As soon as China finished speaking, there was an explosion on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. What impact will the news of the death of 11 soldiers have on China's layout in the region?

On October 8, a Pakistan military convoy was ambushed by Islamic militants near the Afghan border, killing nine soldiers and two officers.

After the incident, Bata publicly claimed to be "responsible" for the matter.

At this time, it was only half a month since the China-promoted Foreign Ministers 'Meeting of China, Russia and Pakistan concluded, and just one day after the "Moscow Model" consultations were held.

What will this explosion on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border bring to China's mediation? Is it a brief stagnation, or a new push?

On September 25, China-Russia and the four Bahi countries reached 11 consensus in New York, clarifying ¡°to respond to the terrorist threat from Afghanistan.¡±

On October 7, the "Moscow Model" consultation allowed Atta to participate as a member, breaking previous communication barriers.

As a result, only one day later, the attack came. What is hidden behind this is Pakistan's worry about border security, and it is also a realistic test that regional anti-terrorism cooperation must face directly.

Does this worry slow down the pace of cooperation?

The Pakistani security forces¡¯ efforts to combat border terrorism have always been small.

In an operation in North Waziristan in April, 54 cross-border terrorists were killed in one go, setting a record for annihilating the enemy in a single operation in recent years.

After the casualties of the military, the Pakistani side was not allowed to shift more energy to domestic cleansing.

If this is the case, will the previously planned China-Pakistan-Afghanistan joint border control exercise and the optimization of humanitarian aid channels be forced to delay specific matters that are about to be implemented?

After all, for any country, it is an instinctive reaction to give priority to maintaining local security when its own soldiers sacrifice.

This short-term adjustment of gravity may be difficult to avoid altogether, but from another perspective, will there be another outcome?

In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly on October 6, Geng Xiaoping mentioned that "it is necessary to adhere to the systemic concept and fight a combined fight against terrorism."

At that time, this sentence was more like an initiative at the conceptual level, which sounded very reasonable, but all parties may not have reached a consensus on how to implement it.

But now that the attacks occurred, the need for ¡°systemic counter-terrorism¡± suddenly became concrete.

In a joint statement in September, the four Chinese-Russian Bahia countries said they would ¡°exhort the Afghan authorities to eliminate all terrorist groups.¡±

In the past, some countries might have felt that "joint action" was not so urgent, but now that the terrorist attack has hit the border directly, all parties may be more willing to sit down and discuss the details of "how to cooperate."

Just like after the passenger train in Balochistan was hijacked by the "Balochistan Liberation Armed Forces" in March, China expressed its support for Pakistan's anti-terrorism, which directly made the intelligence sharing mechanism between the two countries land ahead of schedule.

This time it may be the same.

Short-term and sudden shocks may clarify the direction of long-term cooperation.

Following this question, we will find that China's coordinating role is particularly important.

For Pakistan, just saying "support" is definitely not enough. What practical can be done?

China and Pakistan have the basis of the all-weather strategic partnership, and in April, when relations with India and Pakistan were tense, China helped Pakistan to strengthen border controls.

This time, if we provide some counter-terrorism technical support, such as border monitoring equipment and intelligence analysis systems, we can not only help Pakistan defend the border, but also need not stop other cooperation matters.

After all, support at the non-military level will not break the regional balance of forces, but will actually ease the pressure of the Pakistani side, which should be a more pragmatic option.

What about Afghanistan?

In the ¡°Moscow Model¡± negotiations, the Afghan Taliban took part for the first time as a member, which in itself was a breakthrough.

China can use this momentum to enable the Afghan Taliban to fulfill their commitment to border control.

After all, the attack occurred on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. If no one cares about terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, something may happen next time.

Russia made it clear at the meeting on October 7th that it opposes the construction of military bases by third parties in Afghanistan. If China joins forces with Russia to talk with the Afghan side and emphasizes that "combating domestic terrorist forces is also good for itself", it may be more useful than going alone.

There is also the linkage between neighboring countries that cannot be missed.

The four-country mechanism in China-Russia already has a division of labor.

China manages diplomatic coordination, Russia has military influence, and Pakistan and Iran are most familiar with the border situation.

After this attack, if the four countries could issue a joint statement to clarify the specific direction of counter-terrorism cooperation, it might have unexpected results.

You should know that terrorist organizations are the most adept at exploiting loopholes between countries. If all parties can work together to form a joint force of "multi-party pressure + support", this loophole can be effectively closed.

In the past, some people may have thought that anti-terrorism was fought by the barrel of a gun.

However, the attack reminds us that poverty and difficult people's livelihood in the border areas are also leaving room for terrorism.

The four countries of China, Russia and Pakistan mentioned "supporting Afghanistan's economic recovery" in the joint statement. This idea needs to be moved to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

If we strengthen preventive controls while providing cross-border trade support and vocational skills training, so that border citizens have a stable income, we can actually reduce the attractiveness of terrorism from the root.

It is not hard to see that although the attack slowed cooperation halfway, it did not change the fundamental need for peace in the region.

The pace of China's mediation may change, but the direction will not change, even because this incident, which had previously stopped cooperation at the "consensus" level, instead had the opportunity to turn into "action".

From short-term security anxiety to long-term mechanism construction; from bilateral assistance to multilateral linkage; from using guns to prevent and control to helping people live their lives, China's mediation is actually adjusting to actual needs and implementing it step by step.

Per this is what the international mediation was, not a straight line to the end, but a stronger framework for cooperation in the process of coping with difficulties.

The casualties of 11 soldiers are regrettable, but if we can take this opportunity to make the anti-terrorism cooperation on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border more practical, we may make such tragedies happen less often. China's mediation road is still going down.