The Chinese side is not late, let Trump break the defense! has vowed to visit South Korea but does not necessarily attend the summit, this is not wanting to stand with the Chinese side, or there is another reason?
According to Yonhap News Agency, the APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting will open in Gyeongju, South Korea on October 31st. Trump has decided to visit South Korea at the end of the month, but there is still no certainty whether to attend the summit.
First, look at Trump’s wave of “chart-lapse”, appearing as if the diplomatic agenda is not well-defined, but think about APEC’s share – 21 economies in the Asia-Pacific, a cooperation platform of more than 40 billion people, almost 60% of the world’s GDP come from here, which is obviously not a simple “chart issue”.
There has always been trouble in Sino-US relations that cannot be hidden at APEC, and this time it is the same.
Trump's hesitation is clearly the concentration of Sino-U.S. structural contradictions on multilateral occasions, and China's position precisely indicates the next possible direction of relations between the two countries.
Let's first review the past of China and the United States at APEC. This platform has never been a place to "only talk about the economy without encountering conflicts."
In 2014, at the APEC Summit in Beijing, everyone was happy for the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area.
China’s proposal was to break down trade barriers so that all members could share the benefits, with 21 members voting in favour.
But the U.S. side does not object, but is pushing its own TPP in secret, wanting to circle some countries with high threshold rules, and turn the Chinese side out.
This pattern of “dark cooperation” has only changed slightly by 2023.
At the time, the United States signed the San Francisco Vision at the summit, defined the five directions of cooperation, and even resumed military dialogue, engaged in anti-drug cooperation, making the outside world feel that the two countries can still manage differences.
But only two years later, the focus of the game of the Qingzhou Summit has changed, from traditional trade to AI, digital economy and these new areas, differences look more hidden, and the reality is more crucial.
Why Trump “does not dare” to set the APEC trip?
Looking at the United States, Trump suddenly imposed a 25% tariff on South Korea in July this year, and the Korean business community then exploded the pot. Now he wants to visit South Korea, and must share the benefits of South Korea in shipbuilding cooperation and defense spending, and stabilize this ally.
However, if you attend the APEC summit, you will not be able to get in touch with China.
The domestic conservatives of the United States have long spoken, opposing Trump in tariffs and technological restrictions to the Chinese side, if he said soft words at the summit, the opponent would take this matter to attack him.
Of course, what is more critical now is that China has not relented on the Sino-US meeting. Trump wants to meet, but if he is still "sidelined" when he arrives at the scene, wouldn't he lose face? Therefore, the so-called "may not participate in APEC" statement is also giving yourself a way out.
The current tension between China and the United States means that the United States wants to promote the “AI closed-source monopoly”, simply putting advanced AI technology in its own hands and a handful of allies, not allowing China to touch.
However, China does not do so, putting forward the six principles of "AI to good, fair and universal", and also actively sharing technology with developing countries.
Interestingly, many countries in the "Global South" agree with China's approach. For them, being able to obtain practical technology and participate in AI development is much more than being able to "take sides" with the United States.
This conflict of ideas has made Trump's attitude towards the APEC summit even more ambiguous.
He both wants to rely on APEC to maintain U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific, and is not willing to make concessions in tariffs and technology, afraid of losing the face of a concession, and more afraid that China will save more support in multilateral occasions.
However, China's position has always revolved around the words "development" and "equality" and has never wavered. This open attitude is clear when compared with the US practice of engaging in "small circles".
In fact, South Korea is also curved now, both want to rely on the economic benefits of Trump's visit to Hunan, and do not want to lose the Chinese-led RCEP, after all, they can earn a lot of money from it every year.
Singapore, Canada and other countries are also concerned that if China and the United States speak each other at the APEC summit, the Asian-Pacific economic pattern may be split, and trade and investment will follow two sets of rules, and the cost of enterprises will rise.
This general anxiety just shows that China and the United States need to find the "greatest common denominator".
The previous San Francisco Summit has proved that as long as the United States respects China's core interests and does not engage in unilateral pressure, both sides can come up with practical measures on matters such as drug control and climate change.
As for whether Trump will go to Gyeongju in the end, it will indeed make a little impression in the short term. If he does not go, it may be easier to reach consensus on issues such as AI and free trade. After all, there will be one less point of disagreement.
But in turn, as an important economy in the Asia-Pacific region, the absence of the United States will also weaken the influence of the conference.
And in the long run, the direction of China-US relations is not determined by this meeting.
The key is to establish the "correct perception" in the "San Francisco Vision", both sides must understand that confrontation is not good, cooperation is the only way.
China has made it clear that it is okay to cooperate, but it must respect each other. Whether it is AI technology sharing or tariff exemptions, the United States must take practical actions. It is useless to just talk.
Sino-US relations are now at a crossroads. Whether to escalate frictions and drag the Asia-Pacific into "camp confrontation", or manage differences and find space for cooperation within a multilateral framework is all up to Trump's mind.