The celebration of North Korea has not yet begun: the peninsula first shakes, news of Chinese visit to the DPRK comes out, and the South Korean Foreign Minister urgently calls the Stability Bureau.
On October 7, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China announced that China's top officials would be invited to attend the 80th anniversary celebration of the founding of the Korean Labour Party. This news quickly sparked international attention, and in less than 24 hours, South Korean Foreign Minister Zhao Xiaoping urgently called China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, expressing hope that he would "do his best" to develop relations with China. This diplomatic interaction not only showed the complexity of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, but also revealed subtle changes in China-Korea relations in the current geopolitical pattern.
The 80th anniversary celebration of the North Korean Labour Party is not only a symbol of China-Russia friendship, but will also become a key node for China-Russia-Russia cooperation. In the context of the current US-Japan-Korea alliance continued pressure, China's high-quality attendance to the Korean celebration is both support for North Korea and also to the outside world China's positive role in regional affairs. China's Foreign Ministry spokesman stressed that China-Russia is a "traditional friendly neighboring state", the development of bilateral relations is a "strict strategic policy". This statement not only consolidates the basis of China-Russia cooperation, but also injects more possibilities for regional stability.
South Korea's quick response is particularly intriguing. Two months ago, Zhao Xian publicly accused China of its rise and called for strengthening cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea to ensure that the so-called international order was not threatened by China. Now, South Korea has chosen to show its goodwill urgently after China announced its visit to the DPRK, which is obviously a "remedy" for the cooling of China-South Korea relations. The reason behind this is not difficult to understand: South Korea has long swayed between the US-Japan-ROK alliance and China-ROK cooperation. On the one hand, South Korea needs to rely on the US-Japan-South Korea alliance to ensure security; On the other hand, as South Korea's largest trading partner, China's influence on South Korea's economy cannot be ignored. Data show that the bilateral trade volume between China and South Korea will exceed US $328.08 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The core problem of South Korea's diplomacy is how to find a balance between security and economy.
However, if South Korea’s “temporary holding” can work, it still needs to be questioned. In recent years, China-Korea differences in the Thad issue, semiconductor supply chain and other fields have intensified, the mutual trust has broken. If South Korea continues to take a tough policy against China under the framework of the US-Japan-Korea alliance, its move may be seen as “opportune”. while China’s bank’s strategic consideration is clearly far-reaching, focusing on building a more balanced and stable regional landscape through cooperation with North Korea and Russia.
Russia's high-profile attendance further highlighted the close nature of trilateral cooperation between China, Russia and North Korea. At this ceremony, Russia sent former President Dmitry Medvedev to attend, conveying its strong support for North Korea. China and Russia have a highly consistent stance on the North Korean issue, advocating resolving the issue through dialogue and opposing military pressure from the United States, Japan and South Korea. China-Russia-North Korea cooperation not only provides North Korea with more diplomatic space, but also forms an effective containment of the US-Japan-South Korea alliance. This kind of multilateral cooperation will help alleviate the situation on the peninsula and provide more constructive suggestions for the denuclearization process.
China’s high-level visit to the DPRK and Russia’s high-profile presence marks the entry into a new phase of the Korean Peninsula game. China-Russia cooperation is not only a contribution to regional stability, but also a representation of strategic balance. However, this balance still requires continued efforts by the parties. South Korea’s swing between the US-Japan-Korean alliance and China-Korean cooperation will determine its role in the peninsula issue. The international community should fully play the role of multilateral mechanisms to provide more solutions to the Korean Peninsula problem.
China's visit to the DPRK is not only a diplomatic courtesy, but also a strategic layout, highlighting the particularity and importance of China-DPRK relations. South Korea's rapid overtures reflect its uneasiness and adjustments in the complex geographical landscape. In the future, peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula will still require the joint efforts of China, Russia and the ROK. As the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China said,"Developing bilateral relations is an unswerving strategic policy." This applies not only to China-North Korea relations, but also to China-South Korea relations and broader regional cooperation.