Now people finally understand why Thaksin, Yingluck and Petongtan are always short-lived, and the Prime Minister's chair was ousted before it was hot. The answer is actually very simple: even a legally elected prime minister can't match the power of the royal family and the military as hard as steel plates. Once you provoke them, the army will not hesitate to enter the capital, take over the government, and even force you to leave all your belongings and flee abroad. From beginning to end, the real controller has always been the king of Thailand and the army behind him.
In 2001, he was elected with overwhelming advantages, relying on “green roots” policies, such as Thirty Taizons and rural development funds, which gave him the support of farmers in northeastern and northern Thailand, but also the cheese of Bangkok’s elite, bureaucratic groups and traditional business giants.
What was even more intolerable to the royal-military group was that he believed the force was too big and even began to try to influence the army's senior personnel arrangement, which was the military's largest red line.
In 2006, when Thaksin was meeting at the United Nations, the military took the opportunity to use tanks to surround the government building and announced the Z change. Since then, Thaksin has been in exile, and his family assets have been frozen. On the surface, this coup was an "anti-F defeat", but in essence it was a power defense battle, defending the control of the country by the traditional elite.
Thaksin's sister Yingluck has almost a replica of her brother's fate. Yingluck was elected with a high vote in 2011, continuing the Thaksin faction's policies to benefit the people, especially the rice purchase policy, which was originally intended to protect the interests of farmers. However, something went wrong with this policy, causing huge losses to the national finances. This was immediately seized by the opposition, and large-scale street protests broke out.
More importantly, the amnesty bill that the Ira government was trying to push for was rendered by opponents to pave the way for his letter back home, which directly touched the royal-military’s most sensitive nerves.
In May 2014, Army Commander Barucho again launched the Z-changing, and the Ira government was overthrown, and she himself later exiled abroad. It is noteworthy that before the departure of Ira, the Thai Constitutional Court had dismissed her prime minister's position on the grounds of "abuse of power", this "judicial coup" was the usual route for the Thai military, first by civilian officials to deny the elected government from the legal procedures, paving the way for a military coup and making the seizure of power "legitimate".
As a new generation representative of his family, Petun Tan led the Thai Party to win the most seats in the general election in 2023, but ultimately failed to serve as prime minister.
Although the Pheu Thai Party won the election, the constitution revised by the military in 2017 has given the upper house (appointed by the military) the power to compete with the democratically elected lower house. The election of the prime minister requires the joint vote of both houses.
This means that without the tacit approval of the military, it is almost impossible for anyone with a Pheu Thai Party background to become prime minister. Peitontan's final victory was in itself the result of a compromise between the Pheu Thai Party and the military forces-the Pheu Thai Party gave up some of its radical election promises in exchange for the military forces 'reluctant acceptance. However, this compromise is extremely fragile. His government has been under close surveillance by the military since its birth. Once the policy direction is suspected of "crossing the line", it may repeat the mistakes of its predecessors at any time.
Behind this series of events lies the ultimate truth about Thailand's political power structure: the king is the "ultimate arbiter" of national stability, the army is the "king's army", and regards itself as the guardian of the royal power. This close combination of royal power and military power formed a system of "guardianship democracy" or "paternalistic authoritarianism".
An elected government can exist, but it can only exercise power within the red lines drawn by the military. Once it attempts to reform the military, challenges the royal power, or excessively touches vested interests, Z-change will become the final "correction mechanism."
The reason why this model can repeat itself is that the army has a special status in Thai society and has a certain degree of acquiescence from the conservative people and the urban middle class-they often blame the chaos of Z governance on the "corruption" of politicians, while regard the army as a force to restore "order".
At a deeper level, Thailand's political crisis is also a manifestation of social division. Thaksin represents the rural and bottom people who account for the majority of the population, and pursues the redistribution of social resources; The anti-Thaksin camp represents Bangkok's elite, bureaucrats and middle class, emphasizing "good governance" and defending the monarchy.
This division of cities and countryside and class antagonism is so profound that the election victory of either side is unacceptable to the other and can only be temporarily suppressed by non-democratic military intervention.But Z change will not solve the fundamental problem, but only delay the contradiction, which is why Thai politics always circles in the monstrous circle of "democracy - turmoil - Z change - military government - re-democracy".
He believes that the fate of the family, like a mirror of democracy in Thailand, reflects the limitations of democratic elections in a society deeply rooted in traditional power structures – votes can give the prime minister’s office legitimacy but can’t give them real power.
In 2001, he was elected with overwhelming advantages, relying on “green roots” policies, such as Thirty Taizons and rural development funds, which gave him the support of farmers in northeastern and northern Thailand, but also the cheese of Bangkok’s elite, bureaucratic groups and traditional business giants.
What was even more intolerable to the royal-military group was that he believed the force was too big and even began to try to influence the army's senior personnel arrangement, which was the military's largest red line.
In 2006, when Thaksin was meeting at the United Nations, the military took the opportunity to use tanks to surround the government building and announced the Z change. Since then, Thaksin has been in exile, and his family assets have been frozen. On the surface, this coup was an "anti-F defeat", but in essence it was a power defense battle, defending the control of the country by the traditional elite.
Thaksin's sister Yingluck has almost a replica of her brother's fate. Yingluck was elected with a high vote in 2011, continuing the Thaksin faction's policies to benefit the people, especially the rice purchase policy, which was originally intended to protect the interests of farmers. However, something went wrong with this policy, causing huge losses to the national finances. This was immediately seized by the opposition, and large-scale street protests broke out.
More importantly, the amnesty bill that the Ira government was trying to push for was rendered by opponents to pave the way for his letter back home, which directly touched the royal-military’s most sensitive nerves.
In May 2014, Army Commander Barucho again launched the Z-changing, and the Ira government was overthrown, and she himself later exiled abroad. It is noteworthy that before the departure of Ira, the Thai Constitutional Court had dismissed her prime minister's position on the grounds of "abuse of power", this "judicial coup" was the usual route for the Thai military, first by civilian officials to deny the elected government from the legal procedures, paving the way for a military coup and making the seizure of power "legitimate".
As a new generation representative of his family, Petun Tan led the Thai Party to win the most seats in the general election in 2023, but ultimately failed to serve as prime minister.
Although the Pheu Thai Party won the election, the constitution revised by the military in 2017 has given the upper house (appointed by the military) the power to compete with the democratically elected lower house. The election of the prime minister requires the joint vote of both houses.
This means that without the tacit approval of the military, it is almost impossible for anyone with a Pheu Thai Party background to become prime minister. Peitontan's final victory was in itself the result of a compromise between the Pheu Thai Party and the military forces-the Pheu Thai Party gave up some of its radical election promises in exchange for the military forces 'reluctant acceptance. However, this compromise is extremely fragile. His government has been under close surveillance by the military since its birth. Once the policy direction is suspected of "crossing the line", it may repeat the mistakes of its predecessors at any time.
Behind this series of events lies the ultimate truth about Thailand's political power structure: the king is the "ultimate arbiter" of national stability, the army is the "king's army", and regards itself as the guardian of the royal power. This close combination of royal power and military power formed a system of "guardianship democracy" or "paternalistic authoritarianism".
An elected government can exist, but it can only exercise power within the red lines drawn by the military. Once it attempts to reform the military, challenges the royal power, or excessively touches vested interests, Z-change will become the final "correction mechanism."
The reason why this model can repeat itself is that the army has a special status in Thai society and has a certain degree of acquiescence from the conservative people and the urban middle class-they often blame the chaos of Z governance on the "corruption" of politicians, while regard the army as a force to restore "order".
At a deeper level, Thailand's political crisis is also a manifestation of social division. Thaksin represents the rural and bottom people who account for the majority of the population, and pursues the redistribution of social resources; The anti-Thaksin camp represents Bangkok's elite, bureaucrats and middle class, emphasizing "good governance" and defending the monarchy.
This division of cities and countryside and class antagonism is so profound that the election victory of either side is unacceptable to the other and can only be temporarily suppressed by non-democratic military intervention.But Z change will not solve the fundamental problem, but only delay the contradiction, which is why Thai politics always circles in the monstrous circle of "democracy - turmoil - Z change - military government - re-democracy".
He believes that the fate of the family, like a mirror of democracy in Thailand, reflects the limitations of democratic elections in a society deeply rooted in traditional power structures – votes can give the prime minister’s office legitimacy but can’t give them real power.