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Source: All statements in this article have reliable sources of information contained in the article and at the end.
On October 9, local time, two heavy news simultaneously attracted global attention.
The Trump administration, on the other hand, has thrown a proposed order through the Ministry of Transportation to “prohibit Chinese airlines from flying over Russian airspace to the United States.”
A strict 48-hour response deadline is given, otherwise the measures will come into effect in November.
Meanwhile, two countermeasures recently landed by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce are still fermenting.
More than a dozen U.S. defense industry affiliated entities have been included in the "unreliable entity list", and some of the exports of rare-earth refining and processing technologies have been tightened.
On the one hand, there is "time-limited pressure" on civil aviation routes, and on the other hand, there is "precise countermeasures" in key areas.
This seemingly flight-oriented game has long gone beyond the field of aviation, and behind it is a complex conflict between the strategies of the great powers, market rules and people's livelihoods.
The conflict on this route did not break out suddenly.
Looking back at the previous Sino-US flight negotiations, the US tried to tie the "ban on flights in Russian airspace" with "increasing the number of flights."
At the time, this demand directly led to the negotiations in a standstill.
The logic of the U.S. has come to an end: after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the U.S. first banned Russian airlines from flying over U.S. airspace.
Russia immediately adopted reciprocal countermeasures, and American Airlines had to detour the Arctic or Pacific Ocean. The fuel cost of a single flight increased by hundreds of thousands of dollars and the flight time was extended by 2-3 hours.
This commercial consequence caused by the US-Russia game has been distorted by the United States as "the competitive advantage of China's airlines."
The data show that China Airways currently operates more than 80% of China-U.S. routes over Russian airspace.
Taking the Shanghai-new york route as an example, the route through Russian airspace is about 14,000 kilometers, with a flight time of 14.5 hours.
If you circumnavigate the Arctic, you will need to increase the distance of 1500 kilometers, extend the time of 1.5 hours, and the fuel cost of a single flight is about RMB 300,000.
More concern is the European Air Force’s “chain reaction.”
In 2024, several European airlines such as Polish Airlines and Hansa Airways stopped flights on several Central European routes due to high cost of flight circumvention.
But it rarely synchronizes with the call that “China should also ban Russian airspace flights.”
But in fact, the basis for Chinese airlines to use Russian airspace is the Civil Air Transport Agreement signed by China and Russia.
It is fully in line with the provisions of the Convention on International Civil Aviation that "the use of airspace should be based on bilateral agreements and the principle of fairness" and has nothing to do with the difficulties caused by the United States and Europe due to their own sanctions policies.
Logical confrontation of resistance and pressure.
It is not a coincidence that the U.S. is at a time when the two key countermeasures have landed in China.
At the end of September, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement that more than a dozen foreign entities involved in the supply of anti-drone technology and aerospace components were included in the "list of unreliable entities".
Most of these companies have long provided supporting services to the U.S. Department of Defense and its contractors, and some companies have repeatedly refused to supply Chinese companies on the grounds of "national security".
They even participated in the technological blockade of Chinese entities.
The following measures of rare earth control, more precisely pointing to the "pain point" of the American industry.
The U.S. Geological Survey's 2024 report shows that 85% of the refining and processing of rare earth elements needed for high-end manufacturing in the United States depends on Chinese technology.
Although the United States has vigorously promoted the construction of its local rare earth supply chain in recent years, it has built its first rare earth ore processing plant in Arizona.
However, the core separation and purification technology has not yet broken through, and it is impossible to get rid of the dependence on Chinese technology in the short term. This time, China controls "rare earth refining and processing technology" rather than "rare earth raw materials".
It is equivalent to blocking key links in the manufacturing of high-end chips, new energy batteries, and military equipment in the United States from the upstream of the industrial chain.
Faced with these two countermeasures, it is difficult for the U.S. side to find mutual countermeasures in the field of science and technology and resources, and instead to focus on the civil aviation industry.
The reason why the civil aviation industry has become a "target" is, on the one hand, that the Sino-US route involves a large number of passenger travel and cargo transportation, which is directly related to people's livelihood and trade.
On the other hand, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Foreign Air China Division has the authority to approve operations in the United States and has "pressure convenience."
However, this practice of "avoiding the reality and attacking the virtual" obviously violates the basic principles of "safety, efficiency and marketization" of the global civil aviation industry.
The "Real Dilemma" of Hegemonic Logic
If the U.S. no-fly order is finally implemented, passengers and companies from China and the United States will bear the brunt.
The annual passenger traffic of China-US routes is estimated at about 3 million, and the price of a single trip may rise by 30%-50% after the adjustment of the route.
The data showed that in 2024, the average price of the China-US routes in the economy class is about 8,000 yuan, and if the circumvention leads to an increase in costs, the price of the ticket could break to 1.2 million yuan.
For business travelers and international students who frequently travel between China and the United States, this will directly increase the travel burden.
The U.S. tourism industry will also face an impact.
Data from China Tourism Research Institute shows that the per capita consumption of China tourists visiting the United States in 2024 will be approximately US$8000, contributing 12% of the annual revenue of the U.S. tourism industry.
If flight fares rise and flights decrease, it may lead to a decrease in the number of Chinese tourists visiting the United States, further affecting American hotels, catering, retail and other related industries.
From the perspective of the global civil aviation industry, the U.S. move will undermine the balance of the network of routes that has been formed for years.
Among the world’s major intercontinental routes, the Arctic-Russian route is one of the shortest routes connecting Asia-Europe and North America, involving 100 Chinese and foreign airlines.
If the U.S. forces a third-party airline to abandon the route, it could trigger a chain reaction that could lead to a global re-planning of the route and increase the overall operating costs of the aviation industry.
It is ultimately up to consumers and businesses to bear the consequences.
The deep enlightenment behind the game
The core of this route game is the collision between "hegemonic rules" and "international consensus".
The United States has long pursued the logic of "using rules for its own benefit and abandoning rules for its own disadvantage."
This is true in the aviation field, as well as in the fields of technology and trade.
But in today’s globalized and deeply integrated world, this “zero-sum thinking” has long been inappropriate.
The use of Russian airspace is a legitimate right based on bilateral agreements and international law, and the essence of China-US routes is to serve the exchanges and economic cooperation of the two peoples.
In the long run, competition between the great powers should not be at the expense of industry rules and people’s livelihoods.
The technological advantages in the field of rare earths and the legitimate rights and interests in the field of aviation are all achievements accumulated by China in accordance with laws and regulations in the process of globalization.
The U.S. Air Force’s trouble arises from its own geopolitical decisions.
conclusion
We can only return to the track of "respecting rules and negotiating on an equal footing."
To avoid dragging more fields into confrontation, the global civil aviation industry will return to the essence of “safe, efficient, and affordable”.
This is the right choice in the interests of both China and the United States.
Source: 2025-10-09 Xinhuanet China responds to strengthening export controls on rare earth-related items to safeguard national security interests
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