In the early morning of October 7, 2023, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip, killing about 1,200 people on the same day, and the Israeli army subsequently launched a counterattack. As of now, the two-year conflict has killed more than 6,7 million Palestinians in Gaza, and the United Nations has described Israel’s actions as “genocide.”
A new round of Hamas-Israel ceasefire negotiations in Egypt appears to have progressed after U.S. President Donald Trump put forward a “20-point plan” aimed at ending the conflict. However, even if the two sides a ceasefire under Trump’s push, a long-term ceasefire would still be a big question. But even a brief peace and tranquility would be precious for Gaza and its people, which have suffered unprecedented humanitarian disasters and genocide over the past two years.
On September 8, a high-rise building in Gaza City raised heavy smoke after an airstrike by the Israeli army, and people fled.
Neither side has won, only the civilians are losers.
Before the conflict broke out, about 2.3 million people lived in the Gaza Strip, which covers a total area of about 365 square kilometers. In two years, in addition to 67,000 deaths, more than 169,000 people have been injured. The United Nations assesses that at least 92% of homes in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed in the conflict. Israel revealed that Hamas and Palestinian factions are currently detaining 48 Israelis, 20 of whom are still alive.
The destruction of Hamas, the rescue of detainees and the de-militarization of the Gaza Strip were the three main targets of Israel’s military operations at the outbreak of the conflict.Two years later, Hamas was severely wounded but not destroyed; the families of detainees were still waiting for them to return home; and the Gaza Armed Forces continued to attack the Israeli army.
Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, told a reporter from the Beijing Daily client that Israel relied on its absolute military superiority to subversively destroy the entire territory of Gaza. Hamas suffered heavy losses. Israel's military deterrence and dominant position in the entire region have been strengthened. However, Israel did not effectively achieve the goals of military operations. It only changed the regional balance of power through military pressure and failed to solve the actual security challenges.
Among the senior leaders of Hamas who served at the outbreak of the conflict, Khalil Ha'a is one who is still alive. After surviving the Israeli attack on Qatar on 9 September, he was leading a Hamas delegation in Egypt to negotiate with Israel. Ha'a's remarks in Egypt may represent a shift in Hamas' position two years after the conflict. He said Hamas' negotiations aim to end the conflict immediately and reach an exchange agreement.
“In addition to military superiority and moral condemnation, Israel won almost nothing, and Hamas initially launched the attack in response to Israel’s expansion and put the Palestinian issue back on the international agenda, but instead suffered the suffering of its own people.” – Romanian Institute for Political and Economic Studies in the Middle East, Frasvius Kaba-Maria, said Gaza had a pre-war infrastructure and its destruction now meets the purpose of Israel’s long-standing territorial expansion.
A report released by a United Nations agency in August showed that more than 500,000 people in Gaza were falling into famine. By the end of September, more than 640,000 people in Gaza will be in the most severe "disaster" phase of food security, and 1.14 million will be in the next "emergency" phase. This is the first time that famine has been officially confirmed in the Middle East.
During the recent United Nations General Assembly, Western countries such as Britain, France and Australia officially recognized the State of Palestine. In response to the Israeli naval interception in the open sea in early October of the “global firm fleet”, hundreds of thousands of people from many European countries such as Italy, Spain and protests.
Wang Zhen, deputy director of the Institute of International Studies of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that the two-year conflict has once again highlighted the Palestinian issue in the international community, and more and more countries have recognized the Palestinian state, but it may still not be able to effectively promote the Palestinian state. In particular, the United States has not clearly shown its willingness to continue to support the Palestinian state. There is still a long way to go to establish a Palestinian state in the future, and the prospects are hardly optimistic.
On September 18, people evacuated south on the coastal road west of Gaza City.
Will negotiations be “full of optimism” and peace come?
On September 29, Trump announced after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in the White House that Netanyahu had accepted his “20-point plan.” On October 3, Hamas announced that it was in principle agreed to release all Israeli detainees under the “20-point plan” and return the remains of those who had died. Trump then asked Israel to stop bombing Gaza immediately. The next day, Israel said it was ready to “immediately implement” the first phase of the ceasefire plan.
Hamas and Israel began a new round of talks on October 6 in Egypt’s Sham Sheik, where both sides recognized the general principles of Trump’s “20-point plan” for a ceasefire, the release of detainees, and allowing aid materials to enter the Gaza Strip.
He told the Beijing Daily client reporter that at the moment, the “20-point plan” is likely to contribute to a ceasefire for both sides. Hamas suffered serious injuries, with fewer and fewer codes in hand; Israel and Netanyahu faced with tremendous worldwide pressure, especially U.S. pressure, and had to consider a ceasefire. Without U.S. support, Israeli military operations would be difficult to continue. The meaning of continuing to fight down for Israel is increasingly limited, in addition to causing a large number of civilian deaths, military operations can neither surrender Hamas nor rescue the detainees, at most only show political will.
"There is a major weakness in Trump's efforts: an attempt to build mutual trust amid a dynamic of mutual distrust. Netanyahu called the second phase on withdrawal and disarmament'still to be negotiated 'to maintain Israeli influence for as long as possible." Netanyahu's insistence that Israel will act "in accordance with the principles they put forward that are consistent with President Trump's vision" shows that Israel and the United States are not entirely on the same page on the ceasefire, Kabbah-Maria said. Since Trump took office again, there have been attempts to push for a ceasefire, but Israel has continued to conduct military operations again and again.
A media adviser to senior Hamas member Tahir Nunu said on October 8 that Kazakhstan and Israel had exchanged lists of people to be released and that all parties to the negotiations were "full of optimism." The talks focus on ending the war, withdrawing Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and implementing mechanisms for personnel exchanges.
"On the surface, Hamas and Israel responded positively to the '20-point plan', and more to avoid bearing the guilt of 'refusing peace'. Trump pushed the '20-point plan' just to create a historical achievement of 'successful mediation' for himself. The '20-point plan' is a platter plan that is eager for success and inherently deficient. It has no specific implementation details, no mandatory road map, and fails to respond to the core concerns of all parties." Li Zixin said.
On October 4, the Italian people held a * in solidarity with Palestine, demanding that Israel immediately stop its military operations against Gaza and release the personnel of the "Global Fortitude Flotilla". Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Jing
With deep attitude unclear, the future is still full of variables
Even if the "20-point plan" and Egyptian negotiations can achieve a ceasefire, the future of the Gaza Strip and its people is still unpredictable. During the negotiations, Hamas refused to deploy any foreign troops to Gaza, and explicitly opposed former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to be responsible for supervising the future governance of the Gaza Strip according to the "20-point plan".
Li Zixin believes that even if the agreement can be signed during this negotiation, it will encounter great difficulties at the implementation level. It is difficult to comprehensively resolve some core concerns in this negotiation and establish an effective supervision and guarantee mechanism. Israel's internal political game is the fundamental driving force for Israel's military actions, and external pressure can only make Israel make temporary adjustments. In the long run, Israel will still seek comprehensive security control of Gaza.
“The ceasefire that may have contributed to the talks is good news for mitigating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, but there is still some uncertainty about the future course of Gaza,” Wang said, noting that it is now unclear how firm the Trump administration’s determination to put pressure on Israel does not rule out the future Israeli rupture agreement to resume the war; a high level of mistrust between Israel and any deviation in the ceasefire implementation process can trigger new conflict or confrontation; and that there are great differences between the two sides about the future political arrangement for Gaza, which is a key factor in determining whether the future ceasefire will last.”
Egyptian President Sisi said on October 8 that the ceasefire negotiations had made positive progress, and he called on all parties to seize the opportunity to end the Gaza conflict.
Kaba-Maria told the Beijing Daily client reporter that the U.S. emphasized “the focus on Gaza’s reconstruction,” meaning that the future of Gaza is no longer a mere military issue, but more seen as a logistical and economic challenge.
“The escalation of the Israeli dispute over the years, the delay in finding a solution, has ultimately led to the outbreak of the events of October 7 two years ago,” Kaba-Maria said, adding that the two-year conflict once again proves that the settlement of the Palestinian issue is in no way possible by force but only by political means.
Source: Beijing Daily Client
Publisher: White Wave