Since the resignation of France¡¯s 27-day prime minister Le Corneille on October 6 local time, the ruling coalition has been doing its best to avoid the worst: dissolving the National Assembly and re-elect.

On the evening of the 8th, Le Corni delivered a speech saying that after two days of negotiations with various political forces, the possibility of dissolving the National Assembly was fading. The Elysee Palace later confirmed that President Macron would appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours.

Has this sudden political crisis finally arrived at the dawn of the "breakdown"?

A leftist government?

Over the past two days, the Presidential Office and the Prime Minister¡¯s Office have held intense negotiations with the highest levels of political parties. As Prime Minister Guardians, Le Corneille has been commissioned by Macron to seek consensus among the parties.

On the evening of the 8th, Le Corney hinted in an interview that a compromise was being reached.

The Elysée Palace subsequently confirmed that a majority of parliamentarians opposed the dissolution of the National Assembly, and that the National Assembly could pass the draft budget for 2026 by December 31. Macron "will appoint the prime minister within 48 hours based on the outcome of negotiations led by Leclerc".

The latest dynamics show that while the three left-wing parties (Socialist, Communist and Ecological) have more than a hundred members in parliament, the prospect of forming a left-wing government seems to be emerging.

The turning point of all this began on October 7.

On the same day, former French Prime Minister and current Minister of Education Borna said that she agreed to "suspend" the implementation of the reform of "raising the statutory retirement age from 62 to 64" promoted by her in 2023.

As we all know, this is a real structural reform during President Macron's term of office, which has triggered millions of people to take to the streets to protest. Now, the caretaker government is willing to resubmit this reform to parliament for consideration, which is regarded as a major compromise to the left-wing camp.

The outside world believes that this may mean that after trying three right-wing prime ministers in a row, it is time to "put the left on the field."

However, the reform could be shut down and promptly trigger a chain reaction.

Senior Republicans, the centre-right conservative party, said this was a "red line that must not be crossed" and that the party "would never join a government led by the left or pro-Macron people."

But about 20 of the 43 Republican members of the National Assembly may once again draw a line with party positions. The question is, will these MPs support a center-left government?

In terms of the number of seats, the left-wing government will not be more stable than the right-wing government. Particularly, the Socialist Party has now collapsed with the main forces of its former ally, the ¡°New People¡¯s Front¡±, which ¡°does not succumb to France¡±; the ¡°does not succumb to France¡± leaders have made it clear that they will not participate in any action to ¡°save the Macron regime.¡±

Some French analysts believe that appointing a left-wing prime minister may be "unsustainable" because it means that Macron must completely abandon his core policies, especially the economic line.

The extreme right "watches the fire from afar"

At a time when Macron's government is overwhelmed, 450 kilometers away from Paris, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National League, seems to have entered the election state ahead of schedule.

At a farmers 'conference in the province of Doms, she said she was happy to be away from the political hustle of Paris."We are very calm."

She criticized those ¡°frightened of facing voters again¡± and reiterated that she ¡°will veto all government proposals until the National Assembly is dissolved.¡±

Le Pen's confidence is not without a source.

The latest polls show that once the National Assembly elections are held, the National League will be the only political party that gets more than 30% of the vote in the first round.

At present, the threshold for an absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 seats. Le Pen has indicated that if she can't get a majority alone, she is ready to extend an olive branch to "Republican lawmakers who are willing to cooperate". This move laid the groundwork for the follow-up political layout of the far-right camp.

Macron is isolated

On the morning of the 8th, the motion to impeach Macron proposed by some members was rejected by the Executive Board of the National Assembly.

According to the French Constitution, it is "almost impossible" to impeach the president from the parliamentary level. Even if the impeachment motion can pass the Executive Board of the National Assembly, it still needs to get a two-thirds majority in both the National Assembly and the Senate, and finally it needs to go to the High Court.

But it is undeniable that Macron¡¯s support base is rapidly collapsing and he is falling into an unprecedented isolation.

According to a poll released by Odoxa on October 6th, 70% of French people support the resignation of the president, an increase of 16 percentage points from a year ago; Another poll by Toluna-Harris Interactive showed that the proportion of people supporting his resignation was as high as 73%.

In addition to the backlash of public opinion, in recent days, Macron has not only been given a cold reception by the financial market (the French stock market fell significantly on the 6th), but even former "think tank consultants" Jacques Attali and Alain Mink have publicly drawn a clear line with him.

In addition, former prime minister Philip has publicly called for Macron's resignation, and former prime minister Attar has said he no longer supports Macron. Former president Hollande has said directly that Macron "cannot make mistakes anymore", otherwise the National Assembly would be dissolved and he would face huge pressure.

What is noteworthy is that on the 8th, Macron received the visiting Jordanian Crown Prince with grand etiquette at the Elysee Palace and did not speak out about the current political crisis. Since Prime Minister Le Korney resigned, Macron has remained silent.

The future of French politics depends more than ever on Macron¡¯s own decisions.

(Editor's email: ylq@jfdaily.com)

Original title: "Today and tomorrow, Macron's eighth prime minister is coming, but 70% of French people want Macron to resign"

Column editor: Yang Li Group Text editor: Yang Li Group Source: Xinhua Agency

Source: Liberation Daily °²