Macron is about to take over as the eighth prime minister in his two presidential term, while France is in a serious political crisis.

On October 8, 2025, in Paris, France, two live TV shows showed on television screens the imminent French Prime Minister Sebastian Leclerc (right), in the background of an image of French President Emmanuel Macron.

According to Xinhua news agency on October 8, French prime minister Le Corney said in an interview with the media on the evening of 8 that the likelihood of President Macron dissolving the National Assembly was decreasing and that he could appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours.

On June 6, Le Corneille, who served only 27 days and less than 24 hours in the cabinet, resigned to Macron, becoming the shortest term of prime minister in the Fifth Republic of France. On behalf of Macron, Le Corneille held a two-day "final negotiation" with the opposition party in order to maintain political stability, but the far-right political party "National League" and the far-left political party "No submission to France" refused the invitation to negotiate in the National Assembly.

Le Corny's resignation once again highlights the paralysis of French politics. After Macron held early parliamentary elections in June 2024, no political party won an absolute majority in parliament, resulting in the two major opposition forces on the left and right being able to easily veto any draft and force the prime minister to step down.

A few hours after Le Corney was forced to resign, Macron in a black coat was photographed walking alone on the Seine River, with guards keeping a distance from him. Reuters commented that the picture is reminiscent of the resignation of former French President de Gaulle in the late 1960s, seeking comfort in the Irish wilderness, ¡°a leader who, as his political era approached the end, chose the Inner Province.¡±

Currently, Macron is reluctant to hold a new parliamentary election to prevent the lead "National League" from taking power, nor is he willing to resign. But analysts point out that he has barely a convincing new prime minister candidate, and goes on to change the prime minister, so that the position has been regarded as a "toxic sacred cup".

The change of France's prime minister again has also caused concerns in the euro zone. "France is too big to fail, and this endless political instability puts the whole euro zone in danger," said an unnamed EU diplomat.

Budget Struggle and Human Resources

Like former prime ministers Barnier and Bayrou, Le Korni also encountered resistance when pushing forward the draft 2026 budget. He said that the opposition's non-cooperation made him currently unable to govern, and "all political parties acted as if they all had a majority in parliament."

French caretaker Prime Minister Le Corny data map

The draft 2026 budget aims to reduce France's huge deficit. Policies that touch multiple interests, including pension reform, taxation, and raising the retirement age, cannot reach consensus in parliament.

In an interview on French TV 2 on the evening of the 8th, lecorny said that "it is possible to find a way out" through negotiations with opposition parties. He said that many political groups, such as the left wing, are willing to reach an agreement on the budget and political stability, but only under certain conditions.

Responding to several opposition calls for the government to suspend pension reforms, Le Corney said he hoped to find a way to ¡°debat¡± about the pension reform, while warning that the ¡°cost¡± of suspending the pension reform would exceed 3 billion euros by 2027.

Le Corney pointed out that pension reform is one of the most obstructive and difficult issues, and if not resolved early, it will surface again before the 2027 presidential election.

Le Corney also announced that the draft budget for 2026 will be submitted on the 13th so that the draft can enter the review process of the National Assembly as soon as possible. He believes that all political forces in France are "willing" to pass the draft before December 31, which also reduces the possibility of Macron dissolving the National Assembly.

However, apart from the deadlock in the draft budget, it is actually the list of members of the new government that dealt a fatal blow to Le Corny's government.

Le Corney claimed to have ¡°cuts¡± from past politics when he took office, but of the 18 ministers appointed by the new government, 13 are from the former Beirut government, with no leftist or far-right representatives.

What makes French politics most unconvincing is that Le Maire, who served as finance minister for seven years during Macron's term, was appointed as defense minister. During the epidemic, Le Maire led the fiscal work, during which time France's fiscal deficit rose sharply.

Letayo, the remaining Minister of the Interior and leader of the center-right Republican Party, took the lead in attacking. He criticized that "the composition of the new government failed to reflect the promised changes", suggesting that the Republican Party might withdraw from the government.

Bardera, chairman of the far-right National League, said: ¡°We have made it clear to the prime minister: either change or face a vote of no confidence.¡±

The left also expressed dissatisfaction, with Socialist spokesman De LaPorte writing: ¡°This short-term government shows only one thing: Macronism has once again plunged France into chaos.¡±

Isolated, impeached

In theory, if Macron chose not to dissolve the National Assembly, he could reappoint a new prime minister from his own camp, but the rapid collapse of Lekorny's government showed the limits of this move. The new prime minister will face the same challenge as Le Corney and his two predecessors: passing the budget without a parliamentary majority.

French President Macron data map

Macron could choose to appoint moderate opposition politicians or more neutral technological bureaucrats, but this could bring significant risks: the left would force Macron to compromise on economic reforms; the appointment of the right could deviate from the left and provoke more vote of mistrust.

Politicians from the left and right factions keep calling for Macron to resign, including Le Pen, leader of the National League, and Bardella, president of the National League, Melenchon, leader of the Unyielding France, and Faure, the first secretary of the center-left Socialist Party.

After Le Corneille suddenly announced his resignation on June 6, the party called for a motion to impeach Macron and was jointly submitted by 104 lawmakers.According to BFMTV News, the motion was rejected by the National Assembly¡¯s Executive Board on the 8th morning as ¡°unacceptable¡±.

According to the Constitution of the Fifth Republic of France, it is "almost impossible" to successfully impeach the president at parliamentary level, and even if the impeachment of the parliament passes the executive board of the National Assembly, it will require a two-thirds majority of votes in both the National Assembly and the Senate, and finally appeals to the Supreme Court.

Le Pen said on the 8th that the National League will vote to overthrow any future prime minister appointed before the new election. "This joke has been played long enough. No one can laugh now," said Le Pen's protege Bardella. "Macron wants to buy time. He tries to keep his camp at all costs."

In addition, several Macron's allies have announced that they will cut off their seats with him, plunging them into political isolation.

Attar, chairman of Macron's Baath Party and former Prime Minister, bluntly said that he had "failed to understand the decision of the head of state."

Philip, the first prime minister in Macron¡¯s first term, called for a new prime minister to be appointed as soon as possible in order to quickly pass the budget, followed by an early presidential election.

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) pointed out that since the political split, Macron has had to face all kinds of political challenges, stabilize France, which is increasingly ungovernable, and there is not much time left for him.

Analysts generally believe that the tax cuts introduced by Macron after taking office in 2017 are the direct cause of France's debt out of control. Last year, he held early parliamentary elections, which created a stalemate in which all parties in the current parliament were evenly matched. "There is no democratic constitutional system that can maintain political stability with only one-third of parliament supporting it." Benjamin Morrell, professor of public law at the University of Panthéon-Assas in Paris, believes.

In an interview with the French Revolution historian Pierre Serna accused Macron of completely denying his responsibility, he noted that this deeply rooted crisis had a huge long-term impact: ¡°The deep disagreement on social issues (created) a revolutionary situation, and the revolution occurred because the elites were unable to cope with the task.¡±

Haddad, a former ministerial representative of European affairs in Macron's government, believes that even if Macron resigns, it is meaningless. "The next president will only face the same problem: political differences will continue to exist."

Compared with the European debt crisis

France's fiscal deficit will account for 5.8% of GDP in 2024, and this figure is expected to be 5.4% this year. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, France's public debt-to-GDP ratio had reached 114%, almost double the 60% ceiling set by the European Union.

In September, the international rating agency also downgraded France¡¯s sovereign credit rating due to political unrest and budget delays.It predicts that the size of France¡¯s debt will continue to rise and may rise to 121 percent of GDP by 2027, which will weaken France¡¯s ability to resist economic shocks.

The outside world is worried that France, as the second largest economy in the EU, may not be able to promote and help the EU carry out the necessary reforms in order to remain competitive in geopolitical competition.

Some EU diplomats have revealed that it would be easier for EU officials to meet with the same French finance minister to discuss the budget, but there have been repeated cabinet changes in France.

Some European officials have compared the economic situation of France with that of Greece and Portugal during the 2010 EU debt crisis.Most economists believe that France is better able to deal with financial problems than Greece and Portugal, and that it does not need rescue in the short term, can still borrow from the financial markets at reasonable interest rates, and will not immediately face the risk of non-payment of debt.

Philippe Lausberg, senior policy analyst at the European Policy Center, further pointed out that the French economy is "still considered quite strong", and if the political situation stabilizes quickly, the impact on other countries in the euro zone can be negligible.

Another unnamed senior EU official said that the market reaction so far was flat, which was "a positive proof of France's reputation". "The market remains convinced that once all the political issues are dealt with, the French government will stabilize and return to normal policymaking, which is what we want to happen, the sooner the better," the official said.

However, according to EU rules, a member state¡¯s budget deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP if France continues to exceed that level, other member states may rethink whether to comply with the rule.