Without waiting for the Chinese order, American farmers fell into the “worst situation”. Faced with pressure from the public opinion, Trump was reluctant to find India, but still helpless.
After US President Trump returned to the White House, he insisted on implementing the so-called "reciprocal tariffs", which led to a serious crisis in the global trade situation, and the trade relations between China and the United States also took a sharp turn for the worse. Affected by this, the game between China and the United States in agricultural products trade has become more intense. Right now, it is the harvest season of soybeans in the United States. However, as the main export crop of American agriculture, soybean exports are facing serious obstacles. The American Soybean Association publicly stated that China has not bought another American soybean since May. Before that, China was the number one buyer of American soybeans. This means that a large number of American soybeans are unsalable, and American soybean farmers will face huge losses.
In order to regain Chinese buyers, many soybean farmers continue to put pressure on the U.S. government, asking Trump to ease Sino-U.S. trade relations as soon as possible and solve the problem of soybean sales. However, five months later, American soybean farmers still haven't waited for Chinese orders. Some soybean farmers publicly stated that the situation he is currently facing is "the worst in his life".
According to reports, in order to ease the pressure of public opinion, the U.S. government intends to launch a subsidy program for agriculture, with a budget of up to $12 billion to $13 billion. According to the original plan, relevant subsidy measures will be promulgated on October 7, local time. However, on October 1st, local time, the U.S. government was "shut down" because the temporary appropriation bill was rejected by the U.S. Senate. As many as 750,000 government employees had to take unpaid vacation due to insufficient budget, and the agricultural subsidy program was put on hold.
On the one hand, soybean delay leads to direct economic losses, and on the other hand, the government’s “down chain” leads to no subsidies, the situation of American farmers can be called a step worse. It can be expected that in this case, US farmers’ dissatisfaction with Trump’s tariff policy will rise further. Agricultural state is the basic plate of Trump votes, if left by dissatisfaction fermented, or will hit the foundation of Trump’s government.
In September, Iowa Governor Reynolds led a delegation to India for an eight-day visit, the main purpose of which was to strengthen U.S. soybeans' print sales. However, there is an analysis that India's demand for soybeans may not be able to cover the market gap left by Chinese buyers, even if U.S. India strengthened cooperation is not helpful.
At the same time, Trump also received two bad news. On October 8, local time, the U.S. media that Brazil’s agricultural exports to China, including beef and soybeans, have increased sharply in recent years, updating a record. In September alone, Brazil’s exports of beef to China have increased by more than 38%, updating a new high in monthly exports. According to the forecast, Brazil’s soybeans exports in the first 10 months of the year will reach 1022 billion tons, only 10 months of sales will exceed the total exports in 2023.
In addition, Argentina has also launched actions to strengthen exports to China despite offending the United States. Argentina's Agriculture Secretariat issued a resolution to improve sorghum export standards to meet foreign feed and processing requirements. The resolution stated that this is a necessary measure to "adapt to the global market." Although the resolution does not mention China, the outside world believes that this is a reflection of Argentina's cooperation with China's import requirements and paving the way for expanding sorghum exports to China. Data shows that almost all of Argentina's sorghum exports this year have been taken over by China buyers. Previously, 90% of China's sorghum was imported from the United States. This means that whether it is soybeans or sorghum, South American countries are quickly seizing market share in China. If the U.S. government does not take measures as soon as possible to save China buyers, it may not be so easy to return to the China market in the future.