Preliminary
In October 2025, a two-year high-intensity conflict that finally hit the “possible” cessation key, Israel and Hamas reached a phased ceasefire agreement in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh, which appears to be a step-by-step political deal between the two sides, but looking at the terms, the real core is in two key details:
The first is the exchange of hostages, the second is the withdrawal conditions. Especially the Israeli army still controls 53% of the territory of Gaza, and Hamas in exchange for a complete withdrawal of the armed forces, must collect arms.
Controlling 53% does not call withdrawing troops, it is called preparing for war; disarming in exchange for withdrawing troops, is Hamas willing to gamble and admit defeat?
The biggest highlight of this agreement is not the signing, but how it was signed, the Israeli military did not completely withdraw from Gaza, but reduced the control range from the original 85% to 53%. Do not underestimate this number, the part that is retained is not the edge, but includes the south of Rafah and several transportation key routes.
If Hamas wants the knife to be completely removed, there is only one condition: gunpowder. Not symbolically putting out a few old AKs, but completely disarming and handing over the control of Gaza to a “technical bureaucracy”, that is, an administrative agency without political colour.
Judging from the text of the agreement, this arrangement is not a sudden whim, but a planned "phased hurdle". In the first stage, the foundation of trust is created through hostage exchange, and in the second stage, troop withdrawal and governance handover are discussed. The problem is that this "trust" is a question mark in the eyes of both sides.
In the past two years, two ceasefire agreements have been put to waste paper, and this time Hamas has put forward a special requirement: “The war never begins again.”
The exchange of hostages for prisoners is not a deal but a trial; the release of those who are not released is a political signal.
In this agreement, the exchange of hostages and prisoners has become another highlight. Hamas will release all surviving Israeli hostages, about 20 people, within 72 hours; Israel will release 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in batches, including 250 life prisoners.
It sounds like an equivalent exchange, but the details often hide the truth. Israel has made it clear that it will not release the core elements involved in the attacks on 7 October 2023, nor will it let the symbolic leader of Fatah, Barghouti, be free, which is not a mere judicial judgment, but a demonstration of a political stance.
Hamas, of course, is unhappy and believes that such a prisoner list is unhealthy.But under international pressure, it still chooses to “change people first and talk about them.”This is actually a strategic reason for Hamas to “breathe a breath.”In the last two years, Gaza has killed more than 670,000 people, the city is almost grounded, Hamas needs time to rebuild and a “political gesture” to regain support from regional allies.
And on the Israeli side, in addition to the hostages can go home, the most important thing is to “cut the red line” with the prisoners list. Release can be talked, but the bottom line can not move, which for the Netanyahu government, is the key grasp to maintain the domestic hardships support. From this point of view, this exchange is more like a “public relations war”, who did not intend to compromise, but wanted to get a point of applause on the international stage.
A ceasefire is not peace, a supervisory agreement is the art of the door; Trump is coming to oversee, who will oversee Trump?
The problem of signing the agreement has just begun. The most troublesome thing is not who should withdraw troops and who should disarm, but who will keep an eye on the implementation of this agreement. Trump has made a high-profile announcement that he will personally fly to the Middle East to "supervise the implementation" and also proposed to set up an international peace committee to unite Arab armies to supervise the governance of Gaza.
It sounds funny, but there are also many questions, who will determine the scope of the powers of the Peace Committee? how to deploy the troops? how to trust Hamas? how to recognize Israel? none of these issues have been solved, and more realistic is that some European countries are still drawn to the water, such as Italy, because of the export of weapons to Israel, the defendant has been charged with the International Criminal Court, external intervention has become "seed", this peaceful surveillance war, may be more complicated than the front.
And the real risk is the fragility of the agreement itself, history has taught us: November 2023 and January 2025, the two ceasefire agreements were broken due to problems with the implementation of the details, this agreement also did not clearly verify whether Hamas really disarmed, nor listed the specific timetable for the withdrawal of the troops, this "conditional detail", is easy to take as an excuse, anyone can say the other party did not do it, they will not fulfill it.
Although Hamas is currently willing to cooperate, once it is discovered that it is "still under control after disarming", it will inevitably rebound. The Israeli army has also made it clear that if Hamas refuses to disarm, it will retain the "right to maneuver". To put it bluntly, you can call back at any time. This "right to maneuver" seems legal, but it is actually an invisible combat license.
conclusion
The agreement is indeed the most substantial step in two years, but it is more like a “deal in the agreement” – each clause is conditioned, each condition is hidden in risks, the military control of 53%, is strategically “leaving a hand”; Hamas is willing to exchange, is the situation’s forced “breath.”
In a larger context, the U.S. has regained control of the Middle East through the agreement, Qatar and Turkey have mediated their position, and the internal restructuring of Palestine is also quietly underway, but it is all based on one premise: can the agreement be sustained.
So peace is not achieved by an agreement, it requires rules and trust, and these two things, in this place of Gaza, have never been so easy.
References:
Hamas agrees to release hostages and hand over the management of Gaza. Can the Gaza conflict end?
2025-10-04 news
What did the Gaza negotiations achieve?
2025-10-09 15:38 · Beijing Daily Client
The agreement is reached, Israel will completely withdraw its troops! Hamas, Netanyahu thank Trump! International gold prices plummet, US officials: The war in Gaza is over
2025-10-09 ·Daily Economic News