After being elected as the new president of the ruling Japanese People's Party, Gao Xiaobo was expected to be appointed prime minister on 15 October, but Daily Asia on 9 October that her new prime minister's appointment could be postponed to at least October 20. This delay will not only affect the adoption of the supplementary budget, but also affect the meetings with leaders from China and the United States and other countries.
Three days after being elected president, High City on the 7th determined the vice president, director-general and other self-government party positions, among which former prime minister Moshin Tauro was self-government party vice president, former chief executive铃木俊一 was transferred to the chief executive officer, right-wing politicians, Senate members have村治子 promoted to the chief executive officer.
It is worth noting that Koichi Hagiuda, the former political investigation president who has been involved in the political cash scandal for a long time, served as the acting secretary general, which aroused the vigilance of the Komeito Party.
The leader of the Komeito Party, Tetsuo Saito, asked Takashi to take action to completely cut off the funding scandal, including strengthening the supervision of political donations by companies and groups. However, Hagiota's appointment to a high position has deepened the concerns of the Komeito Party.
In addition, Moshin has been in a distant relationship with the Communist Party and its supporters, the Buddhist Association for the Creation of Prices, and has also held an informal meeting with the leader of the National Democratic Party, Yūku Yūku, who sees him as a potential cooperation object.
In the context of an escalating crisis of trust, some members of the Communist Party have called for a withdrawal from the ruling coalition. Zido has said that if a coalition agreement is not reached, the Communist Party will not support the Communist Party in the prime minister nomination vote.
On October 10, the Communist Party will listen to local branches to decide whether to continue cooperating. The leaders of the two sides plan to negotiate the alliance agreement again later this month. The Communist Party originally planned to convene an interim congress on October 15 to formally appoint Gao as prime minister, but this deadline has not been achieved. The Communist Party now considers postponing the vote until October 20 or 21.
Gao has been calling for swift action to tackle inflation, such as expanding funding to support local governments. She has also pledged to abolish additional taxes on gasoline and diesel, and the ruling party and opposition parties have agreed to abolish these taxes by the end of the year.
High City needs to instruct cabinet members to implement its economic policy measures after taking office and prepare a supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025 to provide the necessary funds, which will take a period of one and a half to two months.
According to the analysis, successive Japanese governments usually introduce economic measures immediately after taking office in autumn. For example, Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba both issued budget instructions in early October of the year when they took office, and the supplementary budget was passed at the end of December of that year.
If the Takashi Cabinet is not established until the end of October or after, the possibility of passing the budget within the year will decrease. If the budget cannot be passed this year, emergency spending against inflation will be forced to rely on less than 300 billion yen in reserve funds.
Currently, the ruling coalition of the Democratic Party and the Communist Party does not have a majority in either House of Representatives, so it is not possible to pass the budget separately.After the additional budget, the cabinet must also immediately start working on the 2026 fiscal year budget and tax reform bill.
In coordination with the opposition, the People's Party and the High City viewed the National Democratic Party as a priority cooperation object, which advocated to raise the income tax exemption to 17.8 million yen. In December 2024, the People's, Public and National Democracy three parties discussed the matter, believing that it could not raise the necessary funds for trillions of yen, and agreed to implement a tax reduction of approximately 700 billion yen in the fiscal year 2025.
Gao’s diplomatic schedule is also very compact, but she has no experience as a foreign minister or defense minister, and a postponement in office will undoubtedly shorten the preparation time.
Takashi has previously made tough remarks on history and Yasukuni Shrine issues. The outside world is closely watching her diplomatic stance on China and South Korea.
She plans to attend the ASEAN summit in Malaysia on October 26th, which may be her first diplomatic test after taking office. Around October 28th, US President Trump is expected to visit Japan, and the two sides plan to discuss issues such as the implementation of tariff agreements and security cooperation. On October 31st, the APEC summit will open in South Korea, where Takashi plans to seek opportunities to meet with the heads of state of China and South Korea.
For the Japanese political trend in the high-market era, retired professor of political science at Columbia University and senior Japanese political observer Gerald Curtis said that the victory of the high-market “will accelerate the decline of the self-government party and ultimately lead to its collapse.”
Curtis, who attended the event in Japan on May 5, pointed out that the question now is “not whether the Democratic Party will collapse, but when it will collapse.” he predicted that the day “may come soon” because the Democratic Party and its leadership are likely to be unable to provide what the Japanese people really need.
Curtis expects that Takaichi will exercise restraint after becoming prime minister, because "it would be too stupid for her to create a major diplomatic incident in the first year". He also said that Takaichi didn't need to "prove herself for domestic political reasons" by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, because she was already very popular among conservative supporters in the party.
At the same time, Curtis believes that Goldman Sachs will not do much on China-Japan relations. he hopes that Goldman Sachs will use "common sense" and "find ways to deal with neighbors", China is Japan's neighbor, has become the world's second-largest economy and a strong military force.