Why did international gold prices hit another record high

The international gold price has recently rebounded high, breaking the historical threshold of $4,000 per ounce, sparking widespread attention in the market.How exactly does gold perform?Why is the international gold price soared?In the face of many uncertainties, can the gold price rise continue?

How is the trend of international gold prices?

On the 7th, the New York commodity exchange gold futures market trading the most active December 2025 gold price broke $ 4000 per ounce, once a historic high of $ 4014.60 per ounce.

Since the beginning of this year, the international gold price has risen by about 50%, and gold has become one of the most eye-catching major assets in the world. Analysts believe that the "fear of missing out" sentiment in the gold market is stronger than the profit-taking sentiment, resulting in enough buying to push up the price although gold has been overbought.

The high price of gold, coupled with innovation, reflects a double signal of rising global security demand and a decline in dollar credit.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, said at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut, USA on the 7th that investors should allocate "about 15% of their assets in gold." He believes that debt instruments "are no longer effective wealth storage means" and gold is "the best performing asset when the rest of the portfolio falls."

The latest report released by Goldman Sachs Group on the 6th raised its December 2026 gold price forecast from US$4300 per ounce to US$4900, citing "strong demand for central bank increases in holdings and private sector diversification." The report predicts that the annual gold purchases by central banks in various countries will reach 80 tons and 70 tons respectively in the next two years. Among them, emerging market central banks will continue to increase the proportion of gold in reserve assets to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

Why international gold prices soared

Gold is a typical shelter asset.Multiple factors such as the U.S. government's "stagnation", French political turmoil, economic concerns in countries such as the United States and Japan, and continuing geoconflict, together drive the market's shelter demand for gold.

First, the weak dollar and U.S. fiscal uncertainty have significantly increased the safe-haven appeal of gold. Due to the continued "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government, the release of key economic data has been delayed, resulting in a lack of clear guidance for the market's judgment on the economic outlook. In order to prevent risks, investors choose to continue to increase their holdings of gold.

Secondly, the Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates and hinted that loose monetary policy may still continue during the year, making US dollar assets less attractive. The decline in real interest rates and improved liquidity expectations jointly supported the rise in gold prices.

Third, the continued purchase of gold by central banks around the world and the inflow of funds from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also become an important force driving gold prices to record highs. The World Gold Council report showed that central banks resumed large-scale gold purchases in August, with a net increase of 15 tons of gold reserves that month. Strong demand drove gold ETF holdings to increase by 3.6 million ounces in September, up 17% year-to-date to 97.2 million ounces, the highest level since September 2022.

In addition, the current Japanese economy faces fiscal and monetary policy difficulties, weak economic growth, insufficient international competitiveness and multiple difficulties such as U.S. tariffs; domestic political polarization in France has intensified, weakening its ability to conduct large-scale fiscal rectification.

Can gold price rally last

Looking forward, if the Fed further reduces interest rates, the US dollar continues to weaken, and geopolitical tensions continue, the gold price may continue to strengthen.But as the gold price continues to innovate high, there is also the view that the market needs to prevent short-line adjustment risks.Many investors expect international gold prices to fluctuate over the course of the year or in the range of $3,800 to $4,100 per ounce.

At the beginning of this year, Bank of America predicted that gold prices would easily rise to $4000 this year. With the target achieved, the agency believes that gold has fulfilled most of its rising expectations and is currently slightly overbought. Bank of America issued a report on the 6th to remind investors to remain cautious, believing that gold may face "exhaustion of upward momentum" or may experience a "consolidation or correction" in the fourth quarter, and the correction price may be as low as US$3525. At the same time, UBS predicts that gold prices may fall back to US$3800 in the short term.

Another view believes that due to global geopolitical tensions that are difficult to change in the short term, global central banks continue to purchase gold, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is higher, the medium-and long-term trend of gold remains bullish. UBS is bullish on gold in the medium and long term to $4200. Citibank believes that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates in 2026, gold may challenge the $5000 mark.

Analysts believe that factors such as the restructuring of the US dollar credit system and the high debt of the United States have shaken the foundation of US dollar credit, and the value of gold will continue to increase in the long run.

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