The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted since February 2022, causing countless casualties and economic losses. Many people point the finger at Russia's military actions, but some time ago, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel dropped a bomb in an interview. She said that in fact, Europe had a chance to suppress the situation in 2021 and avoid a large-scale war. Unfortunately, it was blocked by four countries. The four countries are Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. As soon as she said this, it immediately exploded in European politics. Poland and the three Baltic countries jumped back, but Russia happily echoed.
Merkel was German Chancellor for 16 years from 2005 to 2021 and is an evergreen tree in European politics. Her Russia policy has always been pragmatic, emphasizing solving problems through negotiations rather than hard bars. As early as 2014, after the Ukrainian crisis broke out, she and French President Hollande promoted the Minsk Agreement. Those were two agreements signed in September 2014 and February 2015. The main contents were ceasefire, prisoner exchange, autonomy in eastern Ukraine and so on. After the agreement was signed, although there was no complete truce, at least the conflict was controlled locally and a larger-scale spread was avoided. Merkel later mentioned in her memoirs that this agreement bought Ukraine time to strengthen its military strength and become a stronger country. But Russia has been complaining that Ukraine has not seriously implemented the agreement, and the West has not urged it.
By 2021, the situation is tense again. Russia is gathering troops on the Ukraine border, and everyone is worried that something big will happen. Merkel was still prime minister at the time. She felt that the Minsk Agreement was no longer working and had to be changed. She discussed with French President Macron and wanted to talk directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the EU level to establish a new dialogue mechanism. Specifically, at the EU summit in June 2021, she proposed that the EU should invite Putin to attend high-level meetings and handle the Ukraine issue in a unified manner. This idea sounds quite practical, because there are different attitudes towards Russia within the EU. Some want to make money from harmony, and some want to confront tough. If it can be unified, it may put some pressure on Putin to stop.
Merkel said in an interview on October 3, 2025 that Poland and the three Baltic states had been disturbed. The reason for their opposition was that they feared that the EU could not form a unified stance on Russia, feared that Germany and France would make too many concessions and sacrifice the interests of Eastern European nations. These countries had historically had Russian-dominated experiences, such as being controlled by the Soviet Union after the Second World War, so they felt that talking with Putin was weak and would encourage Russia to expand further. As a result, the summit documents did not adopt this idea, and Merkel and Macron's plans were put aside. Merkel said that if they were discussed at the time, they could avoid a comprehensive conflict in 2022. She also mentioned the impact of the new crown epidemic, because Putin was infected, not willing to
The interview was accepted when Merkel went to Hungary, where the local media Partyzán was on the backdrop of the opposition, and the interview soon spread. Former Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky was the first to jump out of the counterattack, and he said on social media that Merkel was one of the biggest people in German politics to hurt Europe, pushing war responsibility to others. Estonian Foreign Minister Chakhkner also said Merkel's remarks were absurd and ignored the fact of Russian aggression. Latvian and Lithuanian officials also stated and criticized her pro-Russia. Their logic is that Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and violated international law, and there is nothing to talk to such a country.
Russia's reaction is just the opposite. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Merkel's words made sense, proving that the EU was kidnapped by the extreme policies of Poland and the Baltic countries. Russia has always claimed that the West failed to fulfill the Minsk Agreement, which forced them to do it. Merkel's statement this time just provided them with ammunition. In fact, Russia has accused NATO's eastward expansion of threatening security since the end of 2021, requiring Ukraine to remain neutral and not join NATO. However, the EU and the United States did not give in, which led to the escalation of the situation.
The U.S. pushed the back and wanted to hold Russia through Ukraine. The Biden government increased military aid to Ukraine from 2021, and after Zelensky came to power, Ukraine became more pro-Western. Russia felt blocked, and NATO expanded east to home. Merkel wanted to deal with independence through the EU, but Eastern European countries believed more in the United States and did not want to risk. As a result, the opportunities for mediation escaped, and the war became a reality.
This inside story revealed by Merkel shows people the chaos of European decision-making. The four countries joined forces to block mediation, ostensibly because they were afraid of Russia, but actually because they didn't trust them internally. As a result, everyone paid the price. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine did not happen overnight, but has accumulated over the years. I hope that Europe can learn lessons in the future, achieve more unity and less infighting. Otherwise, such a tragedy will repeat itself.