«--[· Preface ·]--»
On October 8, Trump, Israel and Hamas both said that a hostage exchange agreement had been reached and that Israel would gradually begin to withdraw its troops. Peace in Gaza has begun to dawn.
Interestingly, Hamas is also grateful for Trump’s mediation and mediation. From this, it can be seen that the release of hostages should be nailed on the board, and Trump’s mediation was successful.
“Why can Trump mediate?”
Trump could push both sides of Israel, basically because the United States holds a two-way voice that no one else has. This power is a survival-level support for Israel.
In the past year, U.S. military support to Israel has soared to more than $17.9 billion, setting a single-year high. Since 1959, the total amount of inflation-adjusted military aid has exceeded US$250 billion. Without this confidence, Israel's military operations in the Middle East cannot be sustained at all.
The U.S. is the main source of aid to Palestine and has key codes in hand. Hamas’ funds and supplies depend heavily on Arab countries such as Qatar, and the U.S. can completely cut the line by pressuring these allies.
Hamas was clearly aware of this, so soon after Trump dropped out the “20 Points Plan,” he responded through the mediator with a much more positive attitude than in the face of other mediators.
This ability to “feed sugar and shake the neck on one side” is something other countries don’t want to think about. Russia lacks economic ties to the Arab world, and the EU doesn’t dare to take a hard hand on Israel. Only the United States can simultaneously obey Israel and let Hamas see, which is the basis for mediation.
«--[·Iron-fisted execution·]--»
Influence alone is not enough. Trump's mediation can be achieved, and it is even more inseparable from his "not sloppy" ferocity. From the very beginning, he was not biased by the outside noise, and looked for the core goal of "hostage exchange + troop withdrawal" to the end.
On October 3, Trump gave Hamas an ultimatum directly. He drew a dead line on the social platform and asked the other party to accept the agreement before 6 p.m. Eastern Time on October 5th. He even made malicious remarks, saying that this was Hamas's "last chance" and that if he didn't agree, he would wait for an "unprecedented hellish blow." This tough stance completely broke the protracted deadlock in previous negotiations.
Hamas responded quickly.The group issued a statement on the same day that it agreed to release all Israeli hostages and was willing to hand over control of Gaza to independent agencies.On October 8, Trump directly announced that the two sides had signed the first phase agreement.
The whole process is clean, there is no room for repeated pulling by the parties. This rhythm of “setting goals – pushing forward – landing” is precisely what other mediators lack execution.
“Hard against the allies.”
Many mediators are focused on “not daring to blame allies,” but Trump is opposed. his pressure on Israel is not as soft as it is on Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had a tough attitude at the beginning, declaring that “negotiations should be carried out in artillery.” Trump didn’t eat this at all. He made details by telephone with Netanyahu Hutton, while directly on social platforms shouting Israel “stop bombing Gaza immediately.” This public pressure left Netanyahu no way back.
More importantly, Trump came up with actual chips. The U.S. House of Representatives has just passed a $26 billion aid bill to Israel, of which 4 billion is earmarked for missile defense systems. Trump can fully use aid as a starting point to sound the alarm for Israel. Netanyahu obviously weighed the weight. After Trump officially announced the agreement, he immediately stated that he would convene the cabinet for approval, and took the initiative to invite Trump to give a speech in the Israeli Knesset.
This approach, “even with the allies in mind,” completely cleared the biggest obstacle in the way of mediation. If it were in exchange for other countries, it would have long been a compromise in the face of Israel’s tough attitude.
«--[· Precision Trading ·]-»
Trump's mediation is not a one-man fight, but there is a set of "precise linkage" operating methods behind it. He knows very well that relying on the United States itself is not enough. It must bring in key regional players.
Four days before the agreement was reached, he sent his son-in-law Kushner and Middle East Special Envoy Witkov directly to Egypt, who were Trump’s “golden partners” to determine the details of the hostage release and the peace plan. At the same time, he also coordinated the three countries Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to join the negotiations to form the “Quarter Link” mediation line.
Qatar is an important liaison for Hamas, Egypt controls key crossings in Gaza, and Turkey has a voice in the Islamic world. The joining of these three countries not only gave Hamas a way out, but also helped Israel share domestic pressure. Hamas specifically mentioned "thanks to the guarantor countries" in its statement, which shows that this multi-party arrangement has worked.
When Hamas formally confirmed the agreement on October 9, it also took the initiative to call on Trump and the sponsoring countries to supervise the implementation. Behind this is the success of Trump's "U.S. leadership + regional cooperation" approach. He did not engage in a "one-word approach" approach, but used precise role allocation to allow all parties to participate in the peace process.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
In the early morning of October 9, Hamas issued a statement thanking Trump for mediating. Netanyahu also thanked him by phone.
The two-way influence of the United States is the foundation, the iron-fist execution is the propeller, the pressure on allies is the breakthrough, and the multi-party linkage trading is the guarantee. These four conditions were twisted into one rope, and the situation in Gaza, which had been deadlocked for two years, ushered in the dawn.
Hamas's gratitude is essentially an recognition of the United States 'right to speak. Netanyahu's compromise is rooted in his reliance on U.S. support. Trump just stepped on these two key points and promoted a breakthrough in the most direct way. It is hard to say whether peace in Gaza will last for a long time, but the success of this mediation has indeed given Trump's "negotiating skills" a sense of presence in the Middle East.