Source: Shangguan News
On the 7th, a new round of conflict between Hamas and Israel has been running for two years, while the two sides are negotiating a ceasefire in Egypt.
On the same day, Hamas made two major demands, highlighting the complexity of Pakistan's negotiations in the context of mutual distrust, but Hamas senior member Tahir Nunu's media adviser said on 8th that Hamas and Israel exchanged lists of persons to be released, and that all parties to participate in a new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations were "full of optimism".
The U.S. delegate, who has already departed to Egypt on the 7th, will also make the opening of talks on the 8th, allegedly preparing for the "no-deal vow not to leave".
With the sides on the table of negotiations, will this long-delayed geo-tragedy mark the dawn of the end of the tunnel?
Three trends
After the Trump administration proposed the "20-point plan" aimed at ending the Gaza conflict, both Hamas and Israel recognized the overall principles of the plan, namely ceasefire and release of detainees, but it was difficult to reach a consensus on some key issues.
A source familiar with the negotiations said that the negotiations on the 7th had been adjourned, and the atmosphere had improved compared with the 6th. In view of the presence of senior mediators, the negotiations on the 8th will be a decisive signal to judge whether progress is expected.
Talking about the latest talks, Liu Zemin, Professor of the Institute of Middle East Research at Shanghai Foreign Language University and Vice President of the China Middle East SocietyNote the three.
The first is to exchange the list of persons to be released.
Although it is not clear whether the list includes "all members" or only "part", on the whole, after several days of gaming, the parties may reach a phased arrangement, which not only meets Trump's expectation for an armistice, but also reduces the pressure of Kazakhstan and Israel. However, the outside world is still cautious about whether a package of consensus can be reached and the foundation for long-term peace can be laid.
Secondly, Hamas made two major demands on the 7th, one is that Israel permanently end its occupation of the Gaza Strip, which must be internationally guaranteed; and the other is that the release of Israeli detainees will be linked to the full withdrawal of Israeli troops.
This reflects the serious lack of mutual trust between Kazakhstan and Israel. At the beginning of this year, Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement with Israel, but Israel restarted the war in March. Various lessons have made Hamas increasingly convinced that the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops and the complete release of detainees should be achieved "simultaneously".
Furthermore, this highlights the ambiguity of the “20 Points Plan” on many core issues, especially the lack of clear arrangements for Hamas’ disarmament and the release of hostages, which leads to greater uncertainty. On the other hand, Hamas is reluctant because the “20 Points Plan” aims to exclude Hamas from the future political structure of Gaza, and also raises Israeli concerns about whether Hamas’ remaining forces will rebound.
Third, the Israeli army continued the previous day's offensive on Gaza on the 7th and ignored Trump's request to "immediately stop the bombing."
This reflects the fact that the “20-point plan” is essentially a step-by-step implementation in the game, where Israel, as a major military player, will force Hamas to yield through offensive negotiations.In addition, the United States is in a relationship of “both cooperation and struggle” – Israel is both “under pressure from the United States and the international community to accept the plan” and wants to take the initiative to negotiate through military action, and is expected to not give up until specific terms are negotiated.
buried in danger.
Liu believes that whether the parties will be able to talk next depends on many factors, and the more important thing is whether the United States can put enough pressure on Israel.
“The talks could lead to some outcomes, such as a limited ceasefire, but given the mutual distrust and concerns of Hamas about its own fate, a long-term ceasefire may not be easy.”
Liu Zhongmin also mentioned that the "20-point plan" is essentially a plan that "benefits" Israel and does not mention the "two-state solution". Even if a phased ceasefire is reached on this basis, it may lay hidden dangers for long-term peace.
First, the "20-point plan" will not only exclude Hamas from the political structure of Gaza after the war, but also exclude the Palestinian National Authority for a certain period of time. It will be unavoidable that Gaza is jointly managed by the West and Israel, similar to the colonial mandate rule in history. Gaza may even be separated from Palestine and become an autonomous institution similar to the West Bank and controlled by Israel.
Second, the Palestinian National Authority, which represents Palestine internationally, is in an even more helpless situation. Israel intends to advance plans such as the expansion of West Bank settlements. The prospects for Pakistan's statehood may be difficult because the three major national elements of territory, people and sovereignty are all in serious crises. More obstacles will be placed in the realization of the "two-state solution".
Multiple shock
In the more than 700 days and nights since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the fighting in Gaza has almost never stopped. According to statistics from the Gaza Health Department, Israeli military operations have caused more than 230,000 casualties.
Behind the cold numbers is the withering of fresh lives. According to statistics, a child dies every 52 minutes in Gaza, almost all the people have been displaced, and more than 500,000 people have fallen into famine...
Liu Zhongmin pointed out that looking at this geopolitical dispute on the second anniversary of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, its duration, scope, and number of casualties far exceed previous Middle East wars, and it has a profound impact on the Middle East and even the world.
First of all, for Palestine and Israel, the humanitarian disaster has intensified and bilateral relations have regressed.
"The Palestinian-Israeli issue has undergone profound changes. In particular, Israel strongly opposes the 'two-state solution' and the United States supports it, which makes the relationship between Hamas, the Palestinian National Authority and Israel more complicated." Liu Zhongmin said, "This complexity is manifested in the confrontation between Kazakhstan and Israel and the marginalization of the Palestinian National Authority. The United Nations is difficult to play its role because of the 'one-vote veto' of the United States. Both Palestinian-Israeli relations and the Palestinian issue have undergone serious retrogression."
Second, at the regional level, the outflow effect of the crisis is prominent, and the conflict between Israel and the countries in the region is rising.
In the past two years, Israel has engaged in confrontation and conflict with the entire "arc of resistance"-frequent attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi armed forces in Yemen, attacks on targets in Syria and Iran, and triggering the "12-day Israel-Iraq War" involved by the United States. From a pure security perspective, Israel's military security environment has improved, but its rising contradictions with regional countries have also made its "security island" effect more prominent.
The security of the Gulf is threatened – Israel’s strikes on Qatar have spread conflict, and countries in the region such as Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia are concerned that Israeli military expansion not only threatens the stability of the Eastern Mediterranean but also affects the Gulf region, so security cooperation has been strengthened.
However, it is worth noting that although the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has worsened the security environment in the Middle East, it has not reversed the "wave of reconciliation" in the region. The reconciliation between the three major powers of Arab countries, Iran and Turkey, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, continues to deepen.
Finally, at the global level, the influence of many countries has been adjusted, and the international order has been impacted.
Israel has been internationally isolated, and several Western countries have announced recognition of the Palestinian state. Some commentators believe that U.S. hegemony is relatively declining and favoring Israel is unpopular. The "wave of recognition" may not immediately bring fairness and justice, but it at least reflects that some Western countries have begun to respond to the calls of the global South.
Russia's influence in the Middle East declined, Assad's regime in Syria fell, and Hezbollah in Iran and Lebanon were weakened.
The overall trend of U.S. hegemony in the Middle East has not changed, but intervention in the Middle East has shown itself as a new intervention to catch up and avoid falling into the bush of war.The U.S. practice of asyluming Israel while betraying other allies has also boosted the strategic autonomy of the Middle East countries, especially its Gulf allies.
The profound disaster caused by the conflict has provoked global thinking about safeguarding international fairness and improving existing international mechanisms.
Liu Zhongmin believes that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict demonstrates a series of complex situations arising from the Palestinian issue as the core issue in the Middle East. The inability of the international community and the Middle East region to face Israel's strong expansion in turn highlights the weakness of international morality, international legal system and international order., that is, the tragic retreat of international politics towards power politics and the law of the jungle.
The long-term cycle of conflict between Palestinians and Israelis is due to historical complaints and religious disputes, as well as the consequences of long-term interference and manipulation by individual powers outside the territory.The parties should respect the sovereignty of all countries, abide by the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, and adhere to the fair and peaceful path based on the “two-country plan”.