The 20-point "peace package" dropped by Trump just landed, the entire Middle East situation directly turned into a spy drama scenario, which turned out to be blurred.The front leg gave Hamas a four to five-day "order deadline", the back leg Hamas threw a response, the world is shouting "Hamas surrendered", and the result is no more than two days to explode new progress in negotiations, this operation is simply more stimulating than breaking the blind box.
Speaking of the background of Trump's wave of operations, he suggested that the 20 points came out, and online people shouted "This is to ask for the Nobel Peace Prize".
Hamas has no bargaining chips to begin with, and the plan also takes into account the demands of Arab countries and Israel. At first glance, it does look like that. But the key is that Trump did not give a "multiple choice question" but a "time-limited choice question", clearly telling Hamas: either take it or wait for Israel to raze Gaza to the ground.
On the 5th of October, Hamas’ response came out, and the public opinion exploded directly. Everyone felt it was a “confession” hammer, because in two of the most crucial issues, Hamas gave in. One agreed to the release of the people, and the other was willing to hand over, but not to the “Peace Council” led by Trump, but to a Palestinian native agency recognized by an Arab and Islamic state.
These two concessions are basically the same as declaring that Hamas can’t be harder anymore, after all, the cards in the hand have been played out.But you think this is over?It’s too naive.
On October 6 to 8, Hamas and Israel held a three-day meeting in Egypt's Sham Sheikh, which was not a formal form, a real-world negotiation, but an indirect negotiation between Egypt and Qatar. This wave of operation directly pushed the "surrender theory" to the friction on the ground, with the previous concessions being the mattress, the real negotiations just started.
On October 7, Hamas directly threw out its own "anti-killing conditions". The core was two: it was fine to end the war, but Israel must withdraw its troops, and it must be guaranteed by the international community. This translates to "Want me to cease fire and surrender my guns? Okay, withdraw your troops first, and you must find a reliable third party to watch you, otherwise there is no talk."
This negotiation skill is simply superb. On the surface, it takes over Trump's fault, but in fact it takes back the initiative. It is exactly the same as the "inspection first and payment" routine in the mall, and it does not suffer any losses at all. More importantly, on October 8, senior Hamas official Taher Nunu directly announced that he had exchanged lists of people to be released with Israel, and that they were based on the standards and numbers agreed upon by both parties.
Nuno also specifically spoke, saying that the mediators are clearing the obstacles, the parties are very optimistic, the negotiations focus on the withdrawal, ceasefire and exchange of people specific mechanisms. You see this pace, from "confession" to "on the table negotiations conditions" to "exchange list", three days to finish the process of others three months, Hamas this wave is very efficient.
To put it bluntly, it is not for no reason why Hamas dares to be so tough, but it is indeed at the end of its strength. Let's first talk about why we can't hold on, which depends on the actual loss data. Since the outbreak of the conflict in October 2023 to October 5, 2025, 67139 people have been killed and as many as 169583 people have been injured in Gaza. Since the resumption of military operations on March 18 this year, there have been 13549 new dead and 57542 injured. This is just casualties, and the damage to military facilities is even more fatal.
Israel released news in August that it blocked a seven-kilometre-long Hamas "central pathway" in the northern Bethhan region of Gaza, used more than 20,000 cubic meters of light blocking materials, and demolished other 2.4 kilometers of underground facilities.
You know, tunnels are the lifeblood of Hamas. They can hide both people and weapons. Now that the main roads have been blocked and the branches have been demolished, it is equivalent to exposing the family's wealth to the light. What's even worse is that Israel has not taken serious action yet. The "big killers" such as drones, unmanned combat robots, and unmanned tanks have not yet been put on stage. If they are really used, there will be no way to hide in Gaza.
Trump gave an ultimatum after pinching this point, bluntly saying that he would fully support Israel's "clearance" if he did not take the move. Of course Hamas knew the consequences, so it took a step back first, but taking a step back did not mean surrendering, but changed its style of play.
After all, we still have hostage chips and the attention of the international community. How can we easily admit defeat? This was a fight with two people. One party stopped first when he saw that he couldn't defeat him, but immediately took out his mobile phone and called for others to judge. In essence, he had changed the battlefield and continued the game.
The current situation is like an unfinished game of chess. The movements of the two "chess players" Hamas and Israel are basically clear, but there are still a few "chess watchers" nearby who are holding back their small calculations. This is The key to whether peace can be achieved.
The first is the Israeli right wing, Netanyahu is a loose, but the radicals who want to build the "Great Israel" did not promise. they had wanted to annex the West Bank, expand settlements, now let them withdraw troops and abandon Gaza, which is equal to break their minds, and must have a mess with Trump.
The second key role is the Arab state. Trump wants to engage in a “double agency” governance, himself as the chairman of the committee to manage the general situation, then a professional agency composed of Arab states and Palestinian institutions to handle the specific matters. But the question is, these eight major Arab countries come as “working” or “speakers”? Can the PAO join?
The Arab countries definitely want real power, after all, post-war governance is directly related to their geological interests, and it is impossible to empty Trump to be accompanied.There is also the issue of de-militarization, Hamas said, "If you withdraw the army, I will take the gun," seems to be a matter of time, in fact, a question of trust.
Think and understand that Hamas has eaten the loss of Israel, before several times after the ceasefire, Israel suddenly airstrikes, now asking for "first withdrawal after guns" is also afraid to repeat the same thing.
However, this problem is actually not difficult to solve. As long as international guarantees are in place, the new authority takes the lead, and the two sides finalize the timetable, it can basically be solved. So looking back now, the context of this matter is very clear. Hamas's "surrender" is false, but its "retreat to advance" is true. It has brought negotiations back to its familiar track through concessions, and it has also gained the initiative through the prisoner exchange list.
Trump's "peace package" framework is there, but the details inside are all a pit, one filled with a piece of breaking inside Israel, the demands of the Arab countries, the implementation of international guarantees, each of which is a "time bomb" that could trigger the situation.
However, there is not without optimism. After all, Hamas and Israel have exchanged personnel lists, and negotiations are still advancing, which shows that neither side wants to fight any longer. The price of more than 60,000 lives is too high. If Israel can really withdraw its troops and abandon the "Greater Israel" plan, and the Arab countries can sit down and discuss the governance plan, it is really possible for Palestinian statehood to be realized. When the time comes, it will join the mutual defense treaty between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and the "two-state solution" will not be It's a painting pie.
But we also have to shake a little cold water, Trump's Nobel Prize dream is not so well rounded. and not to say these to be solved trouble, about his "I am the president I said counted" stance, the Arab country does not have to buy the account. and if the Israeli right wing is really up, Netanyahu can not hold or an unknown number.
Therefore, the wave of peace in the Middle East has really come, but it is not easy to say whether the shadow of war can be dispersed.The game between Hamas and Israel is over, followed by Trump and the Arab countries, the right wing of Israel.
What we can do is to squat and follow up, and see whether this international drama, which is more exciting than the spy war drama, ends happily or unfinished. After all, peace can never be done by one or two people's plans. Only when all parties let go of their selfishness can it really be implemented.