The ASEAN-China-Japan-Korea Office for Macroeconomic Research released the ASEAN-China-Japan-Korea Financial Stability Report 2025 and the October Update of the Regional Economic Outlook on October 9, pointing out that in the context of rising global trade and geopolitical uncertainty, ASEAN and China-Japan-Korea still maintain stable growth, showing strong resilience.

The report predicts,The average economic growth rate of the ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea regions will reach 4.1% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026The office said that the increase reflected excellent economic performance in the first half of the year and exportable momentum above expectations.

The report believes,Despite external challenges, ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea economies still have sufficient policy space and sound fundamentals to withstand risks.The report points out that with a robust banking system, deeper financial markets, abundant foreign exchange reserves and flexible policy portfolios, economies are able to establish key buffers. Inflation in most countries is moderate and expected to be stable, allowing central banks to maintain relaxed monetary policies to support growth. At the same time, macro-prudent policies and foreign exchange and capital flow management tools can further strengthen financial stability and mitigate external shocks.

Export-oriented enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on the U.S. market, may face profit pressure in changing trade patterns.U.S. tariffs increaseorderedContinued inflation poses a challenge to the Fed¡¯s monetary policy and could trigger a flood effect.Furthermore, rising uncertainty about the US dollar¡¯s shelter could lead to further fragmentation of the global financial system.