Xinhua News Agency, Berlin, October 9 (Reporter Che Yunlong, Zhang Yirong) The German federal government recently released an autumn economic forecast report, predicting that the German economy will grow moderately by 0.2% in 2025, and it is expected to accelerate its recovery from 2026. However, it still faces downside risks caused by external uncertainties such as US trade policy.

The German Federal Ministry of Economy and Energy said in a statement that, unlike Germany's typical recovery model in the past, this round of economic recovery does not rely on foreign trade, but is driven by domestic demand, especially consumption and public investment. German Federal Minister of Economy and Energy Katerina Reicher pointed out that in the next few years, Germany's economic growth will largely rely on high government expenditure, including fiscal stimulus measures such as special infrastructure funds and defense investment, but only if structural reforms must be implemented.

The report predicts that Germany's economic recovery momentum will begin to strengthen from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, and the economic growth rate is expected to reach 1.3% in 2026.

However, Reicher said that Germany's economic prospects still face multiple risks, mainly including the changeable trade and security policies of the United States.

After shrinking for two consecutive years in 2023 and 2024, the German economy grew by 0.3% month-on-month in the first quarter of this year. However, as the United States imposed additional tariffs on imported automobiles and other goods since April, the German economy fell 0.3% month-on-month in the second quarter, and economic performance in the third quarter is expected to remain weak. Recently, Germany's five major economic research institutions released a joint forecast report pointing out that the additional tariffs imposed by the United States will have a serious impact on the global economy. Weak external demand will curb German export growth. The German economy is expected to grow by only 0.2% in 2025.