Trump ignored Putin's warning to sell Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, and Putin announced an important achievement. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, Ukrainian drones hit the hinterland of Asia. This conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has lasted for more than three years, seems to be approaching a certain "ending". So, what impact will Trump's decision have on this conflict? And what does Ukraine's entry into Asia indicate?
On October 6, local time, Trump rarely relented when facing reporters at the White House, saying that he had "made some decision" on providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. This sentence sounded vague, but it caused a stir. You know, the "Tomahawk" missile has a range of up to 2500 kilometers. If it falls into the hands of Ukraine, almost the entire western Russia will be within strike range. Therefore, Putin immediately issued a warning that if the United States really provides "Tomahawk" missiles, it will "destroy the newly emerging dawn in Russia-US relations."
But Trump’s calculation is probably far beyond the military level. The outside world generally believes that there is a strong political calculation behind it. Because there are only a few days left from the Nobel Peace Prize disclosure, Trump is eager to make a sense of presence on the global stage, especially on the Russian-Ukrainian issue. He knows that if he wants the European-led jury to change his opinion, he must take substantial action on the Ukrainian issue. Therefore, this “Tax deal” is more like a political betting, betting on the Nobel Peace Prize and also on the reputation of the United States.
However, for Putin, all this heralds a more intense confrontation. Just after Trump's statement, on the 7th local time, Putin held a military meeting in Moscow, announcing that the Russian army "has occupied nearly 5,000 square kilometers of land in Ukraine this year" and claiming that "the strategic initiative is completely in the hands of Russia". Such a statement is obviously an internal propaganda, intended to stabilize the morale of the army and public opinion. But judging from the battlefield situation, Russia's results are more like a kind of self-encouragement. The reason is that Ukraine's current offensive is approaching Russia's depth in a way that is hard to ignore.
On the evening of October 6 local time, an assault left the Kremlin Palace completely insomniac. Ukrainian drones successfully attacked the Antipynski refinery in Okymin, Russia, which is east of the Ural Mountains, the alleged real Asian continent. More than 2,100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, which means that Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities, for the first time, broke the Eurasian dividing line. Although the Russian side claims to have "intercepted and no losses", satellite images showed that the refinery's core equipment was severely damaged, and production was completely interrupted.
According to reports, this is the first time that Ukrainian drones have “busted into Asia” and may be a significant moment for the change in the nature of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In just six days, Ukraine has launched five consecutive round of deep-seated strikes, destroying or seriously harming five major Russian refineries, these refineries have a cumulative annual capacity of more than 50 million tons, accounting for half of the national oil refining capacity. Russia’s energy lifeline is being systematically weakened. Moreover, Moscow is concerned that Ukraine is forming a new model of operation, dragging the Russian army on the frontline, deep disrupting supplies, and gradually “killing” its opponents.
This is also an important reason Putin emphasized in his speech “to ensure the safety of energy facilities” and ordered military-industrial enterprises to “complete their arms production tasks ahead of time.” But the problem is that Russia’s missile launches have dropped significantly. In September, the Russian military launched only more than a dozen missiles, less than a quarter of August, and the long-range bombers were more forced to move to the Far East in order to prevent further Ukrainian drones from being attacked. For Russia, this is not only tactical passivity, but also a waste of strategic resources.
And under the push of Trump, the image of the United States is re-interfering in the battle scene. Even if the “Tax” missile is in the indirect way of “EU buying, Ukraine receiving” flowing into the battlefield, in essence also means that NATO’s one foot has entered the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. Trump himself may not care about the fate of Ukraine, but he is deeply aware of the “art of transaction”, when Ukraine’s victory dawns, he has to do is to harvest fruit. In his view, providing the “Tax” missile to Ukraine can win Europe’s good feelings, and can make the military-industrial complex a big profit, is a lot.
Taken together, the pattern of this war is reversing. Russia tried to hold the occupied areas, while Ukraine pushed the front line into the hinterland of the other side. Trump wanted to exchange missiles for personal gain. The three parties have their own minds, but they are all tied up by the same fact that the war is getting out of their control. When Ukrainian drones cross the Ural Mountains and when the fire of Russian refineries reflects the night sky of Asia, this will no longer be a single military incident, but also a sign that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered a new stage.