The whole set of benefits “from the cradle to the grave” requires high taxes to beined, however, the growth of welfare spending is difficult to decline, and high taxes inhibit economic vitality, leading to weak economic growth.
Writing is not related.
On October 6, France’s prime minister, Le Corneille, resigned after only 27 days. The prime minister was no longer in office for a month, and the new cabinet ministers were “a day trip” – Le Corneille completed the cabinet on October 5.
Macron became the French president in 2017 and appointed seven prime ministers successively, almost once a year.Beirut’s predecessor, Beirut, was in office for just nine months, with a “big percentage” out of a parliamentary vote of confidence. Beirut’s cabinet received only 194 votes in favour and 364 votes against. This was the fifth prime minister in the Fifth Republic to be “expelled” by a parliamentary case of distrust, with the dramatic “flare-back” of Beirut’s “flare-back” less than possible.
The dramatic resignations of two consecutive prime ministers highlight the current financial difficulties of the French government.
01
The Beirut Cabinet and Le Corneille Cabinet’s “destination mark” is France’s hard-to-produce budget for 2026, with a cut in budget spending of €43.8 billion, a social security cake and the lives of two cabinets.
France's draft budget for 2026, proposed in July this year and formulated by the Bayrou government, plans to cut fiscal expenditures by 43.8 billion euros and reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.6% of GDP.
In order to achieve this goal, the Belu government has adopted the approach of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure. It's just that the symbolic significance of "open source" temporary tax increase for high-income people is far greater than the substantive significance, and the main thing is to reduce expenditure-freezing the annual increase of pensions and social welfare and abolishing 3,000 government jobs.
Despite no cuts in welfare cakes, freezing welfare growth also carries huge political risks.In addition, there is an "addition" to cancel two public holidays, which is also because people hate dogs. French people who are accustomed to working less and taking more money are as delicate as princess peas.
You can imagine what twists and turns this budget will go through after it is submitted to Parliament. On the table are endless reviews and debates, and off the table are complex political games and exchanges of interests. After a round of bargaining, the possibility of reaching the expenditure reduction target is slim, and it is even possible to increase instead of reducing it.
In order to avoid parliamentary bargaining, Prime Minister Beirut reluctantly took the very initiative "49.3", the mysterious number referring to Article 49 (3) of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic of France. The clause authorizes the Cabinet to directly announce a bill without a vote in the House of Commons, unless the opposition party initiates a motion of distrust in the House of Commons and votes to force the Cabinet to fall.
The Cabinet has bypassed the mechanism of parliamentary review of the bill, forcing the parliament to "choose one": Either accept the Budget in its entirety or let the government fall directly.
In the fifth republic’s 60 years of history, this “gambling” operation has occurred 90 times and has caused huge political controversy each time. The prime minister, Beirut, has failed to survive and has been haunted by parliamentarians with “autoritarianism” and a lack of consultation. The mainstream public opinion in France is not on the side of the prime minister.
Parliament is heavily weighted by public opinion, and there is no doubt that Bayrou's cabinet will fail in a "life gamble".
In fact, Prime Minister Beirut did not have any illusions about this “gambling” success. It was a tragic “political suicide” ceremony. Beirut’s speech before the vote of confidence in Parliament ended in the form of a political legacy:
Hon. Members, you have the right to bring down the government, but you cannot erase reality. The reality will continue to exist: spending will continue to rise, the already overwhelming debt burden will become heavier and heavier, and the cost of debt service will become increasingly high.
Every sentence came from the bottom of his heart, but he couldn't wake up the French who pretended to be asleep.
What kind of debt dilemma made a country's prime minister gamble his political life so desperately and decisively?
02
France is a typical developed welfare country, and the "three-piece financial set" with high welfare, high taxes and high debt as standard has firmly trapped French finance.
The complete set of benefits "from cradle to grave" requires high taxes to maintain.However, the growth of welfare expenditure is easy to decline, but high taxes inhibit economic vitality and lead to weak economic growth. The imbalance between revenue and expenditure has made France's finances unsustainable. Even if the French government's fiscal revenue is as high as 45% of GDP and ranks second in the world in terms of fiscal withdrawal, it will not be able to maintain huge government expenditures. The ratio of French government expenditure to GDP averaged 53.98% of GDP from 1978 to 2023. The gap between revenue and expenditure can only be filled by borrowing, thus accumulating an overwhelming debt burden.
When President Macron took office in 2017, the total debt of the French government was close to 100% of GDP, well above the safety line of 80%. The president, who was born in the traditional center-right camp, is full of determination to restructure France's finances, but he is weak.
After eight years in power, the total debt of the French government has climbed to 113 percent of GDP. The annual deficit in 2025 is as high as 5.8 percent of GDP, close to twice as much as the EU’s budgetary warning line of 3 percent. The poor financial situation, making France compete for EU dominance, has turned into a joke.
Money is not omnipotent, without money it is omnipotent.Since the time of De Gaulle, France has been mindful of getting rid of the US-led NATO, and President Macron is also an ardent advocate of the European Union's army.
However, over the years, France's military expenditure has only accounted for about 1.5% of GDP, which is lower than the average level of 1.79% in African countries. Your own defense expenditure has been compressed to such a level. Can you still be expected to be able to provoke the beam of the great cause of building a European army? Therefore, President Macron is active in EU affairs, and France's situation in the EU is still in decline, and it is likely to be overtaken by the Netherlands.
It is urgent for France to revive the prestige, solve fiscal problems, and get rid of the role of the "broken EU".
The "three-pack" of French finances, the root of the disease is high welfare. The 2026 budget proposal of Prime Minister Beirut is a "soft knife" for high welfare. freeze the growth of welfare rather than cutting welfare. The spending target of €43.8 billion, less than 0.3% of the total budget expenditure. Absolutely not to talk about the big scratch. So cautiously, doing everything possible to bypass the high-pressure line budget, but to launch with the stake of "kill up" and eventually fall a high vote out.
Beirut hardly failed the parliament before, Leclerc's gesture was lower, and the head played a good attitude "to speak well." Not yet officially in office, on the promise to give up "49.3". Cancelled the two public holidays "add-on", also actively gave up. Annual fiscal deficit reduced to 3% to the goal of easing by 2029, and can still be talked about.
His attitude is very correct, his figure is very low, and the expenditure reduction of 43.8 billion euros is the last bottom line he insists on.After all, there is a 3% red line of the EU fiscal deficit, this little money is still to be saved. However, Le Corney's "in-game" has not exchanged for the good face of the parliamentary party giants, but only the flashback of entering and lying out.
This shows how "corrupt" French politics has become today.
03
Today’s French politics is filled with a monotonous charm, and it’s hard to find a few responsible politicians.
The rotation of governance that dominated French politics for decades has been completely broken, and the party organization has been shattered.In 2022, the two major political parties on the traditional left and right, the Socialist Party and the Republican Party, will receive a combined vote rate as low as barely more than 5%, completely marginalized. Instead, the "small parties" lined with hills are dancing wildly in the political arena.
It can be roughly divided into three factions, namely:
The traditional center-right wing represented by Macron's "Baath Party" is also known as the "presidential faction". Bayrou and Le Corny also fall into this camp. This faction is generally the orthodox successor of De Gaullism and the main promoter of fiscal reform.
Marine Le Pen's National League is represented by the populist right, the so-called "extreme right", which is currently the top leader in French politics, with an August poll showing its support rate of up to 33%.
The third is the left-wing coalition led by Meloon, with an opinion poll of 20% support.
It should be pointed out that France's so-called "extreme right" is not a traditional right wing and is not an ally of Macron's fiscal reform. Because in their view, all problems in France are caused by globalization and immigration, and anti-immigration and anti-globalization have become a panacea for all diseases.
The so-called left is the colorful extreme left, and the moderate left is the socialist party of yesterday.He was replaced by the French youth-loved Merlon, mostly the French version of Sanders. The old-fashioned, old-fashioned, far-left politician even used the campaign slogan “End the Fifth Republic” as a slogan, and his subversion was visible.
In highly polarized French politics, one is the far-right madness of “globalization is the fault of everything”, “the source of all evil is immigration”, and the other is the far-left hypocrisy of “comprehensively nationalized” with only the right-wing “presidential” single. The president’s attempt to touch the welfare cake cost a sharp decline in popular support. A poll in August this year showed that the popular support rate for the presidential party was only 15%, far below the popular right-wing 33%, and below the far-left’s 20%.
The lack of popular support of the presidential party is the weakest minority in the parliament. but the two major camps of extreme right and extreme left did not get the majority in the parliament, and the two major camps are also mountainous, the contradictions are heavy. so the presidential party can hardly get the prime minister nomination. but only to get the prime minister nomination, it is impossible to promote substantial reforms in reducing welfare benefits and spending. Even a mere 0.3% fiscal reduction is an impossible task.
None of the parties, or even the camps behind them, won a parliamentary majority. The political opinions of the major camps are irreconcilable and highly polarized. The election was not won and the negotiation was not conclusive. You can imagine the despair of the two French prime ministers, Bayrou and Le Corni.
When explaining the reasons for his resignation, Le Corni said that "the current political environment is extremely complex. Some political parties pursue party interests too much and forget national interests." His anger was evident in his words. But see also Bayrou's political last words,"You have the right to let the government fall, but you cannot erase reality."
At the Munich Security Conference in February this year, U.S. Vice President Vance bluntly pointed out: "You European leaders have no ability to solve any major problems." This aroused great dissatisfaction among Europeans, and the French media Le Monde denounced it for "interfering in European affairs" and made a resounding noise. However, two French prime ministers have been dismissed one after another, and the new French cabinet and the 2026 budget have been difficult to produce, which confirms Vance's view to a certain extent- At least the French leaders do not have the ability to solve any major problems.
This "political incompetence" is not a lack of personal capacity, but a long-term suffering from high welfare illnesses. Even the slightest touch of welfare cake will lose popular support, fall into isolation, and long-accumulated social problems become a container of political sanctions, no one can lead France out of financial trouble.
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