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Editor | L.Y.
Preliminary
On October 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump said in the White House that he had "basically decided" to provide Ukraine with long-range "Taxic" cruise missiles with a range of up to 2,400 kilometers, and that Russia's current air defense capabilities could not be effectively intercepted.
Behind this statement is Ukraine's weapons demands for months. Ukraine President Zelensky publicly threatened Moscow as early as the end of September, saying that he was ready to use long-range weapons from the United States, and even bluntly said that "Kremlin officials should know the location of bomb shelters in advance."
In the current equipment of the Ukrainian army, the British French provided "storm shadow" missiles with a range of only 250 kilometers, and the weight of the home-made long-range drone warheads is only 50-100 kilograms, it is difficult to constitute a substantial threat to Russian deep targets. while the "Tax" cruise missiles 400-450 kilograms warheads with a range of more than 2000 kilometers, can fill this gap, its latest improved range is even up to 2500 kilometers, enough to cover Russian core cities such as Moscow, St. Petersburg.
Details of the operation within the U.S. government are gradually emerging. Vice President Vance previously revealed that the White House is considering delivering missiles through "purchasing from European NATO member states" to reduce the political risk of direct US intervention.
Military expert analysis pointed out that there are both ready-made Tomahawk Block IV missiles in the US military inventory, and more advanced Block V missiles can be quickly produced. Both models can form combat capabilities in a short period of time. However, the operational threshold has become a key bottleneck-the "Tomahawk" needs to rely on high-precision three-dimensional topographic maps to plan its route before launch. The provision of such military confidential data means that U.S. or NATO experts may directly participate in combat preparations, which is exactly what Russia is most vigilant about. Risk points.
Russian Opposition
Just 48 hours after Trump made his statement, on October 8, the Russian State Duma formally approved the new military cooperation agreement with Cuba with a vote of 382 in favor and 41 against. The agreement covers multiple areas such as joint military exercises, military technology exchanges, and personnel training. Although it does not disclose specific deployment plans, it is enough to cause strategic anxiety in the United States. Havana, the capital of Cuba, is only 90 nautical miles away from Florida. The historical "Cuban Missile Crisis" has proved the sensitivity of this area to the security of the United States homeland.
Russia’s response has already been paved.On October 7, President Peskov, the press secretary, clearly warned that providing a “strike ax” would constitute a “serious escalation” of the situation, but at the same time retained the judgment that Trump “still has a will for peace.” President Putin went further, pointing out that such assistance would undermine the positive momentum that Russia-US relations had just emerged, and even stressed that “without direct US military involvement, Ukraine cannot use such missiles”, suggesting that American personnel would be seen as a party to the conflict.
In his October 7 column article, he noted that if the “Taxic Axis” were put into the battlefield, Russia could take two types of countermeasures: one is to massively strike the military leadership office area of Kiev, allowing Ukraine to pay the cost of threatening remarks; and the other is to transfer strategic nuclear forces to the highest level of combat readiness, implementing demonstrative strikes such as high-altitude nuclear explosions.
The demonstration could take place over Black Sea waters, allowing Odessa and Kiev residents to be directly witnessed, to deter the Western camps.A more realistic tactical response is already underway, and the Russian military is strengthening the three-layer air defense network “far-medium-near, high-school-low”, while planning to carry out “high-intensity destruction strikes” on missile storage points.
The game upgrades.
The United States is in a dilemma in decision-making. If missiles are provided as originally planned, it may not only trigger a tough response from Russia, but also face a real threat to local security. The implementation of the Russia-Cuba military cooperation agreement means that Russian warplanes and warships may return to Cuba, repeating the confrontation scene during the Cold War. The U.S. Southern Command has urgently assessed the risk and believes that Cuba's military presence may directly threaten the Air Defense Identification Zone along the southeastern coast of the United States.
The attitude of European allies is more complicated. NATO is building a Northern Army Multi-Soldat Command in Mikeli, Finland, 200 kilometers ahead of the original plan, apparently in response to the Eastern Front. But the deployment of “Taxic” missiles could push Europe to the forefront of conflict — Russian military retiree Colonel Ampilogov pointed out that the Ukrainian army could use such missiles to test Russian air defense systems, risking or hitting NATO countries such as Poland, Romania and others.
conclusion
Ukraine's expectations are in contrast to reality. The Zelensky government regards the "Tomahawk" as a key bargaining chip to force Russia to return to the negotiating table, but Russia has repeatedly emphasized that "weapons assistance cannot change the battlefield situation." From the perspective of actual combat effectiveness, the Russian Western Military District has strengthened the protection of strategic targets. Although the interception rate of its "Pantsir-SM" air defense system against cruise missiles has not been disclosed, it has accumulated actual combat experience on the Syrian battlefield. What deserves more attention is that the arrival of the "Tomahawk" may break the "long-range strike balance" between Russia and Ukraine, trigger a new round of weapons upgrade competition, and completely deviate the conflict from the track of political settlement.
This game around missiles and military cooperation has escalated from a local problem of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to a microcosm of the global strategic competition between the United States and Russia. The Trump administration's "Tomahawk" decision has not yet been finally implemented. Russia's Cuban counterattack has taken the lead. Europe and Ukraine, sandwiched in the middle, are becoming the most uncertain variables in this great power tussle.
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