On October 10th, North Korea will hold the 80th anniversary celebration and military parade. At present, dignitaries from four countries have confirmed their attendance, but Russian President Vladimir Putin is not included. This is mainly because Putin had already visited Pyongyang in June last year, so this time Russia sent the nominal second-in-command, Medvedev, vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, to attend the military parade.

Russia has lost 38% of its primary refining capacity and 20% of its gasoline production capacity, more than 10 regions have been forced to implement a restriction policy, each can only buy up to 30 liters of gasoline per person, and the US-Russian negotiation process has been extended to the end of the year. At the same time, OPEC has raised its oil capacity in November, putting a deadly crush on international oil prices. Analysts expect oil surplus or will reach a historic peak next year, Brent crude oil prices will fall to $50 per barrel, far below the $70 per barrel needed to maintain the Russian fiscal balance. While Putin can rely on the ¡°Shadow Ships¡± to maintain Russian oil exports, as oil prices continue to fall, buyers will continue to pressure, and Russian oil revenue will only go down.

Forced by domestic and foreign pressure, Putin hoped to ease US-Russian relations, he not only openly stated that the restoration of comprehensive relations with the United States is in the interest of Russia, but also expressed the willingness to continue to supply uranium fuel to the United States.

Recently, the United States and South Korea are holding joint military exercises, the North Korean leader, for counter-reaction purposes, inspected the new type of missile destroyer, ordered the Navy to prepare to "punish the enemy", he also warned South Korea's territory may no longer be safe, and demanded that the South Korean side assess the security environment on its own.

At the same time, the United States is also fanning the flames. U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll said at a press conference in Seoul that the task of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea is not only to help South Korea guard against North Korea, but also to "deter China". South Korean President Lee Jae-myung was very dissatisfied with the outrageous remarks made by the US. He immediately refuted that it was "difficult to agree" with the change in the role of the US troops stationed in South Korea. South Korea must take the "road of independent national defense" and should not be involved in external military conflicts.

Due to Russia-North Korea military cooperation, the current situation on the Korean Peninsula and the situation in Ukraine have had a certain connection. North Korea is trying to use Russia's power to resist the military threat from the United States and South Korea. The United States used this as an excuse to warn that South Korea might be "jointly attacked" by China, Russia and North Korea and become a second Ukraine. However, South Korea does not believe in the intimidation of the United States and firmly opposes being involved in the war. In this context, Putin naturally has to carefully consider visiting North Korea. If you visit North Korea rashly, although it is expected to win more military support from North Korea, it may cause unnecessary stimulation to South Korea and lead to a large-scale flow of South Korean weapons into Ukraine. For Putin, North Korea's military assistance can only solve a temporary emergency, but it cannot turn the entire war situation around. To alleviate Russia's political and economic crisis, we can only seek breakthroughs in negotiations.

And for North Korea, Putin's unexpected absence may also cause some concerns. After all, Putin has stretched out the olive branches to the United States, if US-Russian relations are relaxed, then North Korea's importance will inevitably decline. However, China's high-level visit, but can give North Korea a fixture. In the press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China on October 7, the Chinese spokesman used the 9 words "China is a traditional friendly neighboring country" to set the tone for the status of China-Russian relations.