Source: China News Weekly
On the early morning of October 9th, Beijing time, the Israeli government, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Qatari government and US President Trump almost simultaneously voiced the outside world, confirming that the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza had been reached.
According to preliminary disclosures, the agreement includes the release of all 20 hostages still held by Hamas within the next few days, the release of thousands of Palestinian detainees held for more than two years after October 7, 2023, the immediate opening of five crossings in the Gaza Strip to allow humanitarian supplies to enter, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops to the “agreed border.”
The agreement was guaranteed by the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. Hamas wasly pledged that Trump would ensure that the United States "will not allow" Israel to continue massive military operations in Gaza after the hostages were released.
Hamas makes fundamental concessions
In a public statement after the agreement, Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed gratitude to Trump. After two days of negotiations between the parties, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and President's special envoy Witkov arrived at Egypt's seaside resort Sham Sheikh, forcing Israel and Hamas to compromise within a day.
U.S. media noted that while it is almost impossible for Trump to get the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025, which is due to be announced on October 10, Trump still hopes to highlight himself as a “true peace maker” at this special moment.
However, it’s still too early to say that a “Gaza ceasefire” or a humanitarian crisis ended.In January this year, Trump also forcibly pushed Israel and Hamas to reach a phase one ceasefire agreement, “sacrificing” for their inauguration ceremony; but the Israeli side quickly broke the agreement and escalated military operations and material blockade in Gaza.
Several Palestinian and Israeli analysts pointed out to China Newsweek that although this behavior once put Netanyahu under greater international pressure and "slight dissatisfaction" from Trump, it has now yielded results that are "more beneficial to himself": Although the two sides of the negotiations have different interpretations of the "gains and losses" of the ceasefire agreement, most analysts believe that Hamas has made fundamental concessions in this round of negotiations.
Prior to the start of the ceasefire talks, Hamas senior official Khalid Kadumi told China News Weekly that the organization’s demands were to open access to humanitarian supplies, withdraw the Israeli army, “end genocide” and then negotiate hostages.Analysts pointed out that this was a statement of the “highest program” nature, Hamas’s real negotiating goal was “to deliver hostages and end the war”, “but the Israeli side demanded that only Hamas disarm, the war can end.”
Ultimately, in the current phase one agreement, all hostages held by Hamas will be released, and Israel will not need to withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip in full. "This means that Palestinians are still trapped in a tight area, while the Israeli army can resume military operations at any time, only possibly at a lower intensity initially," noted Daniel Levy, chairman of the American Middle East Project, a US think tank and a former senior adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister's office.
“Collectively breathing.”
After the ceasefire agreement was reached this time, Hamas called on all parties to ensure that Israel "fully implements the content of the agreement without delay or circumvention." However, most analysts believe that any minor contradictions and differences can serve as a reason for Netanyahu to restart military operations, and as long as Netanyahu can achieve a military victory, Trump will choose to support Israel, as he did in the Israeli-Iraq conflict in June this year.
"Trump is always on the side of the winner." As for other sponsors, Levy said, this round of talks has shown that "most of these countries have avoided using direct influence and are focusing on resolving the Gaza issue through diplomatic communication with the United States."
However, even though senior Hamas officials have repeatedly expressed their distrust of the "U.S. guarantee" before the negotiations, the internal and external pressure brought by the severe humanitarian situation in Gaza has prevented them from making other choices. Hamas leaders Khalil Haya and Zaheer Jabarin did not make any tough declarations after the Israeli assassination attempt at the negotiating site in Qatar in early September, but quickly agreed to participate in new peace talks.
After the first phase of the ceasefire is implemented, where will the humanitarian crisis in Gaza go? One possibility is that after the hostages were released, the situation returned to the situation in March and Israel resumed large-scale military operations. Moreover, this time, Netanyahu will no longer face opposition from domestic public opinion to "let the hostages go home first."
“Netanyahu has always wanted to occupy Gaza because he doesn’t trust anyone,” former Israeli Foreign Ministry Chief Aron Lear told China Newsweek, “Netanyahu doesn’t believe that the Palestinian Authority, Arab State or any force supported by the international community can manage Gaza after the war. Maybe someday in the future, he will think that Gaza can produce a ‘friendly’ administration.
Another less likely scenario is that the first phase of the ceasefire really went smoothly, but all parties could not reach a consensus on the post-war governance of Gaza and the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. Trump had no intention of promoting more after announcing "peace". Progress has been made, and Gaza has returned to a state of division, control and blockade by Israel.
“For the Palestinians in Gaza, their choice is: genocide or apartheid,” Levy said.
However, no matter what, the cessation of the war will be a relief for everyone in it, even if it is temporary. Al Jazeera's Gaza correspondent Hani Mahmoud wrote that the Israeli Air Force was still launching air strikes on the Gaza Strip after officials announced that an agreement was reached, but the Gazan people still "breathed a collective sigh of relief" after hearing the hope for peace. Since October 2023, this humanitarian crisis has killed approximately 67,000 people in the Gaza Strip and forced displacement of almost all 2 million residents.
Press Release: Caoran@chinanews.com.cn
Edited by:徐方清
Published by: Wang Lin