The National Day holiday just ended, and Trump came to good news early in the morning. He wrote on his social platform “Real Social” that Israel and Hamas had signed the first phase “20 calls” agreement proposed by the White House. This means that the genocide in Gaza really has a chance to stop?
The "20 Points Plan" proposed by the White House is a ceasefire model, which, although most of the terms are in line with international common law and multilateral common demands, may not meet the demands of the parties.
For example, Hamas is not allowed to join the Palestinian ruling coalition, Israel is not allowed to annex Gaza in any form, etc. Although these clauses are binding in name, they seriously undermine the demands of both parties in essence. Either we continue to call, or we find a way to avoid it.
Although the "20 Point Plan" does not appear to mention the implementation of the "Two-Country Plan", the suspension of genocide is a good thing.
Moreover, as the Nobel Peace Prize nomination is getting closer and closer, Trump urgently needs something to do to prove his achievement.
Israeli judicial reforms in 2023 set Netanyahu on fire, in the background of which Netanyahu has even actively catalysed the current Israeli conflict to some extent.
The more persistent the Israeli military struggle, the larger the scope of the struggle, and even directly triggering a positive conflict between the Iranians, even bombing the capital of Qatar, is largely for Netanyahu's personal political foundation.
Now, Netanyahu's position as prime minister is unstable and relies heavily on several far-right ministers such as Motrih and Ben-Gwier. Their demands are very simple and active Hamas must be completely eliminated. This means that the Israeli army must not only further deepen the genocide in Gaza, but also eliminate Hamas active in other regions, including Qatar.
However, this will undoubtedly touch the interests of the United States in the Middle East. In a dilemma, whichever one Netanyahu chooses will be a dead end. After the White House proposed the "20-point plan", Netanyahu's room for struggle became narrower and narrower. Now it seems that Trump has finally made the final choice.
First, in terms of Trump’s personal interests, US-Israel relations would not be dissolved because of Netanyahu, but would be interrupted.Instead, a leader who serves Israel’s national interests more sensibly would like Trump more.
Second, Netanyahu's departure will end the task of the United States not to speak blindly, and the contradictions between the United States and the Middle East Arab countries, and the European leftist countries, will be solved in line with the diplomatic interests of the United States.
Now it is possible that the Israeli far-right government will really stumble, and put Netanyahu in a trap, and will probably end this tragedy.
Of course, it is not ruled out that Netanyahu will continue to use dangerous tactics and continue to wage war against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, the Julani regime in Lebanon, Syria and even Iran. But can these people satisfy the appetite of the extreme right?
If the Gaza issue comes to an end for the time being, it will have a far-reaching impact on the world. This genocide in modern society has left the entire Western society in an extreme division, with the division of left and right, Latin America, Africa and American hegemony. The rift between.
If Netanyahu gets the corresponding punishment, it can relatively mitigate the contradiction, while remaining out of law is undoubtedly a blow to face for all Western politicians who speak out about values. Therefore, Western politicians are more concerned than anyone else about Netanyahu’s outcome.
The end of the farce itself becomes the next big drama.