides to take advantage is completely gone.
Of course, in this rare game, they are not destined to win.
They chose the wrong direction from the beginning.
The key to the rare earth game has never been the rare earth mineral itself, but the complete processing technology behind it.
And these core technologies have long been firmly in the hands of China.
Announcement No. 62 of the Ministry of Commerce of China is to lock in the core technology of rare earth and does not close the door to cooperation.
Cooperation can continue, but the rules must be set by those with skills.