North Korea is about to hold a large-scale military parade. Kim Jong Un has arranged Foreign Minister Cui Shanji's visit to China in advance. What is the significance of such a time connection?
In September, Kim Jong-un visited China for a Chinese parade.
Not long ago, when China held a military parade at the 93rd National Congress, North Korea's top leader Kim Jong Un visited China again after six and a half years. China received him with the highest courtesy.
Shortly after Kim Jong-un returned to China, North Korean Foreign Minister Cui Shanji also took a special plane on September 27th and embarked on a visit to China.
Considering that North Korea will hold a major military parade soon to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers 'Party of Korea, Kim Jong-un specially arranged for his very trusted Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hee to visit China. It is also likely that he would like to invite the Chinese side to attend the next parade.
From the logic of international exchanges, the attendance arrangement of important celebrations has always been a "barometer" of state relations.
North Korean Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hee
For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin has attended many major celebrations in China, and China has also attended the Russian Victory Day military parade. These interactions have conveyed clear strategic support signals.
For North Korea, inviting the Chinese side to attend the parade is precisely the hope that through this open interaction, the two sides will demonstrate their coordinated stance in regional affairs.
However, North Korea chose to hold a military parade at this time and win China's support through its visit to China. The underlying reason lies in the current complicated security situation in Northeast Asia.
The parade is both a window to North Korea’s national defense strength and its strategic tool to cope with external pressure, and China’s attitude will directly affect the balance of regional forces.
The US-South Korea military alliance continues to strengthen
The current situation in Northeast Asia faces multiple challenges: the US-Korean military alliance continues to strengthen, and the two sides frequently hold joint military exercises, bringing external pressure to the security of the peninsula;
In addition, since the beginning of this year, the South Korean military has twice "warning shots" against the DPRK, further aggravating the security contest of the DPRK.
At the same time, the process of denuclearization of the peninsula has fallen into stagnation, and the channels for dialogue between relevant parties are not open.
In this context, the North Korean parade often carries a double strategic intention:
On the one hand, by displaying new weapons and equipment, it demonstrates national defense strength to deal with external deterrence;
On the other hand, by appropriately demonstrating strength, we can avoid escalation of the situation and maintain overall strategic restraint.
North Korean military parade in history
The North Korean military parade in history has repeatedly reflected this "balance between deterrence and restraint".
For example, at the 2012 "Sun Day" parade, North Korea for the first time demonstrated the KN-08 type intercontinental ballistic missile, transmitting signals of national defense independence to the outside world, but did not carry out nuclear tests and other excessive actions;
During the "Sun Day" parade reported in April 2017, North Korea displayed a new missile similar to the "Popopl-M" and also avoided concerns about a nuclear test. South Korean analysts also admitted that North Korea "maintained restraint."
This strategy of "showing strength without crossing the line" not only safeguards the dignity of North Korea, but also leaves room for diplomatic maneuvers.
North Korea displayed missile troops during the 2017 Sun Festival parade
Peace and stability in Northeast Asia are always inseparable from the coordination and cooperation between China and the DPRK.
China has always advocated resolving the peninsula issue through dialogue and opposes any behavior that aggravates tensions.
Judging from past cases, China's role as a "balancer" on the peninsula issue has played a role many times.
During the tense situation on the peninsula in 2018, China actively promoted multilateral dialogue between the DPRK, the US and the DPRK, which contributed to the gradual easing of the peninsula issue.
North Korea hopes that the Chinese side will attend the parade, and also wants to borrow the positive influence of the Chinese side to create a more favorable external environment for North Korea, but also to transmit to other countries the "dialogue priority" signal to avoid further escalation of the regional situation.
North Korea's top leader Kim Jong Un
The close attention of the international public opinion to China's high-level interactions is essentially an emphasis on the balance of forces in Northeast Asia.
China has always adhered to an independent and peaceful foreign policy and has never changed its position on the peninsula issue.
From Kim Jong-un's personal trip to China to attend the 93rd parade, and then to the follow-up visit to China, a series of events outlined a clear trajectory of China's strategic cooperation.
In the complex and changing present of the situation in Northeast Asia, this cooperation is not only a natural extension of bilateral relations, but also an important support forining regional peace and stability.
The Middle Relationship
In the current complex situation on the peninsula, the signal of “strict cooperation” transmitted by the DPRK through high-level interactions has already had a positive impact on the regional situation.
It not only allows North Korea to gain strategic support under external pressure, but also allows China to maintain its say on the peninsula issue, and also demonstrates to the outside world the possibility of resolving regional issues through dialogue.
In the accelerated northeast Asia, this stable bilateral cooperation is undoubtedly a difficult “cappuccino”.