[Global Times reporter Yang Shuyu] Data released by Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) on the 8th showed that as of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the export volume for the whole of 2024 and 2023. According to Reuters analysis, in addition to record soybean production, strong demand from China is also an important reason.

Anec expects shipments of soybean exports to be 7.12 million tons in October, about 2.7 million tons higher than the same period last year. Anec also predicts that between November and December, an additional 8 million tons are expected to be exported, with Brazil exporting 110 million tons of soybeans at the end of the natural year. According to data from the association, as the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, Brazil's soybean exports reached a record high of 101.3 million tons in 2023, and this record has now been set.

According to the Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) data, in the 2024/2025 crop season, Brazil¡¯s soybean production rose to 6.3 billion oats (1 ounce equivalent to 27.216 kg) as the basis for export growth. At the same time, Brazilian farmers are benefiting from the strong demand from China. According to the Brazilian news agency, a survey by the U.S. Bureau of Agriculture Federation representing six million U.S. farmers showed that the U.S. soybean exports to China from June to August were ¡°nearly zero¡±, and China did not purchase any new soybeans harvested in the U.S. next year, providing new market opportunities for suppliers in other countries such as Brazil, Argentina and other countries.

The organization said that from January to August 2025, China imported 5.8 million tons of soybeans from the United States alone, down 80 percent compared to that, Brazil became the main supplier of soybeans to China. In the same period, Brazil exported more than 77 million tons of soybeans to the Chinese market. Argentina increased soybeans sales after the suspension of export taxes, and returned taxes after the exports exceeded $7 billion, which fueled the country's growth in soybeans sales to China. The Hong Kong South China Morning Post recently that Argentina's soybeans export orders rose to a seven-year high in September, and Chinese importers purchased millions of tons during the suspension of export taxes.

China is a major market for global soybeans trade, accounting for about 60% of global total imports. The agricultural media "Farmdoc Daily" website that 23% of U.S. soybeans production and 48% of Brazilian production were exported to China in 2024. The United States was one of China's major soybeans suppliers, but this trend has changed over the past decade. Between 2011 and 2017, U.S. soybeans exports to China accounted for an average proportion of 60% of its total exports; and between 2018 and 2024, the proportion fell to an annual average of 47%. The U.S. Bureau of Agriculture Federation analyzed that this decline was not an isolated event, but the result of China's multi-annual supplier policy.