The Author: Chen
Institute for Advanced Study in Regional and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University
The agency said the status was upgraded to a full member. Afghanistan is gradually moving from international isolation to structural regional cooperationIt is also reflected in the fact that the international community is further expanding its recognition of the Afghan Taliban regime.The solution to the Afghan issue is shifting from an intervention model previously dominated by the West to a new paradigm jointly built by regional countries.
This progress is not only the inevitable result of Russia’s development of Afghanistan policy, but also reflects the overall trend of major regional forces collectively escaping Western isolation policies and actively shaping the surrounding security environment. At the heart of this move is a fundamental shift in Afghanistan’s positioning: from a passive “career” to a recognised and hopeful “partner” to promote regional common development.
01 "Moscow Model": From security dialogue to institutionalization of regional consensus
“Moscow Format” was born in 2017. Russia LeadingThe regional dialogue platform, including China, Iran, Pakistan, India and many Central Asian countries, is a multilateral consultation mechanism around the Afghan issue. It aims to promote the international community to reach consensus on Afghanistan's security situation and post-war reconstruction. This model coordinates the positions of countries on issues such as counter-terrorism cooperation, drug control, and lifting sanctions through regular meetings.
Unlike the previously U.S.-led Doha process, the Moscow model emphasizes the direct interests and security connections of neighboring countries, with the logic that the Afghan issue cannot be solved outside of Afghanistan.
The mechanism mainly focuses on three core elements: Anti-terrorism and anti-drugsThe meeting highlighted the strengthening of the threat of cross-border terrorist forces such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP; also known as Islamic State-Khorasan, IS-K).
2 is economic developmentOn the one hand, Russia called for the lifting of sanctions on Afghanistan and the return of its frozen assets, including US$7 billion in international aid funds. On the other hand, infrastructure investment between China and Russia, as well as energy cooperation between Iran, Uzbekistan and other countries, may become the key to Afghanistan's economic difficulties.
Three is advance. International Legal Procedures。 On October 4, 2024, at the sixth meeting of the "Moscow Format" consultation on Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, the Russian President's Special Representative for Afghanistan, stated that the Afghan Taliban has begun to be removed from the Russian list of terrorist organizations, and relevant legal procedures are in progress. As of 2025, the "Moscow Model" has formed a relatively stable multilateral communication framework. Its membership constitutes a mechanism for regional security dialogue that continues to function in Afghanistan-related affairs, with the gradual expansion to include China-Russia-India and Central Asian countries.
Foreign contacts since the Taliban re-government
Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, the Afghan Taliban regime has faced political isolation and financial blockade on the international stage for a long time. During the first Taliban administration from 1996 to 2001, three countries, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan, recognized the Taliban regime and established diplomatic relations with Afghanistan. Since the establishment of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" in August 2021, the Taliban regime is still exploring ways to obtain international recognition.
Now, four years have passed, and there has been no progress in the inclusive process. The interim government's restrictions on women's rights have been escalating. The international community has constantly expressed concern about this, and at the same time, it has increased its contact with the Afghan interim government.
In January this year, India’s Foreign Minister Sujetin and Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Mutaki held a historic first meeting in Dubai. On March 20, Mutaki met with a U.S. delegation in Afghanistan’s capital Kabul to discuss issues such as bilateral relations and the release of prisoners.
On July 3, Russian Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov submitted his credentials to Afghan Interim Government Foreign Minister Mottaki in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, becoming the first country to officially recognize the Afghan Interim Government as the legitimate regime in Afghanistan.Russia's move is a key step in its use of geostrategic, security interests and economic considerations, in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia faces Western isolation, urgent need of diplomatic opening up, recognition of the Taliban regime, is seen as a way to break through diplomatic difficulties and show strategic autonomy, at the same time, the "power vacuum" left in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the U.S. military, also provides an opportunity for Russia to expand its influence in Central and South Asia.
Mutaqi openly stated that Russia has gone ahead of everyone, and Afghan Interim Government Information and Culture Minister Hail Khwa also said in an interview that under the agreement in Doha to restore peace in Afghanistan, the Afghan government has met all the necessary conditions for international recognition, and shouted that more than 190 countries around the world should follow Russia and accept the reality of recognizing the Afghan Interim Government.
Just after Russia officially recognized the Afghan interim government, the German government allowed two Afghan interim government diplomats to perform their duties at the Afghan mission in Germany on July 21st, opening a precedent for EU countries to make diplomatic contacts with the Afghan Taliban. At present, Afghan missions in Norway, the Netherlands, Spain, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and other European countries also maintain contacts with the Afghan interim government. Afghan interim government officials have held informal meetings with European officials in Norway many times. But these European countries claim that these contacts are not recognition of the Afghan interim government.
As of July 2025, 23 foreign diplomatic institutions were controlled by the Provisional Government of Afghanistan, twice as many as in July 2024. According to the official website of the Provisional Government of Afghanistan, by the beginning of August 2025, 29 foreign consulates were actually managed by the government, including neighboring countries, major countries in the world and a number of Western countries.
03 The significance of Afghanistan becoming a full member of the "Moscow Model"
From "topic object" to "topic subject"。In the past, Afghanistan has always been bound in the international agenda with negative labels such as terrorism, drug outbreaks, refugee crises, and is the object of common concern for the international community. Today, Afghanistan joins the Russian-led “Moscow model” in a gesture of equality. It means that Afghanistan has upgraded from an "object of discussion" to a participant and shaper of regional order.This identity transformation from object to subject itself is also an implicit recognition of its political legitimacy, opening a new key window for breaking through the current diplomatic dilemma.
From unilateral contact to multilateral institutionalization。Previously, Afghanistan's interaction with neighbors was mostly bilateral, such as China-Arab economic cooperation or OAS security communication, and after officially incorporating the "Moscow model", Afghanistan received the first institutional diplomatic platform, which can coordinate the core interests of counter-terrorism, anti-drugs and other neighboring powers, but also provide possible institutional interaction for all parties to establish regional crisis management mechanisms, can effectively avoid strategic misjudgment caused by misinformation, obviously more effective than temporary bilateral contacts can prevent regional conflicts.
From international isolation to a new mechanism of "regional co-governance"。Behind this transformation, a new governance paradigm in Afghanistan is taking shape in the "post-US military era". Regional forces such as Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan are building a non-Western co-governance model. Afghanistan's formal accession to some extent symbolizes that the region's order experiment is moving from a conceptual consensus stage to a new stage of institutional construction.
The countries of the region are demonstrating with action that no Western-led governance of Afghanistan will necessarily lead to a power vacuum, a multi-party co-governance with host countries at the core, or will become a new paradigm to solve complex regional problems. Of course, the Taliban regime can truly assume membership responsibility and make substantial progress on counter-terrorism, human rights, women and other issues is still a big test for this new mechanism.
Perspectives and Perspectives
The upcoming conference in October will be the "touchstone" of Afghanistan's new identity. All parties will pay close attention to whether the Taliban regime can turn its political commitments into concrete actions, especially in making visible progress in combating extremist organizations, eradicating the drug industry chain and promoting domestic national reconciliation.
For the region, opportunities and challenges coexist. The opportunity is that a stable and open Afghanistan can become the “Asian crossroads” connecting Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East, and initiatives such as the “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” and the “China-Central Asia-West Asian Economic Corridor” are expected to incorporate it, unleashing huge geo-economic potential.
Afghanistan's joining the "Moscow Model" as a full member is a profound rebalancing of geopolitics in the "post-war era", which means that in this land of Afghanistan, the prelude to a new era in which regional countries share responsibilities and share development dividends is slowly opening.
This change also demonstrates a regional governance approach that promotes stability through cooperation and develops risks. Afghanistan’s future should be decided by the people of Afghanistan, and should be achieved through the joint efforts of the countries of the region. In the new phase of regional governance, Afghanistan’s integration is not only an adjustment of the geopolitical landscape, but also a vivid practice of the concept of a regional community of destiny.
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This article was published exclusively in Tencent News.
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