The war in Gaza is finally over?Hamas has confirmed its signature, Israel will also withdraw, and the first blame comes out in the midst of the change.
On October 8, local time, US President Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had signed the first phase agreement of his "20-point plan". U.S. officials even said directly: "The war in Gaza is over." This war, which has been fought from October 7, 2023 to the present, has lasted for more than two years, and finally there is a signal to stop.
On the surface, this is a historic turning point. Trump wrote in high spirits on social platforms: "All hostages will be released and Israel will withdraw its troops completely. This is the first step towards permanent peace." Hamas also rarely responded that "the war is over," thanking the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey for their mediation, and specifically mentioning Trump's name. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also spoke immediately, saying that this was a great day for Israel. The rare unity of the three parties shows that this negotiation has indeed reached the final stage.
However, a little analysis can see that behind the signing of the two parties, it was not because they suddenly figured it out, but because they were forced into a corner by reality. Hamas signed it because it could no longer fight; Israel signed it because it would not gain any benefits if it continued to fight. As for Trump, he needs a "peaceful outcome" to prove he can deliver on his promises before the midterm elections. When these three directions are superimposed, the emergence of this agreement becomes a matter of course.
Over the past two years, the Palestinian conflict has escalated and the death toll has been shocking. The death toll in Gaza has exceeded 670,000, of which more than 20,000 are children. An average child dies of bombing or starvation every hour. This is not war, but a disaster. The United Nations has repeatedly warned of a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, but Israel continues to pursue military action, leading to increasing dissatisfaction with it in the international community. Protests rise here in London, Paris, New York, Istanbul, Sydney and other places. Pressure from the US and European public opinion has forced Israel to change its strategy. Even if Netanyahu is unwilling, he is clear: continue to fight, and the Allies will withdraw first.
In addition, Hamas is worse.In two years, most of Gaza’s infrastructure has been destroyed, assets almost broken, and millions of people have been homeless.Hamas has lost the material basis for sustaining a long-term confrontation.The conditions it put forward in negotiations – Israel’s permanent withdrawal, the international community’s guarantees – are actually a kind of self-assurance.If it survives, it “wins.”So Hamas’s signature is not trust, but survival.
Israel's signature is a forced rational choice. Although Netanyahu declared a "great day", he himself knew that there was no winner in this war. Although the Israeli army occupied Gaza, it failed to completely destroy Hamas. Internal politics has also been dragged into the mire. The far-right forces demand that the fight continue, but the mainstream Israeli people are exhausted from the war, especially the protests of the families of the hostages have intensified. The United States no longer supports it unconditionally. Trump's "20-point plan" actually leaves a decent step for Israel. Accepting the agreement can end in the name of "rescuing hostages" and "achieving peace"; If you refuse, you will have to face international condemnation alone. At this time, Netanyahu can only bite the bullet and nod.
As a result, the ceasefire is more of a political compromise than a real peace. There is still a strong opposition within Israel, and Hamas is clear that its political strength is gone. This mutual warning makes a ceasefire more like a temporary ceasefire. The tensions in the Middle East have not dissipated, but only continued in a form. The moment the ceasefire agreement was signed, it seemed as if the dust had settled, and a new corner of reality had been unfolded under the table.
In a lawsuit filed with the International Criminal Court on October 7, Italy’s Prime Minister Meloni was accused of conspiring to supply weapons to Israel, in fact because Italy did not have the “first time” to recognize the Palestinian state along with other European countries, so it became the target of international public opinion. From this point it can also be seen that although the ceasefire agreement was signed in Gaza, the parties did not complete the settlement for the “crimes” committed by Israel in it. In this case, once any party felt deceived, the conflict would break out again.