On October 10th, North Korea held the 80th anniversary celebration of the founding of the Party in Pyongyang. The scene of the day was particularly lively. Not only did the top leaders of North Korea attend the whole process, but China and Russia also sent high-level delegations to the scene.
Three high-ranking stands side by side, the release of signals is quite large. Especially for Trump, who is far away in the United States, this scene is not a taste in his heart. His original calculation was to pull one to two, but now eyes open to watch the three countries embrace, sing together.
Even worse, the U.S. has just experienced a government shutdown, and the fiscal impasse has not been completely resolved.Under the double blast of domestic and foreign pressure, Trump suddenly accelerated the pace, and began a series of operations that can't touch the mind, and the pace is so fast that even the people around him can't follow.
Is Trump trying to stabilize the situation, or is he putting all his eggs in one basket?
NATO blows up the pot, Spain becomes the "outlet"
Recently, Trump’s attitude to NATO is so urgent and tough that he suddenly spoke, saying that Spain is not willing to increase military spending, so just don’t stay in NATO.
As a result, European countries almost at the same time scratched their eyebrows. Spain, of course, is not willing to be named, and other countries are also starting to worry about whether they are the next. The US president's operation is very much like kicking people in the WeChat group, kicking not a small role, but a member of the main force.
Behind this storm, Trump's basic judgment on NATO has actually changed. He no longer regards NATO as a multilateral security platform, but more like a card in his hand-whoever obeys will be guaranteed; whoever procrastinates will be "cleaned up."
His goal is more unprecedented, requiring member states to bring the armed forces to five percent of GDP, which is almost double or more.
Trump's logic is very simple. It is unfair that the United States pays and works, while others carry bags and wait for protection. He hoped to use this tough tactic to force allies to submit, but the result was a series of backlash.
European countries began to be more vigilant about the diplomatic direction of the United States, fearing that NATO would be regarded as a private arsenal by Trump. Policy circles in Brussels are already discussing whether to establish a more independent European defense mechanism to prevent the United States from "changing its face at any time".
In fact, the advisory team around Trump has long advised him not to do this, which will only hurt the credibility of the United States. But he didn't listen.
His attitude is very clear, and he is unwilling to cover the bottom of those "friends who don't pay". In his eyes, only by becoming more like a team willing to fight and spend money can NATO stand up in the face of China, Russia and the DPRK.
But his approach made Europeans doubt whether they should re-planning their own safety routes.
Hypersonic weapons have become a "face project"
In addition to diplomatic efforts, Trump has also begun to accelerate militarily. One of the most watched trends is that he asked the military to complete the deployment of hypersonic weapons before the end of the year.
This sounds shocking, but the problem is that the weapon is not fully tested at the moment, and many of the technical links are not mature.
The military had concerns at first. After all, such weapons involve high-speed flight and precision strikes. If anything goes wrong in any link, the consequences are unpredictable. But Trump's attitude is very clear-whether mature or not, let's put it on the shelves first. He even personally ordered that relevant projects must be deployed on time and without delay.
The reason behind this is actually not complicated.
China and Russia frequently act in the field of hypersonic weapons, especially recently North Korea showed a new type of missile system, has made the United States feel a lot of pressure. Trump does not want to fall behind in this field, he wants an immediate deterrent.
The opinions of the experts are clear that this weapon has not yet reached the stage of "real war available", and the deployment can not only not fight the war, but may cause problems.
But Trump is obviously less concerned about technological risks.He is concerned about the power gestures displayed to the outside.Even if only symbolically deploying a few, he can also occupy high points in public opinion.
This is the typical example of "politics takes precedence over majors." In fact, many people within the Pentagon have privately expressed dissatisfaction, believing that the president has intervened too much and the professional judgment of the technical team has been continuously compressed.
This hasty approach is inevitable to worry.If one day you really need to use these weapons, their actual effects can not be sustained, no one dares to buy a ticket.
Moreover, such a project itself involves a large amount of money invested, and once the earlier judgment is wrong, the cost of later corrections will be very high. For the military, this is a political-driven adventure, but for Trump, it is another "forced breakthrough" under pressure at home and abroad.
The Japanese side is not concerned, Trump can't keep the pace.
Trump originally hoped to find some stable allies in the East Asia region, so that he could add a point to the strategic layout. The reality gave him a kidding. Speaking of Japan, Trump earlier expressed his support for the high market, believing that she was a "strong man" to cooperate with. But things didn't go as he thought.
Although the high market is not small, the scandal is entangled, and the partnership with the co-government is not stable.The eye watching her way to office is becoming more and more twisted, and Trump's goodwill calculus is also unable to follow.
He originally wanted to make a breakthrough on regional security issues by agreeing with a tough Japanese prime minister, but the political reality in Japan is far more complex than he thought, with party balances, fluctuations in public opinion and media surveillance causing uncertainty in the city’s political career.
Trump thinks simply. He thinks that as long as he supports it, he can influence the result. But Japan is not a dependent country of the United States, and the political rhythm there is not controlled by him.
Looking at South Korea again, there is also trouble here. The new deployment of drone systems by the U.S. military has sparked massive protests in South Korea, where many people fear that these weapons will turn South Korea into a front line of conflict. Li Ziming's government took the opportunity to propose that it hoped to re-examine the military power arrangements between the United States and South Korea and strive to regain wartime command.
This has been a sensitive issue in South Korea for a long time, and now it has been put on the table again while the situation is changing.
For Trump, this is simply an escalation. he had wanted to shape a barrier against the DPRK by suppressing Japanese cooperation, but at the moment it seems that a prime minister is difficult to produce, an ally wants independence, and his "Indo-Pacific strategy" is becoming increasingly difficult to advance.
More importantly, he found that these countries were not as “controllable” as he imagined; they had their own domestic policies, had their own security considerations, and would not easily adjust their direction for the needs of the United States.
This is quite frustrating for Trump. He wants to solve the problem through "strong diplomacy", but he keeps hitting a wall. The attitude of Japan and South Korea shows that the influence of the United States is not monolithic in this region, and the cooperation among allies is not as smooth as in the past. This is obviously a big blow to Trump's plan to build a regional safety net.
The more you want to control the more out of control.
From NATO to Asia, from military spending to weapons, Trump's recent operations have been amazingly fast. But behind these actions, there is actually a kind of anxiety. He is using various methods to prove that the United States is still leading the situation and that he himself can still control the direction.
But the reality is, the more you want to control, the more the situation becomes out of control.
He does not trust experts, does not listen to advice, and even his attitude towards allies is becoming more and more tough. In his view, only showing a tough gesture can discourage opponents and stabilize allies. But the problem is that this "pressure-based" approach is only for short-term effects and does not actually help with long-term strategic layout.
Especially when the opponent has begun to cling, the allies have begun to hesitate, and the country is in chaos, this game is easily transformed into self-consumption.
Trump's approach is, to put it bluntly, a gamble. He bet that Europe would bow, the military would cooperate, and East Asia would cooperate, but every bet was in the air, and none of them had actually landed.
What he wants is quick results, but the most taboo thing in international politics is to act too hastily.
He "strikes one hand," seems to be a tremendous wind, and the truth is that every move is like replenishing the past shortboards, but the more urgent it is, the more messy it is.
And decisions made at this rhythm are often the most prone to problems. At present, the foreign policy of the United States has shown an obvious sense of instability, the confidence of allies has declined, and differences have emerged within the military system. If this situation continues, Trump's "strongman line" is likely to become a high-risk gamble.
The world is watching and waiting. What we are waiting for is not how he will do next, but where this "self-accelerating" policy will take the United States.
Trump wants to win a game, but now it seems that it is more likely that he is pushing the situation in a more uncontrollable direction. For the United States, this is far from just a matter of personal style, but a deep strategic imbalance.