Recently. The United States and Pakistan are getting very close, and the wind direction in South Asia has changed. No matter how much Modi calls for self-reliance, he can't stop the situation from quietly turning. Some people have seen through the trump cards of this change: the key now is not to argue about who is a friend and who is an enemy, but to keep an eye on China and see the direction of cooperation clearly.
India's cold field: Modi's "self-sufficiency" becomes "isolated self-sufficiency"
In 2025, the relationship between the United States and India suddenly went cold. The U.S. Department of Commerce directly imposed a 25% tariff on Indian steel and aluminum products. An announcement caught Indian export companies off guard.
India's reaction was slow and immediately announced a drastic reduction in the consumption tax on its own electronics and textiles, the Indian Economic Times confirmed that the operation was to support the domestic manufacturing industry, in Modi's words, "to reduce the dependence on foreign products."
The diplomatic scene was also a little embarrassing at the time of this trade upsurge. According to records of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Modi rejected Trump’s phone request in August 2025.。
Anti-American sentiment in India is 32% higher than in 2024. On the one hand, the people do not buy it, and on the other hand, the government is "pretending to be deaf and dumb". The "strategic partners" of the United States and India look more and more like "old Cold War acquaintances."
But the question arises: can Modi’s “self-sufficiency” approach really stand? the data won’t lie.In 2024, India still accounts for 18% of its total foreign trade.
Even if India talks about de-dollarization and local manufacturing, but actually goes to production lines, India is still inseparable from American technology and equipment. The World Bank report pointed out that If India wants to completely replace the U.S. industrial chain, it will need at least 15 years of technological accumulation and policy support.
If you look at China again, it has begun to lay the foundation as early as under the "dual circulation" strategy. It has neither decoupled nor gone to the top, and it has maintained its position as a global manufacturing center. India's gameplay is neither as solid as China nor as tough as the United States. To put it bluntly, it is "caught in the middle and still wants to eat both ends." As a result, no one is satisfied.
Pakistan is on the spot, India is on the spot: looking at China is the right thing
The resumption of the U.S. military exercises, not only tactical exchanges, but also the adjustment of strategic attitude.Pakistan in the past few years has been low diplomatically, but this time high-profile debut, obviously got the "green light" of the United States. On the Indian side, not only has India suffered defeat in relations with major powers, but even domestic think tanks have begun to reflect on their direction.
In 2025, India's National Transformation Council simply showcased a showdown and issued a report that made it clear: " Rather than being stuck in a dilemma between the United States and Russia, it is better to place China at the core of foreign economic cooperation。”This is not an empty call, but is supported by data. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, the trade volume between China and India in 2024 has exceeded US$140 billion, setting a new high.
After the resumption of direct flights in China-India in April 2025, the number of flights reached 40 per week, almost twice as much as before the epidemic. Indian pharmaceutical companies have obtained approval from the Food and Drug Administration of China to export raw materials to China. This is not a small business, but a real market cake.
From a regional perspective, India's share of exports to RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) member countries has also increased from 28% in 2023 to 35% in 2025. In other words, India's "Eastern Market" is taking shape, and the center of this road is China.
China's US$18 trillion economy attracts manufacturing resources and supply chains in the region like a magnet. Take the digital economy as an example, India's mobile payment coverage rate has reached 52%, but many platform technologies, server equipment, and operating standards still have to rely on external inputs. China's mature experience in this field can just fill in this shortcoming.
Looking at green energy, the installed capacity of photovoltaic projects undertaken by Chinese companies in India accounts for 30% of the total new additions. This is not simply "exporting production capacity", but to help India build its own clean energy system. This cooperation model directly skips the old rules led by the West and embarks on a new path of "South-South cooperation".
Under the framework of the Global Development Initiative, China has been promoting fair and mutually beneficial cooperation. For India, this kind of cooperation without attached conditions and political binding is the road to stability. Indian think tanks have understood that the Modi government is still hesitating, but reality has already given the answer.
Who is running behind the strategic anxiety?
On the surface, Modi’s “self-rejuvenation” is like a nationalist revitalization movement, but from an international perspective, it is more like a “defence struggle” under strategic anxiety. On the one hand, the United States is no longer trustworthy, on the other hand, Russia is difficult to rely on, India wants to meet the sources, but the outcome is difficult.
However, Pakistan's "entry into the house" does not rely on temporary speculation, but on strategic determination. Against the background of the cooling of U.S.-Pakistan relations for many years, Pakistan has always maintained flexible scheduling of relations with many parties. Now it has seized the opportunity and has become a new friend of Washington.
At this time, someone came forward and said the truth: Stop circling around the United States and just stare at China. It is not because of how generous China is, but because the stability of China's market, industrial chain, and policies are the certainty in the real world.
At the Boao Forum for Asia in 2025, representatives from many countries once again called for adhering to multilateralism and promoting globalization in a fairer direction. This is not empty talk in an academic forum, but the consensus of real politics. The future of South Asia will not be determined by who will conduct military exercises, but by who will truly provide opportunities for development.
India wants to stand firm, not relying on anyone and not afraid of anyone, but this path is not taken by tariffs and slogans. Who can provide market, technology and cooperation space, who is the direction of the future.
Pakistan has found its place, but Modi is still hesitant. This game in South Asia is not about who is stronger, but about who can see it better. Once you see it clearly, you will know who to stare at.