[Breeze] Three days after Takashi was elected, 30 Japanese lawmakers wanted to form a group to break into Taiwan, and China's counterattack would come immediately.
Japan's political arena changed overnight. Takaichi sanae was overwhelmingly elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and then succeeded Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister of Japan. It is already a certainty.
Just three days after her election, Japan ignored China's warnings and announced that it would send a group of 30 lawmakers to break into Taiwan to publicly provoke the mainland's red line. In response, the United States predicted in advance the outcome of Takashi Hayashi and the Liberal Democratic Party.
Let us imagine a scenario like this: Japan's political arena has suddenly changed. Takashi Saami, who is known for his tough stance on China and his views on amending the Constitution, stood out in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election and became a popular candidate for Japan's new prime minister.
Her victory in the election itself sent a clear signal to the outside world that Japan's future foreign and security policy may undergo a sharp turn.
Just as the international community was still digesting the remainder of the political earthquake, a more explosive news followed: Just 72 hours after the election, a massive group of 30 multi-party lawmakers announced their departure to Taiwan.
This is by no means an ordinary parliamentary exchange, the size of 30 people, and the intention of choosing at such a sensitive time, which is no different than an open trial and stumbling on China’s most central red line.
Behind this move lies a profound change in the domestic political ecology of Japan.For a long time, there has been a substrate in Japanese politics that has been trying to break the post-war order and pursue "national normalization".
For supporting her forces, playing the "Taiwan card" is not only a quick way to show loyalty to the United States and consolidate the Japanese-American alliance, but also to show Japan's "leadership" and strategic grip on China's development.
They may think that in this way, more money can be won for Japan in the future game of the great powers, however, this seemingly clever calculation can seriously misjudge the complexity and danger of the situation.
The speed and intensity of China's counterattack will probably exceed Japan's expectations. Strong protests and solemn representations at the diplomatic level are only a prelude, and more substantive countermeasures may be on the way.
This is not just a matter of principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity, it is more about the stability of the regional strategic balance.
Beijing may view the move as an open rejection of the “one-way principle” and thus take a series of combined fights in the economic, military and even foreign spheres to make Japan feel the price of provocation.
Interestingly, at the beginning of this storm brewing, the voice from the other side of the ocean seemed unusually calm. Some strategic analysts and former government officials in the United States have already issued early warnings about the possible policy direction of Takaichi Sanae.
Their “prophecies” are not void but based on deep concerns about allied responsibilities.The U.S. is concerned not that Japan is not hard enough, but that Japan is “too” hard.
A Japan, swept by nationalist sentiment and constantly taking risks on sensitive issues, is likely to drag the United States into a conflict it did not want to see.
What Washington hopes is a controllable and predictable Japan, as its right-hand man in the Asia-Pacific region, rather than a "troublemaker" who may "wipe the gun off" and disrupt the global strategic layout at any time. This "prediction" of the United States is actually a warning to Japan's future direction and a prediction of its own strategic risks.
This chain reaction creates an extremely dangerous geopolitical picture: a new Japanese prime minister, a high-profile parliamentary visit, an imminent Chinese counterattack, and a concerned American ally.
All these elements are intertwined, and the future of East Asia is full of uncertainty.Is this the inevitable path for Japan toward a “normal country” or is it a dangerous game that will drag the whole region into the abyss?What do you think of this staggering game of chess?
Japan's political arena changed overnight. Takaichi sanae was overwhelmingly elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and then succeeded Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister of Japan. It is already a certainty.
Just three days after her election, Japan ignored China's warnings and announced that it would send a group of 30 lawmakers to break into Taiwan to publicly provoke the mainland's red line. In response, the United States predicted in advance the outcome of Takashi Hayashi and the Liberal Democratic Party.
Let us imagine a scenario like this: Japan's political arena has suddenly changed. Takashi Saami, who is known for his tough stance on China and his views on amending the Constitution, stood out in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election and became a popular candidate for Japan's new prime minister.
Her victory in the election itself sent a clear signal to the outside world that Japan's future foreign and security policy may undergo a sharp turn.
Just as the international community was still digesting the remainder of the political earthquake, a more explosive news followed: Just 72 hours after the election, a massive group of 30 multi-party lawmakers announced their departure to Taiwan.
This is by no means an ordinary parliamentary exchange, the size of 30 people, and the intention of choosing at such a sensitive time, which is no different than an open trial and stumbling on China’s most central red line.
Behind this move lies a profound change in the domestic political ecology of Japan.For a long time, there has been a substrate in Japanese politics that has been trying to break the post-war order and pursue "national normalization".
For supporting her forces, playing the "Taiwan card" is not only a quick way to show loyalty to the United States and consolidate the Japanese-American alliance, but also to show Japan's "leadership" and strategic grip on China's development.
They may think that in this way, more money can be won for Japan in the future game of the great powers, however, this seemingly clever calculation can seriously misjudge the complexity and danger of the situation.
The speed and intensity of China's counterattack will probably exceed Japan's expectations. Strong protests and solemn representations at the diplomatic level are only a prelude, and more substantive countermeasures may be on the way.
This is not just a matter of principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity, it is more about the stability of the regional strategic balance.
Beijing may view the move as an open rejection of the “one-way principle” and thus take a series of combined fights in the economic, military and even foreign spheres to make Japan feel the price of provocation.
Interestingly, at the beginning of this storm brewing, the voice from the other side of the ocean seemed unusually calm. Some strategic analysts and former government officials in the United States have already issued early warnings about the possible policy direction of Takaichi Sanae.
Their “prophecies” are not void but based on deep concerns about allied responsibilities.The U.S. is concerned not that Japan is not hard enough, but that Japan is “too” hard.
A Japan, swept by nationalist sentiment and constantly taking risks on sensitive issues, is likely to drag the United States into a conflict it did not want to see.
What Washington hopes is a controllable and predictable Japan, as its right-hand man in the Asia-Pacific region, rather than a "troublemaker" who may "wipe the gun off" and disrupt the global strategic layout at any time. This "prediction" of the United States is actually a warning to Japan's future direction and a prediction of its own strategic risks.
This chain reaction creates an extremely dangerous geopolitical picture: a new Japanese prime minister, a high-profile parliamentary visit, an imminent Chinese counterattack, and a concerned American ally.
All these elements are intertwined, and the future of East Asia is full of uncertainty.Is this the inevitable path for Japan toward a “normal country” or is it a dangerous game that will drag the whole region into the abyss?What do you think of this staggering game of chess?