Netanyahu, who is self-sufficient, has finally come down to Qatar under the pressure of reality.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
On September 29th, local time, a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar broke the diplomatic deadlock in the Middle East-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally apologized for the Doha air strike on September 9th in a three-way phone call with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed and US President Trump.
The air strike killed a Qatar security officer and interrupted the ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and the United States. At that time, Netanyahu not only did not restrain himself, but publicly accused Qatar of "harbouring terrorists" and even said that "another strike will not be ruled out."
20 days, from “callboard” to “low head”, Netanyahu not only apologized, but also announced that he would pay compensation and promised not to attack Qatar again.
Behind this series of shifts lies the political calculus he had to compromise.
Mohammed, Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Qatar
In fact, Netanyahu's "tough start" was a double misjudgment.
First of all, he underestimated Qatar's "irreplaceability" in Middle East mediation. The communication channel between Hamas and Israel has long relied on Doha. On the day of the air strike on September 9, the Hamas negotiating delegation was mediating with Qatar with the ceasefire plan proposed by the United States.
The airstrikes not only killed five Palestinians, but also directly stalled the ceasefire talks.
Hamas subsequently announced the “temporary closure of all channels of communication with Israel,” meaning that Israel has lost a key bridge by negotiating to ease rocket attacks in the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu may think that Qatar is just a "small player", but he didn't expect the other party to hold the trump card of "mediator". Once Qatar withdraws, Israel will face a more difficult conflict deadlock.
Trump visits Doha in May.
There has long been a deep bond between the United States and the United States —— during Trump’s visit to Doha in May this year, the two countries signed a $1.2 trillion cooperation agreement, and Qatar also donated a $400 million Boeing 747 aircraft to convert the United States “Air Force One”;
More importantly, Udead, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, is located in Qatar, the core hub of the U.S. military in combating extremist groups.
After the Israeli air strike on Doha, criticism immediately appeared within the White House. The US media revealed that "some officials believe that Israel's actions are too reckless and may endanger the interests of the United States in the Middle East."
In this regard, the United States can no longer sit and take the lead in organizing the three-party talks, in fact, is to give Netanyahu the "steps", and also force him to make concessions.
Trump and Netanyahu
But the hard stance of Netanyahu has been crushed, and there is also the real pressure of domestic diplomacy.
At the domestic level, his ruling coalition has had cracks: a faction openly questioned “that apologizing to Qatar is a weakness”;
The other faction is worried that Israel's successive attacks on eight Middle Eastern countries (including Lebanon, Syria, Iran, etc.) have triggered collective regional vigilance. If relations with Qatar are not repaired, Israel will only fall into diplomatic isolation.
The reaction of the international community is equally evident, with more and more countries recognizing the Palestinian state, and when Netanyahu spoke to the UN General Assembly, representatives of many countries left.
Under multiple pressures, Netanyahu’s “hard man-set” was difficult to follow, and apologizing, losing money, and promising no more military strikes on Qatar became his only option to stop the damage.
Netanyahu holds cabinet meeting
In the current context, Netanyahu's bowing seems to have solved the short-term contradiction between the United States, Israel and Qatar, but it has set off a new chain reaction in the Middle East.
The most immediate impact came from the Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
Qatar has made it clear that it "will resume mediation work" and the US envoy plans to go to Doha again to advance negotiations, but Hamas's trust in Israel has long collapsed.
The deeper impact is the crack of confidence in the Arab countries in America’s “security commitments.”
Before Israel's air strike against Doha, the United States had informed Qatar of "possible military action" in advance. This detail was interpreted by RIA Novosti as "the United States acquiesced in Israel's action."
This has made many Arab countries realize that even if they have huge cooperation with the United States, they may not be able to obtain "security guarantees".
Relationships between the United States and Saudi Arabia are getting deeper.
Israel's own "attack diplomacy" strategy also completely went bankrupt because of this apology.
Since last year, Israel has been launching attacks on eight countries in the Middle East on the basis of “combating terrorism” and attempting to establish deterrence by military means, but this time it has bowed to Qatar, exposing its strategic weaknesses ——
Military action may be temporary, but it will trigger diplomatic backlash and ultimately end through compromise.
Looking back at Netanyahu’s political career, it’s not his first compromise, and every compromise is under real-world pressure.
Bow to Qatar this time is also his political calculation after weighing the pros and cons, but it may not be able to bring long-term stability.
The dissatisfaction of internal factions, the distrust of Hamas, and the vigilance of Arab countries will all become challenges to his subsequent administration.
Fighting continues in Gaza
For the Middle East, this "apology storm" is more like a signal: military toughness cannot solve contradictions, and relying on American asylum may not be able to sit back and relax.
The future Middle Eastern order may slowly change in more such “compromises and games.”