According to reports, in the second half of 2025, Sino-US soybean trade will usher in drastic changes. China's "doing what it says" has given American soybean farmers a thorough understanding of what it means to "lift a stone and shoot yourself in the foot." Orders returned to zero and the market changed owners. The Trump administration was stubborn while having to pay out money to appease American farmers. The United States has tasted the bitter fruit of containing China.
Since May this year, China's purchases of U.S. soybeans suddenly reduced to zero. Once, China was the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, and annual imports accounted for more than 40 percent of total U.S. soybeans exports. Can a tariff war, let this all stop. China's soybeans orders disappeared overnight, the farmers of the U.S. farmhouse, the more and more soybeans, and the darkness became the main tone of the Midwestern fall.
China's choice is very decisive. Since the United States is engaged in a tariff war, China has responded with "reciprocal countermeasures". The American Soybean Association has repeatedly warned Trump that the tariff policy has directly caused China to no longer place orders. But Trump also wants to "kill two birds with one stone": he does not give up the tariff stick, he also wants China to buy soybeans, and he also wants China to continue to supply rare earths. This calculation of both needs and needs will only make me suffer in the end.
China does not buy U.S. soybeans, turn down to Brazil and Argentina.On the one hand, the U.S. soybeans accumulate like a mountain, is about to mould, and on the other hand, the South American farmers' orders receive soft hands.
The Argentine government temporarily abolished soybean export taxes and directly seized the U.S. sales window. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent received a text message from the Secretary of Agriculture accusing Argentina of “butting back” U.S. farmers. U.S. media also reluctantly acknowledged that China continued to store Argentine and Brazil soybean, and the U.S. export window was thoroughly squeezed.
Without China’s orders, the pressure on U.S. soybean farming is huge. The soybeans can’t be sold out and will soon degrade. U.S. Department of Agriculture data show that in the first seven months of this year, exports of Chinese agricultural products declined by more than 50 percent. Main soybeans such as Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, etc., farmers are called the bitter. U.S. soybeans association, lobbying groups and farmers linked to the White House protest, directly indicating that Trump’s tariff policy is the culprit.
Some soybean farmers bluntly said that even if China and the United States reach an agreement now, they will not be able to catch up with this year's harvest season. Tens of millions of tons of soybeans are unsalable, and the risk of bankruptcy has soared. The "rice bowl" of American agriculture was smashed by the tariff war.
The main soybean producing area is the traditional ticket warehouse of the Republican Party. Trump has always regarded this place as an "iron ticket area" and won the election with farmers' support. But this year, soybeans can't be sold, and farmers' grievances are rising. Many farmers originally firmly supported Trump, but now they publicly express their dissatisfaction and even threaten to vote for other candidates in the next election.
American politics has long noticed that this tariff war "shoots itself in the foot" and is shaking Trump's fundamentals. The mid-term elections in 2026 are approaching. If farmers suffer, Trump may become a "lame president."
In the face of the pressure of soybeans, Trump has repeatedly shouted to China, hoping China will double its soybeans purchases, and even propose to raise its orders to four times the previous year, but China responded calmly: only if the United States removes unreasonable tariffs and returns to normal trade, China will resume purchases.
China's counter-measures directly hit the pain of the U.S. industry, whether it was grain imports or rare-earth exports, made it difficult for Trump to ride the tiger.
Seeing soybeans can not sell out, farmers complained, Trump began to look for remedies. he publicly announced that he will subsidize the affected American farmers with a portion of tariff income. But farmers understand that this is just a good idea and can not solve the root problem.
U.S. agriculture is heavily dependent on imported fertilizers and pesticides, tariffs added, the cost increased. Soybeans can not be sold out, the cost of crops increased, and farmers are hit. Trump said in his mouth that "short-term damage, long-term benefits", but farmers have no end in their hearts. U.S. media analyzes that the government's relief is difficult to compensate for the long-term losses caused by market loss. Many farmers have faced the edge of financial collapse.
The suffering of American soybean farmers is precisely the "happiness" of farmers in Brazil and Argentina. China's soybean import channels have been completely diversified, and South America has become the biggest winner. In the last Sino-US trade war, the United States lost 20% of its market share to Brazil, but has not been able to regain it yet. Now Argentina has temporarily abolished export taxes and seized another wave of markets. American soybean farmers can only "look at the beans and sigh".
More importantly, once the supply chain is solid, China is no longer dependent on the United States. Whether it is Brazil, Argentina, or more emerging markets in the future, China is promoting food security diversification. The United States wants to force China to make concessions by "negotiation leverage", which has already failed.
This soybean war is far more than just agricultural trade. Behind it is the geostrategic game between China and the United States. Speaking with China's orders is not only an economic counter-measure, but also a strategic layout. The United States wanted to exchange for a better agreement through pressure and coercion, but it ended up falling into the hole it dug.
Not only that, the United States also rescued Argentina while being "robbed" by Argentina. The anger of American farmers continues to ferment. The U.S. agricultural community even accused the government of being "too generous" to Argentina and ignoring its own farmers. This kind of "backstabbing" dissatisfaction is becoming a new "worry" for the Trump administration.