After two years of bloody fighting, the gunfire in Gaza finally stopped this year. Looking around, there are streets flattened by tank tracks and buildings blown into skeletons everywhere. A ceasefire agreement was signed in a hurry, Israeli armored forces began to withdraw, and Hamas also stepped out of the tunnels to declare its acceptance of reality.

However, this conflict, which caused more than 200,000 casualties, strangely didn't have a winner. When neither side of the war can raise a glass to celebrate, a fisherman's profit appears quietly...

Who¡¯s the coffin, who¡¯s the stone?

It has to be said that this ceasefire agreement is like a mirror that clearly reflects the desperate situations of the two warring parties. It is not a victory declaration, but more like a stop-loss list that both parties have to sign after exhausting all options.

For Hamas, signing the agreement was tantamount to severing its own arms. They agreed to release the last hostages in their hands, hand over control of Gaza, and stop all armed activities, which appeared to be a complete surrender.

But in reality, it¡¯s a classic strategy of spatial change of time.Hamas uses nominal power in exchange for the organization¡¯s core asset ¨C the chance to survive.

According to the ancient Greek historian Cushidide, the weak sometimes accept harsh terms just to wait for the time. Hamas¡¯ move, similar to that of North Vietnam, was a temporary withdrawal in order to return to the future. The hostages were gone, but they unexpectedly left the Palestinian issue, continuing to occupy the headlines of the world.

In Israel, the situation is more complicated. Tactically, the israeli army performed exemplary, striking with precision, taking control of northern gaza for a time and eliminating thousands of militants.

However, these tactical "good news" cannot conceal the huge strategic failure. The ultimate purpose of military action is to serve politics. As Clausewitz warned, when the means of war themselves transcend political goals, victory becomes meaningless.

Israel is caught in such a quagmire that they have won every street battle but lost the legitimacy of the whole war. The overwhelming moral condemnation worldwide has plunged Israel into unprecedented diplomatic isolation. Many European countries such as Spain and Norway even directly recognized the Palestinian state, which was unimaginable in the past.

The biggest winner has emerged.

At home, extended reserve service has dragged down the economy, and people have begun to question the huge cost of the war. Data from the Jerusalem Post shows that support for the wartime cabinet has plummeted to 31%. The Israeli people's feeling of "victory" is hollow, just like Napoleon's victory in Moscow, which eventually became a shackle that dragged down themselves.

The signing of this agreement is tantamount to declaring the bankruptcy of Israel's core strategic goal of "eradicating Hamas". Unable to digest the territory of Gaza for a long time, they were forced to withdraw their troops from a place they could not conquer, admitting that military victory could not be translated into any political gains.

While a Gaza mother was still searching for the bodies of her child in the rubble, a photograph of a far-off US Lake mansion revealed the real winner of the conflict.

In the photo, US President Trump is raising a glass to celebrate. He regards himself as the leader and mediator behind the ceasefire agreement. He was the one who had quietly reaped all the dividends in this bloody chess game.

This mediation is a perfect investment with zero cost and high return for the United States. Not a single American soldier was killed or injured, and not a penny of financial aid was invested, but the geopolitical landscape of the entire Middle East was shaken.

Whoever makes the rules has everything

Soon after, we saw that Saudi Arabia, which had originally approached China and Russia, slowed the pace of energy negotiations, while the once hesitant UAE also resumed its F-35 fighter purchase program, all indicating that the Middle East¡¯s oil-dollar system, under the clever manipulation of the United States, became stable again.

This is simply a modern copy of Kissinger¡¯s crossover diplomacy, but the cost is so low that it can be ignored.

At the same time, Trump also created a crown of "peacemaker" for himself. This political card with great weight in the campaign year allows him to easily tell voters that he can achieve the greatest thing at the lowest cost.

However, that¡¯s not all. Naval strategist Mahatma Gandhi once said that whoever can define the rules has real control. An ambiguous clause in the agreement about Gaza¡¯s ¡°de-militarization¡± is the future dirt buried by the United States.

This clause is not explicitly enforced and supervised by anyone, leaving a huge operating space for future U.S. military intervention.A wonderful scenario has been written: money from wealthy Arab nations to rebuild Gaza, while the restored security order is dominated by the United States.

Halftime break, not the final whistle

So, don¡¯t be naive, this ceasefire agreement is not the cornerstone of peace, it¡¯s more like a culinary dish that is breeding up the next round of more fierce conflict. The UN¡¯s preliminary estimate is that rebuilding Gaza will take at least $10 billion.

What's even more dangerous is where the disbanded Hamas militants will go? It is very likely that they will take off their military uniforms, pick up tools, and transform themselves into workers in the reconstruction team, continuing to bury the fire of armed struggle deep in this land.

In the ruins of Gaza, helpless civilians are still struggling to survive, and the political divide within Israel is growing.People are shouting ¡°do not false victory¡±, a sign that the internal trauma of the war will continue to ferment.

The famous geostrategist Brzezinski once compared the Middle East to the ¡°testfield of empire power¡±, where the logic of the game of great powers has never changed, only changed the way of playing.

conclusion

History always repeats itself. In 1918, the armistice agreement of World War I was signed in Compiègne Forest, but it did not bring real peace. Instead, it laid the groundwork for World War II more than twenty years later. The same is true for this year's ceasefire agreement in Gaza.

It is a mirror that depicts failure; it is a lever used to push power; it is a seed that predicts future conflict.The root of tragedy is that no matter how the terms of the agreement are written, the rules on the board never change.

The geopolitical gear still turns relentlessly when the gunfire stops, and those who are moved and sacrificed on the chessboard are always the most helpless people who have paid the full price for this endless game with their own blood and tears.

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