«--[· Preface ·]--»
The situation between Russia and Ukraine suddenly changed, and the scene that China was worried about finally happened: besides North Korea, Russia's second military aid country emerged.
On October 7, the Russian State Duma held a collective meeting. This was the meeting, which directly passed the military cooperation agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Cuba. The concrete content of the agreement has not yet been fully disclosed, but according to the Russian satellite news agency: the agreement defines the goal of bilateral military cooperation.
«--[·Cuba Interventions: How Much Help Will It Help Russia?·]--»
On October 7th, a meeting held by the Russian State Duma caused ripples in the international situation again. The meeting adopted a military cooperation agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Cuba. Although the specific content has not been fully disclosed, the Russian satellite news agency & radio revealed that the agreement clarified the goals of bilateral military cooperation, and may even follow the example of the "mutual assistance" agreement between Russia and the DPRK, stipulating that one country needs to provide military assistance when another country is beaten.
The news appears to be a sign of previous Western media reports — several Western media said that the U.S. State Department reminded allies that Cuba had sent 5,000 militants to Russia to assist it in attacking Ukraine.
The intervention of the Cuban army may provide some support to Russia on a tactical level. Historically, the Cuban army has been known for combat courage, and during the Soviet era, they have participated in overseas military operations several times.
For example, in the Angolan War of 1975, 25,000 Cuban troops participated in the battle, eventually helping the Angolan People's Liberation Movement to win; in 1977, the Cuban army again in the Ethiopian-Somali War, deployed 40 MiG-23 fighters and 250 tanks, defeating the Somali army.
These rich practical combat experiences give the Cuban soldiers a certain advantage in both mobile operations and regular warfare. On the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, Russia is facing problems with insufficient force, especially the lack of quality infantry. The Cuban army is disciplined and organized, and may be able to take on tasks such as small divisions infiltrating attacks and guiding Russian artillery strikes.
In addition, the excellent guerrilla capabilities of the Cuban army may also provide new ideas for the Russian army to operate in complex terrain. However, the strength of the Cuban army itself also has a clear shortage. Currently, most of the Cuban air force's MiG-29 fighters cannot take off, the navy's ships are also basically in the old state, the army equipped with T-55 tanks, BTR armored vehicles, etc., there is a large gap with the needs of modern warfare.
The limitations of these equipment could, to a certain extent, weaken the actual role of the Cuban army in the battlefield. From an economic perspective, Russia’s high salaries for Cuban soldiers may, to a certain extent, stimulate its military enthusiasm.
Russia isly spending $2,300 to $2,400 a month on Cuban soldiers, which is equivalent to the income of an average person in Cuba for 100 years.For Cuba, which has long been hit by U.S. sanctions and poor economic conditions, such economic benefits may be one of the major reasons for its choice to intervene in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
“The impact on China...”
Cuba's intervention may make Sino-US relations more complicated. In recent years, Sino-US relations have been in a state of tension, and the game between the two countries in trade, science and technology, military and other fields has been escalating. Although the heads of state of China and the United States recently held a long telephone conversation, sending a positive signal of replacing confrontation with dialogue, the military cooperation between Cuba and Russia has undoubtedly added new variables to Sino-US relations.
The United States may link Cuba's actions with China and further increase pressure on China. Previously, the United States had imposed sanctions on countries participating in Cuba's "overseas medical service" project on the grounds of so-called "forced labor" and warned countries that cooperated with Cuba to "think twice".
After Cuba intervened in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States may use this as an excuse to strengthen economic sanctions and technical blockade against China, and may even smear and accuse China on international occasions. In addition, Cuba's intervention may also affect Sino-US cooperation in international affairs.
On some global issues, such as climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, China and the United States need to cooperate together to make progress, but Cuba’s military cooperation with Russia could lead to more U.S. distrust of China, affecting both countries’ willingness to cooperate in these areas.
Although China and Russia have always emphasized the non-alliance nature of bilateral relations, Cuba’s military cooperation with Russia could put China under more pressure in China-Russia relations. Russia’s military presence in Cuba could be seen by the United States as a threat to its “backdoors”, thereby increasing sanctions on Russia.
China, as an important partner of Russia, is likely to face U.S. sanctions. In addition, Cuba’s intervention may also affect China’s position on Ukraine. China has always held an objective and fair stance, actively encouraging negotiations and calling for dispute resolution through dialogue.
But Cuba’s military cooperation with Russia may have some impact on China’s image in the international community, and may even be misunderstood by some countries as China’s military actions in support of Russia.
“How does China respond?”
In the face of military cooperation between Cuba and Russia, China needs to adopt a cautious and flexible strategy to avoid unnecessary conflict while safeguarding its own interests.
At the same time, China should actively appeal to resolve disputes through dialogue and negotiation and promote the international community to jointly safeguard peace and stability in the region and the world.
China should strengthen communication and coordination with the United States, Russia, Cuba and other parties, and keep abreast of the positions and demands of all parties. In its communication with the United States, China should emphasize its neutral position on the Ukrainian issue and oppose any form of unilateral sanctions and military intervention.
In communication with Russia, China should remind its attention to the possible impact of Cuba’s behavior on China-Russia relations, and call on Russia to take a restraining stance.In communication with Cuba, China should emphasize the traditional friendship between China and the Middle East, hoping that Cuba can handle military cooperation with Russia with caution and avoid adverse impacts on regional stability.
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The military cooperation between Cuba and Russia has undoubtedly added new uncertainty to the international situation. For China, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. China needs to stay awake in complex situations, adhere to independent foreign policy, strengthen communication and coordination with all parties, deepen cooperation with Latin American countries and enhance its comprehensive strength.