On October 7th, local time, South Korean Foreign Minister Zhao Xian dialed the phone of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the two sides exchanged views around the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea.
But during the conversation, Zhao made a rather subtle request: hope that China can promote the denuclearization and peace process on the Korean Peninsula in developing relations with North Korea.
It is worth noting that the time and background of this request coincide with the fact that a high-profile delegation from China and Russia is about to go to the DPRK to attend the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has previously confirmed that it will send a high-level delegation to visit North Korea from October 9 to 11 and attend the ceremony. At the same time, Russia's "United Russia Party" announced that Medvedev would lead a delegation to North Korea.
Vietnamese leader Surin will also make a state visit to North Korea with the highest standards.Multi-national high-level visits have made Pyongyang a focus of international concern and have complicated the geopolitical landscape of Northeast Asia.
However, South Korea's concerns are not groundless.
In recent years, China-Russia’s interaction has grown closer, especially in the context of profound changes in the current international situation, and this cooperation has been prominent.North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has spoken to Putin several times to raise the relations between the two countries to a “new strategic height”.
The relationship between China and North Korea is based on profound historical friendship and economic cooperation.
In economic and trade exchanges with the Korean Peninsula, data show that China hasined South Korea’s top trading partner status for more than 20 years in a row, while North Korea relies on China’s economic support to ease the pressure of international sanctions.
Faced with the approach of China-Russia-North Korea relations, South Korea hopes that China can use its influence to put pressure on North Korea to promote the denuclearization of the peninsula.
However, this expectation is clearly a misjudgment of the situation.The core of the peninsula nuclear issue lies in the contradiction between the DPRK and the US, and the key to solving the problem lies in the direct dialogue between the DPRK and the US, not through pressure from third parties.
In fact, the root of North Korea’s firm nuclear stance lies in joint US-Korean military exercises and long-term sanctions, which have strengthened North Korea’s sensitivity to security threats and thus intensified its determination to possess nuclear weapons.
At the same time, South Korea’s own diplomatic difficulties are also increasingly highlighted.On the one hand, it relies on U.S. security protection and has long regarded U.S.-Korean military alliances as the cornerstone of its national security; on the other hand, it cannot ignore economic ties with China.
Especially with the changes in the situation in Northeast Asia, the confrontation pattern between the cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea and the cooperation between China, Russia and North Korea has gradually emerged, and South Korea has to make a difficult trade-off between security and economy.
In fact, the realistic path to the denuclearization of the peninsula lies not in putting pressure on the DPRK through the international community, but in starting dialogue between the DPRK and the United States as soon as possible. The fundamental reason for North Korea's insistence on nuclear weapons is its concern about the long-term military threat of the United States, while the United States regards North Korea's nuclear weapons as a direct threat to its ally South Korea.
This vicious cycle of mutual distrust keeps the situation tense.To solve this problem, the two sides need to enhance understanding and build mutual trust, so-called "the bell must also be called."
At present, the situation in Northeast Asia is at a critical juncture. Will the confrontation pattern between China, Russia, North Korea and the United States, Japan and South Korea be further solidified? Can South Korea find a new balance between the United States and China? Is it possible to open dialogue between the DPRK and the United States and ease tensions? The answers to these questions deserve our continued attention.