Text | Xiaoqi
Source: All statements in this article have reliable information sources.
Preliminary
Recently, the Russian War has made a new breakthrough!
Kupyansk was surrounded by Russian troops, and three brigades of the Ukrainian army were surrounded.
Now, Western aid to Ukraine can not catch up, the Ukrainian army has come to the point of destroying food and death on the line.
Will the Eastern War really change, can the Ukrainians survive?
The Russian army will not rush this time
The battle in Kupyansk did not start suddenly. Starting from November 2024, the Russian army will slowly send more troops here.
Unlike before, this Russian army did not undertake such a massive and profound assault.
Change the tactic of "more penetration, fire control, slow chewing."
The American Institute of War Studies updates the battlefield map every day. It can be seen from it that many people from the elite Russian Guards 1st Tank Group Army have arrived.
They did not charge blindly, but sent small groups of infantry to touch the weak points of the Ukrainian army. When they found gaps, they used artillery fire and aircraft to blow up, gradually reducing the Ukrainian army's defense circle.
Now the Russian army is pressed in three directions: east, south and west, the Oscillus River in the north is naturally a barrier, and it is difficult for the Ukrainian troops to move.
The most important thing is that the supply line has been cut off.
The M-26 highway is the lifeline of the Ukrainian army, but it is now bombed by Russian rocket launchers and drones.
The captured Ukrainian army lacked ammunition, fuel, even food and medicines.
Fighting will only weaken, and the pressure of the soldiers will increase.
Street fighting in the city is even worse. The battle has reached the center of the city, and houses are being fought every day in places such as Ukraine Street and Shiroki Lane.
Before that kind of tank cluster advanced no matter what, now are small divisions climbing in the ruins, in the drainage can hide people. drones fly full, as soon as exposed position, cruise bombs will come immediately.
There are front-line analysts who say that it is not an exaggeration to say that in Kupyansk, "it is possible to die in a single appearance."
However, the results of the Russian army cannot be fully believed.
For example, the Russian Defense Ministry said how much Ukrainian military equipment was destroyed, and sorry for the photos and videos taken by the open source intelligence platform Orix.
Oryx only recognizes the loss with visual evidence, and the data is less than that reported by the Russian military. When reading the battle report, it has to be compared between the two sides.
The Ukrainians are difficult.
Faced with the encirclement of the Russian army, the Ukrainian army is now in great trouble.
First of all, there are not enough people. Kupyansk is fighting fiercely, with casualties every day, and the supplementary soldiers can't keep up.
Equipment is also a problem. The "Haima" rockets given by the West in the past were quite powerful, but now the Russian army has a way to counter them.
Interfering with the GPS signal prevented the cannon from hitting, using anti-artillery radar to find the location of "Himas", and then bombarded with the "Iskander" missile.
The 14th Brigade of the Uzbek Army's Mobuk Brigade has "Zuzana-2" self-propelled artillery, but it cannot withstand the daily reconnaissance and bombing of the Russian army, nor can it function well.
What's even more troublesome is that the Russian army may be engaged in "encirclement and reinforcement."
Some have analyzed that the Russian forces intentionally did not fight around the three brigades, in order to lure the Ukrainian army to send other forces to rescue, such as the 143rd Brigade and the 144rd Brigade.
If the Ukrainian army really sends reinforcements, the Russian army may set up an ambush halfway and eat up the reinforcements.
The General Staff of Ukraine has not expressed its position yet. It is difficult to choose whether to risk saving the trapped troops or give up.
If you save it, you may lose more. If you don't save it, your morale will definitely be affected.
The aid from the West does not follow.
Germany says it is necessary to build more military trucks to transport goods, but trucks cannot be used as tanks and cannons.
Zelensky asks the West every day for more and more advanced weapons, especially long-range missiles and air defense systems.
Western military production capacity cannot keep up with, and it will take time for weapons to be transported to Ukraine.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies said that the weapons given by the West have not yet been consumed by the Ukrainian army so quickly, and the battle has been harder.
This battle is not just about seizing cities.
The battle of Kupyansk is not just as simple as fighting for a city.
This is the transportation hub in the east of Kharkiv Oblast.
If the Russian army really takes it down, it can threaten Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, to the west, and echo the Russian army in Donetsk Oblast to the south.
It may even pinch the Ukrainian army's core defensive area in Donbas. By then, the situation on the entire eastern front will change.
It can also be seen from this battle that the Russian war is different now.
Both sides are difficult to suddenly defeat each other, becoming consumption war, position warfare. drones and cruise missiles have become the standard, electronic warfare is also becoming more and more important.
Whoever can interfere with the other party's signal has the advantage.
There is also the supply line, which is more important than how many soldiers there are on the front, the line is broken, and the troops that can fight can not withstand.
The most pitiful ones are the common people.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said that civilians in Kupyansk and surrounding areas are in particularly danger. There are endless shelling and air strikes, and there is no safe way to evacuate.
Lack of food, water, medicine and medical care.
The war burned, and the life of ordinary people was ruined.
As for whether or not peace will be negotiated later, the outcome of this battle is crucial.
The International Crisis Group said that if the battlefield is won, the waist will be hard when negotiating.
If the Russians win, they may have tougher conditions.
If the Ukrainian army can hold or even break the siege, morale will increase and gain more benefits during negotiations.
But no matter what, there is still a long way to go before we can resolve it peacefully.
conclusion
Kupyansk has a rough destiny, and now it has become the core of the fight between Russia and Ukraine.
The battle here is not only about who has more soldiers and whose guns are fierce, but also about logistics and tactics, and who can withstand it.
Whichever wins last, the battle will have an impact on the winter of 2025 and even the longer Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The name Kupyansk has long been engraved into the history of this war by artillery fire and blood!
Source of information
Russian Satellite News Agency 202520: 28, 23 September Russian Ministry of Defense: The Russian army has formed a semi-encirclement situation against large Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk
Russian Satellite News Agency 2025-10-05 13:05 The Ukrainian army lost a "Haimas" rocket launcher system near Zhongbulluk, Kharkiv Oblast
Observer.com 2023-05-07 09:22 The Russian army was revealed to have successfully interfered with the US aid to Ukraine "Haimas", preventing it from hitting its target